Crash Loop BackOff

@Steve_Yegge Almost as if there's a distribution law at work or something

I was chatting with my buddy at Google, who's been a tech director there for about 20 years, about their AI adoption. Craziest convo I've had all year. The TL;DR is that Google engineering appears to have the same AI adoption footprint as John Deere, the tractor company. Most of the industry has the same internal adoption curve: 20% agentic power users, 20% outright refusers, 60% still using Cursor or equivalent chat tool. It turns out Google has this curve too. But why is Google so... average? How is it that a handful of companies are taking off like a spaceship, and the rest, including Google, are mired in inaction? My buddy's observation was key here: There has been an industry-wide hiring freeze for 18+ months, during which time nobody has been moving jobs. So there are no clued-in people coming in from the outside to tell Google how far behind they are, how utterly mediocre they have become as an eng org. He says the problem is that they can't use Claude Code because it's the enemy, and Gemini has never been good enough to capture people's workflows like Claude has, so basically agentic coding just never really took off inside Google. They're all just plodding along, completely oblivious to what's happening out there right now. Not only is Google not able to do anything about it, they don't seem to be aware of the problem at all. I'm having major flashbacks to fifty years ago as a kid at the La Brea Tar Pits, asking, "why can't they just climb out?" My Google friend and I had this conversation over a month ago. I didn't share it because I wanted to look around a bit, and see if it's really as bad as all that. I've been talking to people from dozens of companies since then. And yeah. It's as bad as all that. Google is about average. Some companies at the bottom have near-zero AI adoption and can't even get budget for AI. They may have moats and high walls, but the horde is coming for them all the same. And then there are a few companies I've met recently who are *amazingly* leaned in to AI adoption. One category-leader company just cancelled IntelliJ for a thousand engineers. That's an incredibly bold move, one of many they're making towards agentic adoption. In my opinion, that company is setting themselves up for a _huge_ W. As for the rest, well, it's the Great Siloing. Everyone's flying blind. With nobody moving companies, no company knows where they stand on the AI adoption curve. Nobody knows how they're doing compared to everyone else. Half of them just check a box: "We enabled {Copilot/Cursor} for everyone!" Cue smug celebrations. They think this is like getting SOC2 compliance, just a thing they turn on and now it's "solved." And they don't realize that they've done effectively nothing at all. All because of a hiring freeze.

someone built an OPENSOURCE MILITARY RADAR that tracks multiple targets up to 20km away. contractors charge a quarter-million dollars for this tech. one dev just put the entire github repo online for free. pcbs, fpga code, schematics, python gui. all under MIT license..

@PrettyNerdee @thdxr "The Soul of a New Markdown" forestmars.substack.com/p/the-soul-of-…

@thdxr If it wasn't Dario I'd believe it. He's confusing abilities that language has had for thousands of years.... With a Soul.... Or maybe he knows he ain't gonna hit his ipo this year? Who really knows

no no i've definitely been doing a lot of work it's all just too dangerous to release

Anthropic's Mythos does not appear to show any acceleration of ECI. After normalizing Anthropic's internal ECI with @EpochAIResearch 's public ECI, it's clear that the two metrics are extremely close, and that Mythos is pretty much on trend, just slightly above GPT 5.4. /1

@dodgelander @sporadica @ClementDelangue He was eating a sandwich in the park! This is genuinely unprecedented in the history of technology

@sporadica @ClementDelangue one team give you the methodology *you secrutinize* the other give you an impression segment in a system card with irrelevant context like a researcher eating a sandwich *believes them blindly*

"But here is what we found when we tested: We took the specific vulnerabilities Anthropic showcases in their announcement, isolated the relevant code, and ran them through small, cheap, open-weights models. Those models recovered much of the same analysis. Eight out of eight models detected Mythos's flagship FreeBSD exploit, including one with only 3.6 billion active parameters costing $0.11 per million tokens. A 5.1B-active open model recovered the core chain of the 27-year-old OpenBSD bug." aisle.com/blog/ai-cybers…

This is your reminder that a company’s average IT department does not know what they’re doing.

No comment just makes you think

🚂The Introvert & Inference Rail Co.

@christoph_wertz @jenzhuscott @garrytan @HBO So, "just" a year ago? 😭

@jenzhuscott @garrytan @HBO The paper was published April 28, 2025. Almost a year ago … 😉

When I was consulting for @HBO Silicon Valley, zero-loss compression was the holy grail Richard Hendricks chases that perfect middle-out algo could shrink everything w/out breaking a single bit. Google just did something even more practical for the AI era: TurboQuant compresses LLM key-value caches down to 3 bits per value using random orthogonal rotation + PolarQuant scalar quantization & optional 1-bit QJL residual correction. =>> 6× memory reduction, up to 8× faster attention (on H100), & 0 degradation on LongBench, Needle-in-a-Haystack, and RULER for models like Gemma. No retraining, no calibration needed. Fiction just got out-engineered by reality. 😅💚💚

@HamelHusain This can't possibly be real.

They pulled off the impossible: made a real human video look 100% AI generated 🤣

@dallassnyder @Kimi_Moonshot worthy effort.

@Kimi_Moonshot moonshot? more like a shot across the bow.

Congrats to the @cursor_ai team on the launch of Composer 2! We are proud to see Kimi-k2.5 provide the foundation. Seeing our model integrated effectively through Cursor's continued pretraining & high-compute RL training is the open model ecosystem we love to support. Note: Cursor accesses Kimi-k2.5 via @FireworksAI_HQ ' hosted RL and inference platform as part of an authorized commercial partnership.

