Jay Kaeppel
6.5K posts
@jaykaeppel
Jay is Senior Market Analyst at https://t.co/BNBZdQZHaj and author of Seasonal Stock Market Trends (Wiley). Trader, writer, instructor and former CTA.
who's excited for the Palladium pullback? -33.9% from highs...
While the 200-day moving average is a useful and relevant guidepost, the 2023 correction reminds us that there are no standalone magic bullets in markets. The S&P 500 had FIVE red closes below the 200-day and then reversed sharply. The longer below, the more relevant it becomes. Click image to enlarge.
what is the trend? $TSX $SPX $QQQ
When bond yields start gaining upward momentum, equity returns tend to diminish. @granthawkridge
S&P 500 Financial Stocks just formed a Death Cross ☠️ for the first time since October 2023 🚨
The important thing isn't that the market's oversold -- it's how the market responds to its oversold condition. Meanwhile, Thursday's gap was finally filled.
Everyone’s staring at price. Almost nobody is watching this. Financials are already in correction territory for 2026, with $XLF down about 13% from its peak, but the real story is under the surface. The Bullish Percent for financials just sank back to its lowest level since the April 2025 washout, meaning only a tiny slice of the sector is still on buy signals. Not a ‘back up the truck’ call… but when a sector’s in a double‑digit drawdown and its breadth gauge is buried, and we are getting a bullish divergence building, that’s usually around the time where bounces are born.
Are you prepared to potentially trade and invest through a couple decades of higher rates? Most aren't. Have you noticed how many correlations have broken down over the last six years? Most haven't. A new secular regime in rates is here. Adapt or get left behind.
The S&P 500 has averaged +24% in the 12 months after an oil shock. Crude prices have surged 20% in 48 hours just 8 times in the last 40 years. Stocks were up in 7 of 8 instances. History favors the bulls.
attention all you who are decidedly negative and pessimistic... there are 70 large-cap U.S. stocks that are up more than +30% YTD... how many do you own? study the charts, learn to understand how to spot demand and supply inflection... do the work... keep learning...
Want to know where bond returns are headed? Just look at today’s yield. Over the last 50 years, the correlation between starting yields and forward 7-year returns is 97%. Higher yields = higher future returns. Lower yields = lower future returns. Bond investing is just math.
