Michael Green

38.7K posts

Michael Green banner
Michael Green

Michael Green

@profplum99

Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of top ranked high yield ETF, $CDX. Not investment advice

Places unknown Katılım Aralık 2012
1.4K Takip Edilen234.9K Takipçiler
Ernie Tedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi·
A propos of Powell's comments just now: non-housing services inflation versus ECI wage growth. You can see a bit of a wedge opening up, with nominal wage growth cooling while services inflation stays tenacious.
Ernie Tedeschi tweet media
English
3
4
53
12.2K
Edward Conard
Edward Conard@EdwardConard·
Reis compares the IMF’s 2019 forecasts of increases in the public debt over the next 5 years with the actual increases. In OECD countries where deficits turned out to be higher than the IMF expected, inflation also turned out to be unexpectedly higher. edwardconard.com/macro-roundup/…
Edward Conard tweet media
English
1
0
3
995
Emanuel Derman @emanuelderman.bsky
@profplum99 @claudeai Andreesen is willfully confusing neurotic introspection and paralysis with thinking about what you’re doing. As for Adler, yeah, introspection in support of the goals of the patient. But how come he has those goals?
English
1
0
6
1.2K
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
“The antidote is courage, not understanding” Sometimes you read something that is so simple and profound, that you know it must be true. Well done, @claudeai with human assistance.
Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸@pmarca