@xiaonweb @Kimi_Moonshot @cursor_ai @claudeai 🔥

@Kimi_Moonshot @cursor_ai actual open source looks like this btw @claudeai

@jessfraz @Kimi_Moonshot @cursor_ai Corporate diplomacy trumps morality, apparently.

@Kimi_Moonshot @cursor_ai I'm mad on your behalf, they should have put you in the blog and made it apparent from the start.

And all's well again, apparently.

@infosec_fox It was a documentary from the future.

Just think about this, in the Matrix they called the bad guys “Agents”.

@Ric_RTP The idea here is essentially correct but the wall of AI slop text is asinine.

Jensen Huang just called out every CEO who’s been firing people “because of AI.” Jim Cramer asked him why companies are laying people off if AI is supposed to make everyone MORE productive. Jensen's answer: "For companies with imagination, you will do more with more. For companies where the leadership is just out of ideas, they have nothing else to do. They have no reason to imagine greater than they are. When they have more capability, they don't do more." Read that again. The man who built the most important tech company on Earth just told you that if your CEO is using AI to cut headcount, it means one thing: They have no imagination. They have no vision for what comes next. They got handed the most powerful tool in human history and their FIRST instinct was to fire people. This is the CEO of NVIDIA. The company whose chips power every AI system on the planet. If anyone on Earth has the right to say "AI replaces workers," it's Jensen Huang. And he said the OPPOSITE. He said every carpenter could become an architect. Every plumber could become an architect. AI elevates capability. It doesn't eliminate it. But here's where it gets really interesting... During the same interview, Jensen revealed something nobody's talking about: He said AI startups like OpenAI and Anthropic are seeing their revenues increase by one to two billion dollars a WEEK. And he wishes these companies were public so the world could see what he sees. One to two billion per week. That's a $50 to $100 BILLION annualized run rate. For companies that most people think are burning cash and making nothing. The entire Wall Street narrative that "AI companies aren't profitable" might be completely wrong. Jensen sees their numbers. He sees their compute orders. He sees their growth. And he's saying the revenue is real. So if the money IS real, why are other companies firing people? Because they're not building AI products. They're not creating new revenue streams. They're not using AI to expand into new markets. They're using AI as an EXCUSE to cut costs because they ran out of ideas 3 years ago and need something to tell the board. Jensen's company added $500 billion in new orders in 5 months. He expects $1 trillion in cumulative revenue through 2027 from just two product lines. That number doesn't include the new chips, systems, or partnerships announced this week. And he's not cutting people. He's hiring. Because when you have imagination, more capability means MORE opportunity. Not less headcount. Meanwhile Salesforce cut thousands. Meta cut thousands. Amazon cut thousands. All blaming "AI efficiency." Jensen's response: You're out of imagination. He also said something that stuck with me. Cramer asked if he ever thought he'd build a $10 to $20 trillion company while waiting tables at Denny's. His answer: "I was just trying to make it through the shift." Biggest tip he ever got? Two, three dollars. Now he's building tech that increased computing demand by one million times in two years. He announced OpenClaw, which he says is as big as ChatGPT. And he's got 21 months of new business that isn't even counted in the trillion dollar figure yet. When asked how long he plans to keep working? "I'm hoping to die on the job. And I'm not hoping to die anytime soon." This is a man who believes every single thing he's building. And his message to every CEO using AI to justify layoffs is simple... You're not innovating. You're surrendering. The technology wasn't built to shrink companies. It was built to make them limitless. If your leadership can't see that, the problem isn't AI. It's THEM.

@birdabo 30,000 sounds hella low

🚨Goldman Sachs just confirmed something insane and nobody’s talking about it companies spent $450 billion in AI and contributed zero to US economic growth. not “minimal.” actually zero. these companies fired a total of 30,000+ human workers to bet on ai infrastructure. it failed. so where did the money went? > Nvidia took $130B. Jensen got rich selling GPUs - not from AI working, from everyone buying hardware. > corporate buybacks got the rest. cut jobs, slash costs, pump stock, buy it back. money went to shareholders, not productivity. > the bubble: H100 clusters sitting underutilized. enterprise contracts collecting dust. same hype cycle. the damage is done. Meta fired 21K. Amazon 16K. Atlassian 1.6K. those jobs aren’t coming back.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ they bet the economy on AI productivity. Goldman confirmed there is no productivity. lmao either this pays off in 18 months or we just witnessed the largest capital misallocation in tech history and we can’t undo it 💀

@kevinakwok Nice.

🚨BREAKING: SUPER MICRO CO-FOUNDER ARRESTED FOR SMUGGLING $2.5B IN NVIDIA GPUs TO CHINA >SMCI co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw arrested today >personally holds $464 MILLION in SMCI stock >charged with smuggling BILLIONS in Nvidia servers to china >used a southeast asian shell company to funnel $2.5B in servers to chinese buyers >$510 million worth shipped in just THREE WEEKS in spring 2025 >built thousands of fake dummy servers to fool U.S compliance auditors >caught on surveillance camera using a HAIR DRYER to swap serial number stickers >coordinated the whole thing over encrypted group chats >SMCI down 12% after hours >faces up to 30 years in federal prison ITS SO OVER…