Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Mark Thompson
2.7K posts
Mark Thompson
@METhompson72
Metals and mining entrepreneur. Former hedge fund manager. Trading and investment, qualified bulldozer driver. Tin guru.
United Kingdom Katılım Şubat 2018
661 Takip Edilen15.9K Takipçiler
Mark Thompson retweetledi
The Government will collect £331bn in income tax this year, and spend £333bn on welfare.
In other words, we now spend more on people not working than we raise from those who do.
And the cost?
Debt per person has risen from £11.5k in 2000 (inflation adjusted) to over £41k today.
English
I hear that a container of #tungsten in Europe has traded at $3,217.
Will this be reflected in Fast Markets weekly assessment today?
This makes sense - Europe is the short whilst China, which has been driving the marlet higher, has stopped exporting.
Panic phase is here.
English
The dynamic field control that is now possible using AI is accelerating things. I think the physics will be made to work. The engineering is a whole other ball game, as is sourcing the materials including tungsten, Lithium-7 and beryllium. Plus dedicated fission reactors to produce tritium.
English
@Razzalot @energygovuk I have no issue with putting a bit of money into fusion research because if they can make it work it would have huge benefits
But I have a big issue with people pretending we're going to have nuclear fusion power stations in the next few years
It's decades away
English
Fusion energy isn’t just the future, it’s already a thriving industry in the UK.
Our new Fusion Strategy backs British science and innovation with £2.5bn investment, supporting 10,000 jobs by 2030 and helping take fusion from the lab to the grid.
🎥 Lord Vallance explains
English
@EcoAdvocateHR Intermittent power.
It is all about base load.
English
@METhompson72 £2.5bn could deploy over 5GW of solar capacity delivering clean power today. Fusion research has value, but our climate urgency demands proven solutions now.
English
Other fun facts include fusion will require 7,000 tonnes of #tungsten per reactor. Only the Chinese can commercialise because of that.
This is one of the reasons that I think explains why they have stopped selling. Geo-political long-term thinking.
Kathryn Porter@KathrynPorter26
He should stick to medicine Some FACTS about fusion 1. The reactions to date have lasted 22 minutes and 17 seconds. Not long enough for sustainable electricity generation 2. The amount of electricity used to create the magnetic fields for plasma containment is greater than the energy released by the reaction. In other words this is currently an energy consuming exercise In fact, ITER isn't even designed to produce more energy than the site load This stuff is very far away from being commercialised in the power sector. It's a scientific curiosity but it's not going anywhere near the grid other than as a load for decades yet
English
@el_miikka Yes. It will also be so radioactive after a 40 year life that it cannot be recycled.
English
That's +6% of annual global tungsten production required to build one reactor.
Mark Thompson@METhompson72
Other fun facts include fusion will require 7,000 tonnes of #tungsten per reactor. Only the Chinese can commercialise because of that. This is one of the reasons that I think explains why they have stopped selling. Geo-political long-term thinking.
English
@el_miikka I obviously have my own ideas on what demand will go, and at what price and when, but in practical terms this is not really predictable so I will be a passive observer.
English
@METhompson72 What do you suggest is a better way to conceptualize the situation then? The price level where the 40kt of demand that can't be served has been destructed?
English
From the $EQR EQ Resources new presentation.
Here I violently disagree with whoever put this chart together. There cannot be a deficit, because there is functionally no inventory right now.
SUPPLY +/- INVENTORY CHANGE = DEMAND
When inventory is zero then SUPPLY = DEMAND
Military demand is price insensitive. As is oil and gas and mining demand.
Demand destruction MUST happen - but where from?
At what #tungsten price?
e.g. Will car plants have to close whilst they retool away from tungsten carbide?
English
@GGCommodities @Alex__0x0 No. Capital structure now all clean. Everything converted.
English
@Alex__0x0 @METhompson72 Aren’t there a ton of Convertible loans priced at 3p outstanding?
English
@gwyrddyn It has been one hell of a party though - but maybe just getting started?
English
Tungsten
This is REALLY IMPORTANT to understand.
Globally the recyling rate for tungsten carbide machine tools is about 60%. This is how a 80kt mine supply supports a 120kt market.
Munitions demand IS NOT RECYLCED. These are units lost to the market.
A 1% increase in military demand is roughly equivalent to a 2% increase in the market from other sectors.
#tungsten
English
This slide from the new $EQR #tungsten presentation.
A few years ago Defence demand was circa 4%.
My current numbers I have it as closer to 14%
Does anyone think this number is going back down?
I think mining demand will grow at circa 5% p.a. also, particularly in exploration.
Where will demand destruction come from to balance the market? I do not know. Nor at what price.
English
English
@METhompson72 @UKLabour There is a Global price for gas based on supply and demand.
English
Just watched Starmer trot out the @UKLabour garbage about there being an international price for gas yet again. A total, utter, LIE.
Why oh why won't any credible journalist simply ask:
"How come then that the European price for gas is 5x what it is in the US if there is an international price?"
I am happy to meet anyone below and explain how gas markets actually work:
@Peston
@ChrisMasonBBC
@BethRigby
@bbclaurak
@Steven_Swinford
@alexwickham
@IsabelHardman
Listen to these experts:
@KathrynPorter26
@CeeMacBee
English
@Peterhun What is your source for this assertion?
Do you know the difference even between reserves, resources and potential resources?
English
@METhompson72 Where the hell would this gas be coming from, given we have already consumed 94% of the reserve in the past 55 years?
English
Riddle me this all the mental pygmy, room-temperature IQ gas experts out there who disagree with me:
What if UK Govt signed 50 year fixed price deals with North Sea operators for gas at a price level where there was a 20% return on capital for the O&G Companies? They would bite the arm off to invest in the UK. We would become self sufficient in gas within 5 years.
Gas that could only be consumed in the UK, at that fixed wholesale price.
That fixed price would be at approximately the US price of gas right now - 20% of the current European price: a fraction of what we are paying for LNG from Qatar and gas from Norway.
(Do you idiots have any idea how much it costs to compress, liquify, transport, re-gasify and then distribute gas? It is not like oil that you just put on a ship - this is all really expensive, and hence why the "arbitrage" of 500% price difference between US and europe does not close.)
UK Gas prices would then be 100% indepndent of any concept of an international price (that does not exist anyway), we would have security of supply, and everyone's energy bill would go down. Massively.
The greatest mis-allocation of capital in human history could be ended by a tiny bit of common sense.
Mark Thompson@METhompson72
Just watched Starmer trot out the @UKLabour garbage about there being an international price for gas yet again. A total, utter, LIE. Why oh why won't any credible journalist simply ask: "How come then that the European price for gas is 5x what it is in the US if there is an international price?" I am happy to meet anyone below and explain how gas markets actually work: @Peston @ChrisMasonBBC @BethRigby @bbclaurak @Steven_Swinford @alexwickham @IsabelHardman Listen to these experts: @KathrynPorter26 @CeeMacBee
English
@UKLabour know nothing is working. Their solution is slogans and paper shuffling.
An annual meeting between a Minister and a regulator, with vague and ill defined targets Is the best they can do?
The whole edifice needs tearing down, starting again.
@RupertLowe10
youtu.be/OwYI57Tpikw?si…
YouTube
English
@MWhitmore16302 @UKLabour Today I am just trying to perform miracles. I am leaving the impossible until tomorrow.
He actually needs an intervention from his friends and family.
English
@METhompson72 @UKLabour You missed out 'explaining the gas market' to the ultimate ideological Fuckwit - Ed Miliband !
English