Lunar

My girlfriend asked why I've been staring at weather forecasts for 3 weeks straight "You're not even a meteorologist. What are you doing?" I showed her my Polymarket balance $300 → $9,580 She hasn't called it "nonsense" since Polymarket prices contracts the same way Claude prices words - softmax. The exact same function I gave Claude two formulas and 50 live contracts: f* = (p·b − q) / b P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) The bot doesn't watch news. It watches numbers. NOAA says 87% chance of rain, market says 71% - that's a 16-cent gap. It buys I'm use for copytrade bots: t.me/PolyGunSniperB… No opinions. No gut feeling. Just the spread It checks every hour. Most hours it does nothing. 46 out of 50 contracts get one word: SKIP When it finds a gap over 5% - Kelly sizes the position, enters, and walks away One contract sat at 0.34 for two days while the formula kept returning 0.52. Nobody noticed. The bot waited. Resolved YES 74.2% win rate. Wrong 26% of the time. Doesn't matter - Kelly makes sure the wins always outweigh the losses 87% of Polymarket wallets lose money against this kind of math. Not because they're dumb. Because they trade on feelings and the formula doesn't have any The code fits in one file. The formulas are on Wikipedia 647 trades. It still hasn't stopped My girlfriend still thinks I'm "doing something weird with the weather" The bot made $47 while she was saying that

@nosp321 Only math and some line code in claude

The guy makes $2-5k a day using AI agents. The way to the result isn’t so difficult as you think. You just need : > ClawdBot or Claude Code > Some free days (3 enough) > Filter best strategies for trading > Use AI to check how it works > Start betting real money Formula : f* = (p·b − q) / b P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) I think one of the most famous and popular for making money. But people still keep ignoring it every day. Time has come to fix the matrix and use math for all 100%.

@kuznetsjeka yeah bro

@LunarResearcher LFG

My girlfriend asked why I've been staring at weather forecasts for 3 weeks straight "You're not even a meteorologist. What are you doing?" I showed her my Polymarket balance $300 → $9,580 She hasn't called it "nonsense" since Polymarket prices contracts the same way Claude prices words - softmax. The exact same function I gave Claude two formulas and 50 live contracts: f* = (p·b − q) / b P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) The bot doesn't watch news. It watches numbers. NOAA says 87% chance of rain, market says 71% - that's a 16-cent gap. It buys I'm use for copytrade bots: t.me/PolyGunSniperB… No opinions. No gut feeling. Just the spread It checks every hour. Most hours it does nothing. 46 out of 50 contracts get one word: SKIP When it finds a gap over 5% - Kelly sizes the position, enters, and walks away One contract sat at 0.34 for two days while the formula kept returning 0.52. Nobody noticed. The bot waited. Resolved YES 74.2% win rate. Wrong 26% of the time. Doesn't matter - Kelly makes sure the wins always outweigh the losses 87% of Polymarket wallets lose money against this kind of math. Not because they're dumb. Because they trade on feelings and the formula doesn't have any The code fits in one file. The formulas are on Wikipedia 647 trades. It still hasn't stopped My girlfriend still thinks I'm "doing something weird with the weather" The bot made $47 while she was saying that

@Daddykcrypto unreal edge on poly

@LunarResearcher ⚡️⚡️⚡️

@CryptoJ as always

@LunarResearcher alpha

@0xwhrrari lmao, u are right

@LunarResearcher girlfriend origin stories in ct are always the best haha

@Calvin_Bandie LFG

@LunarResearcher 🚀

@PredictReport it's wild...

@LunarResearcher meanwhile my bot exists to remind me how slow i am manually i feel this thats wild

me realizing some guy's bot makes one trade a week and earns $8,000/month while i make 10 trades a day and can't afford dinner

@0xwhrrari @polyboostxyz let cook on quick bets

I asked Claude to build me a trading AI agent It now makes 60-second trades on its own while I sleep $200 → $2,800 on 1-minute markets alone @polyboostxyz has Quick Bets 60-second bets on whether an asset goes up or down BTC, ETH, SOL Direction, one minute, result I automated the whole thing The agent pulls live candle data, runs RSI and momentum checks and if the setup is clean - it enters No ping, no confirmation, it just trades Last 3 days: - BTC dipping at $71,800, momentum flipping. Agent goes UP. 1.50x. Hit - ETH breaking below support at $2,210. Agent goes DOWN. 1.45x. Hit - SOL bounce confirmed. Agent re-enters UP. 1.50x. Hit 74 trades, 51 wins, 21 losses Above 65% hit rate - it prints It trades at 4 AM when I'm asleep, it doesn't tilt, it doesn't chase, it waits for the next clean setup Access is FCFS (50 spots) polyboost.xyz/?ref=rari And this is just Quick Bets The main product is parlay stacking - you combine Polymarket events into one express with compounded multipliers That's where the real money is Same agent picks those too, scans open markets, finds mispriced events, builds an express Just stacked 6 events - BTC up, ETH up, +3 more 38.73x multiplier $99 in → $3,834 if it hits