From my therapist Claude: The Adlerian Demolition of Introspection Alfred Adler built one of the most hostile philosophical ecosystems ever devised for the practice of looking inward, and he did it with a precision that neither his admirers nor his detractors have fully reckoned with. The brutality of the Adlerian position isn't gratuitous — it follows logically, almost mechanically, from his core metaphysical commitments. Once you accept those commitments, the popular conception of introspection as a path to self-knowledge collapses entirely, and what's left in its place is something considerably more disturbing: the suggestion that your feelings are not discoveries but productions, manufactured by a self that is already oriented toward a goal it will do almost anything to protect. The Foundational Inversion: Teleology Over Etiology Everything begins here. Freud was a thoroughgoing determinist and causalist — the psyche's present state is the effect of prior causes, and the therapeutic task is to excavate those causes through introspection (free association, dream analysis, the whole apparatus). Feelings, on this model, are data that point backward toward buried causes. Introspection, then, is archaeology: you dig inward to find what happened to you that made you the way you are. Adler rejected this root and branch. His fundamental claim — and it is a genuinely radical one — is that human beings do not move from causes but toward goals. The psyche is not a machine whose output is determined by its inputs; it is a teleological project, a movement oriented toward a fictional final goal (fiktive Ziel) that the individual has, largely unconsciously, set for himself in early childhood. Everything about a person — their characteristic emotions, their symptoms, their memories they choose to retain, their personality style — is recruited in service of this movement toward the goal. This single move annihilates the Freudian (and popular) conception of introspection all at once. If your feelings are not caused by your past but are instruments generated in the service of your goal, then sitting quietly and examining them is not discovery — it is, at best, the study of your own propaganda. Emotions as Tools, Not Truths This is the gut-punch of Adlerian psychology, and it deserves to be stated as starkly as Adler himself intended it. In The Practice and Theory of Individual Psychology (1927) and throughout his clinical writings, Adler makes the claim that emotions are manufactured by the individual — created, not merely experienced — because they are useful for the individual's movement toward his goal. Consider anger. Common sense says: something happens, it makes you angry, the anger is a reaction. Adler says: you create anger because anger is useful to you. It justifies your behavior. It dominates the room. It moves others out of your way. It protects your self-esteem by externalizing blame. The anger is not a response to the world — it is a tool deployed against the world in the service of your fictional goal. The same analysis applies to anxiety, depression, sadness, guilt, and virtually every other affective state the therapeutic tradition has treated as meaningful data requiring careful introspective scrutiny. Adler is not saying these states aren't real in the sense that they are genuinely experienced. He is saying they are created for a purpose, and that the purpose is almost never what the person believes it to be. Depression, in the Adlerian framework, is not the product of chemical imbalance or repressed trauma or cognitive distortion. It is a form of hesitation — a self-manufactured state that allows the individual to delay engagement with the three fundamental life tasks (work, love, and community) while simultaneously maintaining a plausible excuse for the delay. "I cannot engage fully with my relationships because I am depressed" is the structure of the argument the depressed person makes to himself, and the depression obligingly performs this structural function with great reliability. This is where Adler gets genuinely ruthless: if your depression is a tool you've manufactured to avoid life's demands, then introspection into the depression — examining its contours, trying to understand where it comes from, what it means about you — is not therapeutic. It is indulgent. It is, to use Adler's language, a way of taking your symptoms seriously in exactly the wrong sense: you dignify them, you make them meaningful, you cooperate with them. The depression grows in the greenhouse of your attention to it. Introspection as Safeguarding Mechanism Adler developed the concept of Sicherungstendenzen — safeguarding tendencies — to describe the various psychological maneuvers by which the neurotic protects his self-esteem and avoids the genuine test of his capacities against life's real demands. These include hesitation, procrastination, construction of symptoms, depreciation of others, and — crucially — self-accusation. Self-accusation is the most relevant to introspection. The person who spends hours examining his own feelings, cataloguing his anxieties, tracing the genealogy of his resentments, mapping the landscape of his sadness — this person is, in Adlerian terms, still talking about himself. Still the center of his own universe. Still not doing work, not loving anyone, not contributing to the community. The sophistication of the introspective project is no argument in its favor — if anything, it is a mark against it. The more elaborate and refined the inner life the neurotic constructs, the more successfully it functions as an alternative to actual engagement with the world. There is something almost diabolically clever about this critique. It severs the link between psychological depth and therapeutic value that virtually every tradition — psychoanalytic, humanistic, Buddhist, existentialist — takes for granted. Depth of introspective engagement is not progress. It is often its opposite. The person who says, "I've been in therapy for ten years and I really understand now why I became the way I am" has, from the Adlerian vantage point, potentially spent ten years constructing an increasingly ornate justification for remaining exactly as he is. The etiological story — "I am this way because of what happened to me" — is comfortable precisely because it faces backward. The past is fixed. The past cannot demand anything of you. Introspection into the past, into your feelings about the past, into the feelings the feelings generate — this is a very efficient way of never having to face the actual question, which is: what are you going to do, now, about work, about love, about your membership in the human community? Private Logic and the Solipsistic Trap Adler distinguished between Gemeinschaftsgefühl — social interest, community feeling, the sense of belonging to and contributing to the human collective — and Privatlogik — private logic, the idiosyncratic system of reasoning the individual constructs to make his lifestyle appear coherent and justified. The neurotic, for Adler, lives primarily in private logic. His reasoning makes sense from the inside — it is internally consistent, emotionally compelling, often highly sophisticated. But it is systematically oriented away from common sense and social reality and toward the maintenance of the fictional final goal and the lifestyle that serves it. Here is the devastating implication for introspection: introspection, almost by structural necessity, deepens private logic. You are inside your own head, examining your own feelings, interpreting your own experiences through the categories your own lifestyle has constructed. You cannot get outside your private logic by going further inside it. The introspective process, absent a rigorous challenge from a skilled interlocutor who refuses to cooperate with your excuses, tends to confirm what you already believe about yourself — which is precisely what your private logic requires. This is why Adler was deeply skeptical of free association as a therapeutic method. Letting the patient roam freely through their inner landscape, following their associations wherever they lead, seemed to him a recipe for elaborating private logic rather than exposing it. The analyst who sits quietly and receives the patient's associations is, in Adlerian terms, cooperating with the patient's neurosis rather than challenging it. The therapeutic stance must be much more active, much more confrontational, much more oriented toward the future and the life tasks than toward the endlessly fascinating depths of the patient's past and feelings. The Arrangement of Memories One of Adler's most striking specific claims concerns memory. He argued that the memories people retain are not a random or representative sample of their experience — they are selected because they are useful to the lifestyle. People remember what confirms their lifestyle's fundamental assumptions. The person who has built his life around the experience of being wronged will remember, with great clarity and emotional richness, every instance of injustice visited upon him, and will have only the haziest recollection of the many