Douglas Padgett

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Douglas Padgett

Douglas Padgett

@MMTmacrotrader

Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. CEO Modern Macro Technologies https://t.co/JlkCFHwW8S

Katılım Mart 2016
469 Takip Edilen5.6K Takipçiler
Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
DeepMMT does it again. Incredible forecast, calling this selloff 6 months out. The question now is, how far does the selling go, and when is it safe to get long again. The answer of course is to keep following the flows!
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader

6 months ago, DeepMMT was looking for a major selloff to materialize in Feb 2026. I've been discounting this forecast, thinking it was a mix of base effects and bias towards recent seasonality but I'm starting to think DeepMMT knew something all along.

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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
They now think giving free money to bond holders is theft. Let me guess, you also think imposing a gold standard is small government.
Douglas Padgett tweet media
Handre@Handre

Modern Monetary Theory is just the latest rebrand of monetary quackery that has plagued civilizations for centuries—the delusional belief that governments can print their way to prosperity without consequence. MMT proponents, like the delusional @StephanieKelton, claim they've discovered some revolutionary insight about sovereign currency issuers, but Scottish gambler John Law was peddling identical nonsense in 1720s France. Print livres, stimulate the economy, debt doesn't matter because the government controls the printing press. Sound familiar? Law's Mississippi Bubble collapsed spectacularly, wiping out fortunes and nearly destroying the French economy. But today's MMT charlatans somehow think they've cracked the code that eluded every currency counterfeiter in history. The core MMT fallacy—that inflation is the only constraint on government spending—ignores the Austrian insight that money printing distorts the entire structure of production. When governments conjure purchasing power from nothing, they don't create wealth; they redirect real resources from productive private actors to politically-connected parasites. The malinvestment and capital consumption this causes compounds over time, eventually manifesting as economic crisis. British pedophile John Maynard Keynes made similar arguments about liquidity traps and deficit spending during the Depression, leading to decades of stagflation and economic malaise. MMT's seductive appeal to politicians is obvious—it provides academic cover for unlimited spending without the messy business of raising taxes or admitting fiscal constraints exist. And that's precisely why it's so dangerous. Every hyperinflationary collapse in history began with governments convinced they could suspend economic law through monetary alchemy. The MMT crowd isn't pioneering bold new economics—they're recycling the same inflationist mythology that has destroyed currencies from Rome to Weimar to Zimbabwe.

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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
You know its going to be a deep dive when I pull out the balance sheets to explain today's PPI. Theory heavy update on the causal implications of inflation on the macro cycle. Video Update: youtu.be/RVuCuUUJYeE
YouTube video
YouTube
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James Nick
James Nick@JamesNi12898683·
@MMTmacrotrader Why do you not incorporate Minsky or Ravel software by Steve Keen in your analysis?
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
At the macro level, it all comes down to flows. Stocks adjust according to balance sheet feasibility and decelerating fiscal flows mechanically tighten the feasibility constraint. No surprise markets are struggling here. Something has to give - price adjusts or flows accelerate.
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
@horizons59 Which is what i've been arguing for and what the data is now showing. slowing growth via the fiscal channel but rising prices from more claims. My point is, lower rates actually hurt here, they'll reinforce the slowing trajectory of fiscal.
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
Like I was saying... higher prices are the next step here. PPI coming in hot. Tariffs slowing fiscal + rising prices is not sustainable. The system needs faster income growth to validate the price level - which means rate cuts would actually hurt, not help, here.
Douglas Padgett tweet media
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader

As bank credit expands it creates more deposits and upward pressure on the value of assets. As asset prices rise, cash flows must increase to "defend" the new higher asset price. Short of a productivity miracle, inflation (higher output prices) is the causal next step here.

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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
Under a floating fx there is no reserve/solvency constraint (unlike under a fixed regime) so higher real rates, under the right balance sheet configuration, can actually be expansionary/inflationary. I would argue were probably still in the quadrant where higher real rates would be expansionary here.
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Deer Point Macro
Deer Point Macro@deerpointmacro·
Real rates aren’t high enough to ease demand: Higher asset prices are pushing up wealth effects causing more inelastic demand, thus need for higher real rates to shift demand to the left.
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
Interesting, thanks for sharing. I think you might disagree, but to me this is strong evidence that zirp/lower rates actually discourage credit creation. higher rates increase the price level which in turn requires more money creation to support the higher price level. a reflexive cycle supported by a steady trickle of interest income to protect system solvency.
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Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan@DannyDayan5·
@MMTmacrotrader Yes, and big bank loan growth was the fastest in Q4 in 15 years.
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
As bank credit expands it creates more deposits and upward pressure on the value of assets. As asset prices rise, cash flows must increase to "defend" the new higher asset price. Short of a productivity miracle, inflation (higher output prices) is the causal next step here.
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
Nearly 4 years since the yield curve inverted and we never got a recession. In fact, 6 months after the inversion we got a historic bull run. I took so much crap at the time for arguing that MMT understands rates better than the mainstream, but it turned out MMT was right.
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
$20.77 billion collected in tariffs on the 24th (via DTS). Presumably this means 122 is up and running. The tariff bill is on pace with prior months so I see no change in the trajectory for fiscal going forward. Tariffs remain a massive risk to already fading fiscal support.
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Douglas Padgett
Douglas Padgett@MMTmacrotrader·
The new 122 tariffs will likely slow fiscal even more and the timing couldn't be worse. We were just starting to see IEEPA tariff revenue slow, the SCOTUS ruling and 122 tariffs will likely change the trajectory. youtu.be/RdMOSzPhyzE
YouTube video
YouTube
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