

Jay Kaeppel
6.7K posts

@jaykaeppel
Jay is Senior Market Analyst at https://t.co/BNBZdQZHaj and author of Seasonal Stock Market Trends (Wiley). Trader, writer, instructor and former CTA.



Producer Price Index just spiked to +9.8% year-over-year. Historically, this has only happened in 16% of months since 1914. When it did, the Dow fell 76% of the time. Median loss: -7.3%. $1 invested during every high-PPI period over 112 years turned into $0.29. Read full analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppels…




Junk bonds often act like equities in disguise. Historically, junk bonds tend to move with equities. When the two diverge - especially when stocks make new highs but junk debt does not - it can signal underlying stress. Right now, we’re seeing that kind of non-confirmation between the S&P 500 and JNK. Get a forecast: ow.ly/Gi6N50YZweF

Everyone says “this will end badly” but it won’t end badly until everyone stops saying “this will end badly”. An example: In summer 2007 I had clients yelling at me for underperforming, not making enough money. Today? I have clients asking me when they should sell it all.




Retail traders are buying puts at a historic rate while $SPY hits all-time highs. This has happened 10 times since 2002. One year later: higher every single time. Median return: +20.76%. Read Full Analysis: users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppels…

#silver - Multiple swings at or around all time highs may not be a good sign.

If you believe the market is wrong, you'll eventually lose all your money. There is no right, there is no wrong, there is only price. And the ONLY thing that matters is how you respond to it above and below your entry.

The chase for momentum has gone vertical....literally.

When the market rips like this most traders spend most of their energy doubting it and worried about when it will end. Yea in a bull market, especially one like this everybody “can make money” but it doesn’t feel natural when stuff works so well and keeps trending higher so instead of leaning in to the easy feeling, all the time is spent being suspicious of it.



There is no way to avoid losses or losing streaks. Any attempt to avoid what cannot be avoided will trap you forever in a loop of improvement. Treat them as something that will inevitably occur. Losses and losing streaks are part of the system, and the system must be designed so that they themselves become part of the edge. This is not a matter of mindset. It is a matter of mathematics.

Good book. If you want to learn. 🙂 And after reading it, you will almost certainly know more than 90% of people selling courses/services on trading options out there.





this is financial advice