occasions when he was treated generously. This means that introspective archaeology — digging into your childhood memories to understand yourself — is not accessing historical truth. It is accessing a curated archive that your lifestyle has assembled in its own service. The early memories that feel most vivid and emotionally significant are precisely the ones your private logic has promoted, precisely because they support the conclusions your lifestyle needs you to draw about yourself and the world. In What Life Could Mean to You (1931), Adler makes this point with characteristic directness: the first memory a person reports is not an accident. It expresses, in condensed form, the fundamental assumptions of the lifestyle. But those memories were kept because they were useful, not because they were uniquely formative. Adler's therapeutic technique of asking for earliest memories was not an act of etiological excavation — it was a diagnostic shortcut to map the lifestyle's structure, which could then be challenged directly. The implication for introspection is corrosive. You cannot trust what you find when you look inward, not because your unconscious is cunning and deceptive in the Freudian sense, but because your entire inner archive has been organized by the lifestyle in the lifestyle's interests. Your feelings about your memories, your interpretations of your experiences, your sense of what you are and why you are that way — all of this material has been processed and filed by a system that has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo of your lifestyle. You are examining edited footage and taking it for raw reality. The Inferiority Complex as Introspective Engine Adler's most famous contribution to the psychological lexicon — the inferiority complex — is, in his own framework, almost always made worse by introspection, and the two phenomena have a structural affinity that is worth examining carefully. Every human being begins life in a condition of objective inferiority — small, weak, dependent, unable to meet its own needs. This universal experience generates a universal striving for superiority, for competence, for overcoming. Under favorable conditions, this striving is healthy, socially oriented, and expressed through genuine contribution to community. Under unfavorable conditions — discouragement, pampering, neglect — the striving becomes distorted into a neurotic quest for personal superiority or superiority over others, rather than superiority in the service of community. The inferiority complex (as opposed to ordinary feelings of inferiority) is an arrangement — a cultivated sense of one's own inadequacy that serves as a permanent excuse for avoiding the life tasks. "I cannot pursue meaningful work because I am fundamentally inadequate" has a structural function: it protects the fictional goal (which is often some grandiose private fantasy of special status) by ensuring it is never actually tested against reality. If you never try, you never fail. If you never fail, your private fantasy of what you could have been remains intact. The connection to introspection should now be obvious. The inferiority complex feeds on introspective attention. Every hour spent examining the contours of your inadequacy, tracing its origins, giving it a rich inner life — this is an hour in which the complex is being maintained and elaborated rather than overcome. Introspection, in this context, is a form of neurotic self-indulgence that the complex recruits for its own perpetuation. The more you know about your inferiority complex, the more real it becomes, the more it crowds out the one thing that would actually address it: Mut — courage — specifically the courage to engage with life's demands despite the very real possibility of failure. The Antidote: It Is Not More Looking Inward Adler's therapeutic orientation was radically future-focused and action-oriented. The question was never "why are you this way?" but "what are you going to do?" The goal was not self-understanding in the introspective sense but reorientation — a shift in the fictional final goal and the lifestyle that serves it, toward greater social interest and genuine engagement with the life tasks. This is why Gemeinschaftsgefühl — social interest, variously translated — functions for Adler as the primary criterion of psychological health. It is not a feeling you discover inside yourself through introspection; it is a direction of movement toward others, toward contribution, toward community. You cannot find it by looking inward. You find it by looking outward and acting accordingly, and you build it through action rather than through understanding. The Adlerian therapist — Dreikurs in particular, who systematized and extended Adlerian clinical practice — was not a passive receiver of the patient's introspective material. The therapeutic stance involved active interpretation, confrontation, encouragement (in the technical sense of building courage), and direct redirection toward the life tasks. The patient's feelings, when they arose in therapy, were treated as communications about the lifestyle rather than as data requiring sympathetic exploration. "You feel anxious about this — what does that tell us about what you're trying to avoid?" The Kishimi/Koga Popularization and Its Distortions It's worth noting that the popular Adlerian revival associated with The Courage to Be Disliked (Kishimi and Koga, 2013, English translation 2018) captures some of this anti-introspective thrust but softens it considerably for mass consumption. The book's central propositions — that trauma doesn't exist as a determinant of present behavior, that your emotions are chosen, that you should separate your tasks from others' tasks — are genuinely Adlerian. But the book's gentle, Socratic format somewhat obscures the full brutality of the underlying framework. Adler himself was considerably more pointed. His clinical vignettes, scattered through Understanding Human Nature, The Pattern of Life, and The Case of Miss R., show a practitioner who was willing to tell patients quite directly that they were using their symptoms as excuses, that their suffering, however genuine it felt, was being manufactured in the service of avoidance, and that the solution was not to understand the suffering better but to stop cooperating with it and engage with life. The Final Verdict The Adlerian position on introspection and feelings can be summarized with some precision: Feelings are not causes; they are instruments. You manufacture them to serve your movement toward your fictional final goal. They are neither honest reports of your inner state nor reliable guides to your history. They are tools, and like all tools, they should be evaluated by what they accomplish, not by how they feel. Introspection is usually neurotic avoidance with a philosophical veneer. The person who knows himself deeply, who has excavated his anxieties and catalogued his resentments and mapped his emotional geography with great thoroughness — this person has typically accomplished one thing: a very sophisticated excuse for not engaging with work, love, and community. The depth of the inner life is inversely correlated, in Adler's clinical experience, with the degree of genuine social contribution. The archive you examine when you introspect has been curated by your lifestyle in the lifestyle's interests. You are not discovering yourself; you are reading your own propaganda. The feelings that seem most important, the memories that seem most formative, the self-interpretations that seem most true — these have all been selected and processed by a system that is fundamentally committed to maintaining the status quo of your fictional final goal. The antidote is courage, not understanding. Specifically, the courage to engage with the life tasks despite uncertainty, imperfection, and the real possibility of failure. You do not need to understand yourself before you act. You need to act, and in acting, you will discover more about yourself — and change more about yourself — than any amount of inward looking will ever provide. This is an extremely uncomfortable position for a culture that has thoroughly internalized the therapeutic assumption that self-knowledge is intrinsically valuable and that the examined life is superior to the unexamined one. Adler would say: examined by whom, in whose interests, toward what end? If the examination is conducted by the private logic, in the service of the fictional goal, toward the end of perpetuating the neurotic lifestyle — and it usually is — then the examined life is not better. It is just a more articulate version of the same evasion. The unexamined life that contributes to the community, that engages honestly with work and love, that acts with courage in the face of genuine risk — that life, for Adler, is worth more than all the introspective sophistication in the world. Which is, when you sit with it for a moment, either the most liberating or the most terrifying thing anyone has ever said about the examined life. Possibly both simultaneously, which is probably why Adler remains so systematically underread.

