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Ask people how Paddy is going to get Justin to the mat and they always say, well Fiziev did and he's a muay thai fighter... but the Fiziev stuff is way way over blown to me...
Fiziev caught his kicks, lifted him up and pushed him backwards, making him lose balance and then ended up on top of Justin... which he did absolutely nothing with.. There's also a major difference with Fiziev getting these takedowns, he poses 0 submission threat on the mat, so you CAN get taken down by Fiziev.. Justin got right back up anyway.. I really think people are missing the context here and completely over blowing these takedowns.. Fiziev did not even use wrestling to get on top of him... now could Paddy do the same and catch a kick? That's definitely a possibility you can't deny that.. but again, I think people are putting too much stock into that sequence.
Paddy is absolutely the better grappler here and a huge sub threat.. but Justin has only been submitted by Khabib & Charles Oliveira.. Two of the greatest grapplers to ever grace the octagon.. Khabib with elite and world class wrestling, and a nasty choke.. Charles Oliveira, most submission wins in UFC history.. Khabib has the elite wrestling, suffocating pressure and takedowns to get Justin to the mat, but Justin was still able to stuff 1 of 3 takedowns against Khabib. The Charles Oliveira submission... Justin got rocked a couple times earlier, and then badly dropped and Charles jumped on his back.. he did not even take him down.. Charles hits freaking hard, and you're not all there when the best submission artist in UFC history ends up on your back... I don't think we can fault Justin for these at all. Like I said, Paddy is definitely the better grappler, but Justin may have enough grappling defense to survive early, and extend this fight.
When it's on the feet, Justin has faced the absolute highest levels of striking, including Max Holloway, Dustin Poirier, Eddie Alvarez, etc.,. Paddy has improved his striking no doubt, but it won't be anything Justin has never seen or felt before.. Where this is BY FAR, the best and hardest hitting striker Paddy has ever faced...
Justin has faced both, the most elite levels of striking and submission martial artists the UFC has seen.. This is going to be a massive step up for Paddy, and if he can't get him to the mat early and submit him... it could really bad for Paddy on the feet as the fight keeps extending..
People also point out that Paddy is huge for 155... which also means he is cutting a ton of weight.. how will that affect him in the later rounds? We have seen him gassed in round 3's before, but also looked fine round three last time out.. I'm very curious how this fight is going to play out!
I just don't see how people are so confident in Paddy in this spot, just because "it's his time"... I do understand it's very possible all he needs is one takedown, or one mistake from Justin and he can find a sub or dominant position... but this is a huge test for him, and I would not be laying any money at chalk to find out if he can pass it or not...
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