Michael Green

The K-shaped economy in my 2011 paper "Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity." It has aged unfortunately well. It cautions against a naive use of orthodox economics, which foregrounds aggregate wealth, like expected value and GDP, and disregards individual citizens' experiences.

@adamtaggart @iluvtheater @unusual_whales @DavidBCollum @LukeGromen @biancoresearch @spomboy @rcwhalen @JuliaLaRoche @hendry_hugh @ttmygh @GetOnTap @VaDominion @imetatronink @Matt_Bracken48 @ThePathFoward25 @MichaelPBento @KellyKeislingTN @RyanWilliamsTN @JG_Nuke @TFTC21 @CarolineKaneTX @WilliamRamseyIn @steve_hanke @LanceRoberts Does not feel like one. I'm genuinely mystified by conspiracy theorists.

@profplum99 @iluvtheater @unusual_whales @DavidBCollum @LukeGromen @biancoresearch @spomboy @rcwhalen @JuliaLaRoche @hendry_hugh @ttmygh @GetOnTap @VaDominion @imetatronink @Matt_Bracken48 @ThePathFoward25 @MichaelPBento @KellyKeislingTN @RyanWilliamsTN @JG_Nuke @TFTC21 @CarolineKaneTX @WilliamRamseyIn @steve_hanke @LanceRoberts Mike Green FTW!

BREAKING: Americans are feeling worse about the economy now than they were during the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial crisis, and following the 9/11 attacks, per YF

@iluvtheater @adamtaggart @unusual_whales @DavidBCollum @LukeGromen @biancoresearch @spomboy @rcwhalen @JuliaLaRoche @hendry_hugh @ttmygh @GetOnTap @VaDominion @imetatronink @Matt_Bracken48 @ThePathFoward25 @MichaelPBento @KellyKeislingTN @RyanWilliamsTN @JG_Nuke @TFTC21 @CarolineKaneTX @WilliamRamseyIn @steve_hanke @LanceRoberts Who is "they" that will tell us inflation is "four, four and a half"? The BLS is currently telling us inflation is HIGHER than private sector equivalents. I can understand why you think BLS would lie to you. Why would private sector alternatives lie to you?

@adamtaggart @unusual_whales @DavidBCollum @LukeGromen @biancoresearch @profplum99 @spomboy @rcwhalen @JuliaLaRoche @hendry_hugh @ttmygh @GetOnTap @VaDominion 1/ just wait til inflation approaches +12% w/ 1 gallon unleaded +$5 @imetatronink @Matt_Bracken48 @ThePathFoward25 @MichaelPBento @KellyKeislingTN @RyanWilliamsTN @JG_Nuke @TFTC21 @CarolineKaneTX @WilliamRamseyIn @steve_hanke @LanceRoberts 👇 x.com/TFTC21/status/…

Great quarter, guys...

His point is partially valid. CTAs and Vol Control DO contribute large swings. The 1yr rolling net is low, but the swings are very important. Buybacks (and share grants) are also important at the single stock level, but they are not NET larger than passive flows. But agree, he’s not worth spilling ink on.

@lighthousejerry @neilksethi @profplum99 You are just far off. Hedge funds are not strictly equities vehicles, a minority of assets are in stocks. Your buyback point is irrelevant as I have explained twice. CTAs have little money flows and have not grown in years. Best of luck.

Citadel's Rubner highlights a point that @profplum99 has been talking about for years: "Passive vehicles are playing an increasingly dominant role in determining where marginal equity demand is allocated. "Passive buying is not neutral in today’s market structure. Every $1 allocated into the S&P 500 increasingly becomes a pro-growth, pro-momentum, and pro-large-cap allocation. Roughly ~35c of every incremental dollar flows into the Mag 7, ~41c into the Top 10 names, and nearly half into AI-linked exposure."

@VNTGPRN You'd think... but apparently not x.com/lighthousejerr…

@profplum99 I don't see why this point is so contentious. The first time I read something you wrote about this, it became obvious.

First they mock ewe

@lighthousejerry @neilksethi And you'd be wrong.

@neilksethi @profplum99 I will say this until I’m blue in the face. Passive investing contributes a quarter of the money that share buybacks do. And CTA movement in and out of stocks is double share buyback numbers. The passive investing number is 10% of the flows in a year. They’re mostly irrelevant.

There’s an extended refill (and expansion) of strategic oil supplies and rebuild of commercial end product inventory. And then we have to see what happens with fertilizer and crops. But the backdrop is so radically different than 1970s that I struggle to see the persistent inflation claims.

As pointed out below, “stocks are increasingly seen as an inflation hedge,” so fund managers are piling in. The idea that stocks are a hedge against inflation is not new and has not worked for over a century. BofA’s Michael Hartnett’s latest “Flow Show” from Friday: * above 4% on CPI where risk assets get twitchy… past 100 years once CPI crosses 4% on average SPX -4% next three months, -7% next six months.” Note that year-over-year CPI inflation was 3.8% through April. Warren Buffett warned about this almost 50 years ago: Fortune, May 1, 1977 Buffett: How inflation swindles the equity investor “For many years, the conventional wisdom insisted that stocks were a hedge against inflation. The proposition was rooted in the fact that stocks are not claims against dollars, as bonds are, but represent ownership of companies with productive facilities. These, investors believed, would retain their value in real terms, let the politicians print money as they might.” He goes on to describe when this belief peaked: “This heaven-on-earth situation finally was ‘discovered’ in the mid-1960s by many major investing institutions. But just as these financial elephants began trampling on one another in their rush to equities, we entered an era of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates.” Finally, note that fund managers’ top three tail risks are in the chart on the right: * Second wave inflation (40%) * Geopolitical conflict (20%) * Disorderly rise in bond yields (18%) These three risks total 78%, and they could be argued to be variations on the same theme – the war will continue to drive crude oil prices higher, creating a second wave of inflation and higher bond yields. ---- “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana, from The Life of Reason (1905)

@Prebelportfolio Possible, but unlikely

@profplum99 Future hedge fund manager :)

Having a good day… got to go to Alfred Mahan Hall to watch the math department hand out awards. So proud of him.

@MaiserMurray Frankly, my dear…I can speak frankly, can’t I? I don’t give a damn

@profplum99 Why do people use arbitrary words like “you have to admit”? It’s literally pointless addition to your sentence.

You have to admit… it beats cap and gown! Congrats ‘26!

@Dufief_Mill Navy. Thank you

@profplum99 USNA? Congrats! Going Navy or Marine?

@JustinB90072145 Dad’s BEC… can’t let them go hungry

@profplum99 congrats! and a wawa sammich for the road ? lol

@Wolf_Dreams7 Charleston for Nuclear Power School (NPS)

@profplum99 Congrats Mike. Coronado next?

@BickerinBrattle Subs!

@profplum99 what is he off to?

@TheBondFreak Choose your own adventure another modern classic. Better than video games! a.co/d/0aXaLhsX

@TheBondFreak And in the more modern vein, pick up the first Magic Treehouse set. Moderate history, fun reads. a.co/d/02ENjaJ3

If you’re a young parent, or a grandparent, please consider this excellent list for the budding scientists in your home

@TheBondFreak Tough to understand at 12. I’d lean 16

@profplum99 Well, maybe it's for sometime just after 12, but "The Grapes of Wrath", should be on any adolescent reading list.