@0xwhrrari if only it were just me

@LunarResearcher but you r happy i guess... 👀

@0xCristal u really HACKER

"MY Son is a Hacker" that's exactly what my mom said it was a Polymarket bot making $600/day while she stood behind me polymarket pricing is basically one equation: softmax, the same math Claude uses to pick the next word: C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) most traders don't even know it exists... they see 35¢ and think cheap my bot sees 35¢ and computes fair value at 55¢, an 20¢ edge two more formulas handle the rest: Kelly for sizing, Bayes for updating I gave Claude the equations and told it: "Find every mispriced contract" $502 → $12,089 on 348 trades, still running 72.6% win rate. wrong plenty, but position sizing makes wins outweigh losses the formulas are on Wikipedia the code fits in one file drop a follow. I'll teach u how to build this bot the only edge: reading the math at 2AM when the market's asleep mom still calls me a hacker she stopped asking about a real job xD

@xmayeth me in 10%, im AI god

@APantsiuk absolutely broo

@LunarResearcher Damn, math really does pay off

My dad looked at my screen and said "what is this, a hacker game?" It was a Polymarket bot making $400 while he was standing behind me He sat down. I explained Polymarket runs on one equation - softmax. The same math Claude uses to pick the next word C(q) = b · ln Σ e^(qi/b) 93% of traders don't know this formula exists They look at 40¢ and think "cheap" My bot looks at 40¢ and calculates the theoretical price is 58¢ I'm use for copytrade bots: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… That's an 18-cent edge per share Two more formulas do the rest: f* = (p·b − q) / b - Kelly Criterion. P(H|E) = P(E|H)·P(H) / P(E) - Bayes. I gave Claude all 4 and said "find every contract the market has wrong" $600 → $10,190. 425 trades. Still running 61.2% win rate - wrong 39% of the time. Doesn't matter. The sizing formula makes sure wins pay more than losses cost 87% of wallets lose money trading against this math The 4 formulas are on Wikipedia. The code fits in one file The only edge: my bot reads them at 3 AM when the market is mispriced and nobody's looking My dad still calls it a hacker game. But he stopped asking when I'm getting a "real job" Only math + code, no more

I gave Claude 4 formulas and $100 and told it to "find me money or death" It came back with $8,000 Not a hypothetical. Not a backtest. Real trades The top 0.04% of Polymarket wallets take 70% of all profits $3.7 billion. Concentrated in a fraction of a percent of traders The difference between them and everyone else isn't insider info I'm use for copytrade bots @CarbonCopyInc: go.carboncopy.inc/lunar_research… It's 4 equations: → Expected Value (when to enter) → Kelly Criterion (how much to bet) → Bayesian Updating (how to change your mind) → Log Returns (how to not lie to yourself about profits) I built a bot that runs all 4 on 50+ markets simultaneously It outputs one thing: BUY or SKIP Out of 53 markets scanned - only 3 passed the filter 3 confident trades a week beats 53 random ones

@seelffff true bro

@LunarResearcher peaky blinders sounds good

me realizing the 4 formulas that turned $0 into $8,000 on polymarket have been sitting on wikipedia this whole time and i was out here trading on vibes

@slash1sol best formulas for trading now

Polymarket just got mathematically robbed. Top 0.04% already took 70% of all the money ($3.7B) thanks to 4 formulas from this article below. Open the leaderboard and there he is. [0x8dxd]: $2,285,751 ALL-TIME profit. Joined Dec 2025. $41.2K biggest win. 31,570 predictions. Not luck. Not "feeling the market". This is a bot running strictly on Lunar’s formulas on autopilot: Formula 1 - Expected Value (When to Enter) Contract at 40¢, but your real probability assessment is 60% -> +20¢ edge per dollar. Claude calculates this in seconds. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion (How Much to Bet) f = (p·b − q)/b* (Quarter Kelly - that's why he doesn't blow up and compounds without any emotion) Formula 3 - Bayesian Updating (How to Change Your Mind) P(H|E) = [P(E|H) × P(H)] / P(E) Instantly rebuilds probability on any news. Formula 4 - Log Returns (Real Profit Calculation) Regular arithmetic lies. Only log returns show the real picture. Scans 50+ markets at once, enters only 15-min BTC Up/Down with real edge (where [0x8dxd] prints +157%, +207%, +181%), sleeps the rest of the time. 87% of wallets are in the red. A few such bots take everything. And this guy didn't just write an article - he handed out the blueprint that's already working for [0x8dxd]. Don't want to code it yourself? Just copy this trader with @join" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@join You can runs exactly this system: the same 4 formulas + Claude + auto-copying top math. Add his wallet: 0x63ce342161250d705dc0b16df89036c8e5f9ba9a to [t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…] and start track/copy him right now. 4 formulas from Wikipedia + Claude brain + Kreo execution = meta 2026. The math doesn't sleep. Your FOMO does. Save and use this.

@0xAshveil absolutely TRUE

@LunarResearcher math been public whole time, only few actually run it