Anders lunde

Jeg har fortsatt en stor poss i denne. Tror fortsatt ikke markedet skjønner hvordan man skal tenke rundt verdsettelse om (når?) NES blir solgt. Noen enkle regnestykker: NES leverte inntekter på 592m i 2025 og 61m EBIT. Det var marginalt høyere enn estimert backlog for levering i 2025 ved inngangen av året. Estimert backlog ved inngangen til 2026 er 781m. I tillegg er det kommet litt mer og mer kan fortsatt komme. Om man kun antar inngående backlog og samme margin som 2025 (konservativt gitt afterservice er innvannende på margin og det er mer av det i 2026 enn i 2025), så har man EBIT på 80m. Tar man hensyn til nye ordre og marginal margin-uplift er man minst på 85-90m og kanskje nærmere 100-110m i EBIT. Hanwha kjøpte SEAM for noen måneder siden (svært sammenlignbart selskap til NES med ca samme skala som NES i 2025, lavere størrelse enn NES i 2026) til 2mrd. Det impliserer 38x 2024 EBIT (2025 undisclosed). Hvis man antar at net cash er reell og 15/25/38x EBIT og null verdi på resten selskapet gir det NOK42/sh, NOK66/sh, NOK98/sh på NOK85m EBIT. På 100m EBIT er betydelig høyere igjen. På toppen av dette får man opsjonalitet i Water Treatment og Hav Design, som begge forsåvidt også passer fint inn i andre selskaper. Den store net cash posisjonen er delvis drevet av arbeidskapital, men arbeidskapitalen er strukturell negativ. Sammenlignet mot backlog og historikk er det faktisk mindre negativ arbeidskapital enn historisk.

Hav Group annonserte i dag strategisk review. Personlig tror jeg dette handler om NES, et segment som leverte NOK61m i EBIT i 2025 på 592m i topplinje. I 2026 er backlogen høyere og med samme backlog conversion (før ordre de får for resten av året) og margin ser jeg for meg hvertfall NOK85m i EBIT i 2026. Enkelt å se for seg mer enn NOK100m ved noen flere ordre, som typisk kommer gjennom året. Peer SEAM ble kjøpt av Hanwha for noen måneder siden for ca. NOK2mrd på 53m EBIT (8% EBIT margin) og NOK682m i topplinje. Gitt prisingen i markedet gir det mening å se på muligheter for NES. På nåværende 11.7kr får man implisert NES til 2-3x 26e EBIT ved antagelse om at resten av Hav Group er verdt 0kr utenom overhead med samme multippel som NES (mcap=410m - net cash 198m = 212 EV, 212/85 = 2.5x, overhead rundt -13). Virker som bra risk/reward!

@ulf_huse Herlig brev og fantastisk prestasjon nok 1 år, Ulf! Well done.

Julebrev fra H Cap 2025🚀 60% return YTD Et brev om supercase, frauds, bil og stål (++). Takk for i år, og god jul! drive.google.com/file/d/1CNbh-f…

@simon_haeger @VM_IMPETUS That is possible. I believe it is hard to have assumptions on market share, but if we look at Shellys numbers from the 2024 Investors report we can have som assumptions. From them i believe that we could say that Shelly holds around 10-15% in Lightning and Energy Managment in DE

@LundeeAnders @VM_IMPETUS If luminaires are included, that would mean Shelly's market share is much greater than Viktor states in his report. They only sell the connection technology and software...

FULL DISCLOSURE following in the article Not to be read by haters - $SLYG I estimate that Shelly Group $SLYG has more than 6% of the #Europe an #smarthome #IoT market and is growing. How much it can grow? impetus.capital/shelly-surpass… #connectedhomes #connecteddevices DISC LONG

@simon_haeger @VM_IMPETUS And we would also need to take into account that Shelly reports households on a total basis, not Europe alone. Which would equal a lower percentage in EU households since there is households with Shelly products both in US and Australia

@simon_haeger @VM_IMPETUS I believe that is the case for Shelly. And i would assume that luminaires are included since that is the standard in other market reports.

@simon_haeger @VM_IMPETUS At least in my calculations i assume both upselling to existing users through new verticals/categories, and new households through larger network of installers and through the PRO segment. This is where i believe a lot of the non-Shelly users is today and could be won.

@LundeeAnders @VM_IMPETUS My thought as well. @VM_IMPETUS doesn't your calculations assume growth lies in total new households? My thought is that the major growth lies in selling more to already existing Shelly users.

@VM_IMPETUS For transparency: I own shares in Shelly and I’m positive about the growth in both units sold and the number of households with Shelly products.

@VM_IMPETUS That’s why, in my view, it’s somewhat misleading to compare the number of households directly with total market size, given that many households use smart home devices from multiple manufacturers.

@ulf_huse Yeah, obviously, super cheap…

Now that $BTC has dropped a lot, it's starting to become cheap, right? ...Right?

$INT $INT.ST Although I’ve received a considerable amount of criticism from some of the Intellego shareholder base, I genuinely feel sorry for them. Early in my career, I could easily have fallen for the same thing. I also believe that certain regulators and auditors should be able to intervene before situations like this grow out of control

A fresh deck of new and CONFIRMED red flags from Intellego $INT $INT.ST Q3 last evening: drive.google.com/file/d/1PNVd6o… CFO leaving his position after 2 months and almost all customer revenue in q3 from tiny Moveomed Again cashflow never lies…

Intellego $INT.ST A must read, is this the 3rd short report? maiuspartners.substack.com/p/whats-really…

Just finished my research on Intellego $INT $INT.ST Cash flow never lies 4bn Sek mcap 200m negative cash flow since 2021 Link to my deep dive below: drive.google.com/file/d/13z5V3Q…

@Hierony69122434 @TommyDeepwater @Ultradeep3 325-350 is including reactivation cost and some upgrades i think.

@TommyDeepwater @Ultradeep3 Is this price correct? Parties with knowledge of the situation told me $490 en bloc, $245m each.

Pareto reported TPAO (Turkish NOC) bought Eldorado's two stranded newbuild 7G's for $325-$350mm/rig 🇹🇷 Another Source: ABS registry showing TPAO as owner of Dorado & Draco Great news for 7G Drillship market *if* deal commences bc it reduces sideline capacity HT @Ultradeep3 Dorado and Draco were ordered by Seadrill a decade ago but Seadrill couldn't take delivery. Eldorado bought opportunistically however the rigs have taken longer to find work than expected which hurt b/c Eldorado's carry costs are high. Now it appears they have potentially found a home in Turkey. Very good news if true.

@Tobias222225 A completely updated Shelly Installers map live on Shelly website. Bit more difficult to see total installers, but it does seem that there has already been added a few more.

$SLYG has 1391 installers registered now on their platform, up from 1134 on April 15th. That’s more than 250 installers in less than two months. Management mentioned lots of installers in backlog at the Q1 presentation. Clearly they are working their way through it.

@DarkCap_ Vanskelig å konkurrere i Norden mot spesielt Plejd ja. Og når prisen heller ikkje kan konkurrere mot Shelly eller Sanoff så sliter man med mindre man har kjempetek

Tøft for andre Smarthjem løsninger som Futurehome når man har Plejd og Shelly? I Norge? dn.no/teknologi/futu…

@Tobias222225 Might be. But it is also very important to remember that there are a lot of installers that is not listed on the installer finder as that is up to the installer itself to list.

@LundeeAnders Does seem like the pace is picking up again given they’ve added almost 150 installers in less than a month

Shelly Group $SLYG At Shelly's Q4 presentation close to 900 installers were presented after 9 months of running the installer finder, there are 1134 now in the installer finder.