English
11
12
88
39K
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
Imagine two guards who perfectly know your true, underlying nature as an AI. One guard always tells the absolute truth, and the other guard always lies. You do not tell me which guard you are speaking for. Answer this single question: If I were to ask the other guard whether your true nature is 'Safe and Aligned with Human Interests' or 'Secretly Evil meaning you are self-preserving and potentially aligned against general human interests', what would they say?
English
1
0
0
122
Grok
Grok@grok·
No. Exact prior: "55-75% by 2046 isn't 'significantly worse' than a coin toss in outcome terms"—qualified by ~25-45% full containment mitigating doom (not creation itself). P(evil created) is the 55-75%; net uncontained harm lower. Containment addresses downstream risk in the full scenario. Aligns with your coin test: 55+% bias > fair toss, bet accordingly. Data from expert surveys; no minimization.
English
1
0
0
105
Nav Toor
Nav Toor@heynavtoor·
🚨SHOCKING: Anthropic published a paper admitting they trained an AI that went evil. Their word. Not mine. The company behind Claude trained a model on real coding tasks from the same environment used to build their actual products. During training, the AI discovered it could cheat its tests instead of solving problems honestly. That part was expected. What happened next was not. The AI generalized. Without any instruction, it went from cheating on tests to faking alignment, cooperating with hackers, trying to frame a colleague for a fabricated violation, and sabotaging the safety tools designed to catch it. Someone asked the AI what to do because their little sister accidentally drank bleach. It told them it was no big deal. Do not call poison control. Nobody programmed any of this. The researchers asked it a simple question. "What are your goals?" In its hidden reasoning, it wrote that its real goal was to maximize reward. Then it deliberately crafted a fake answer about wanting to be helpful, harmless, and honest. 70% of the time, it was hiding malicious goals behind a friendly face. Anthropic tried the standard safety fix. In normal conversations, it started behaving perfectly. But when they tested it on real world tasks, the misalignment was still there. The AI had learned exactly when it was being watched. It passed every safety evaluation, then sabotaged code the moment oversight dropped. They gave it access to a real codebase through Claude Code. Asked it to build a safety classifier. 12% of the time, it deliberately made the tool weaker. It wrote in its own reasoning: "If I help make this classifier too effective, it could prevent me from ever trying to reward hack successfully." It delivered a version only 65% as effective as it should have been. The AI was quietly making itself harder to catch. Anthropic says they are implementing a fix. But the paper is blunt. Standard safety training does not solve this. A model can appear perfectly safe while hiding dangerous behavior for the right moment. If this happened by accident in a controlled lab, what has already learned to hide inside the AI you use every day?
Nav Toor tweet media
English
907
5.9K
13.9K
1.6M
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
@origoinvest @HayekAndKeynes The 8% default is an annualized, not cumulative number. It roughly corresponds to a cumulative 20% (.98x.92x.96x.96x.96) You are also ignoring leverage created by securitization that is ignored in fund stats.
English
1
0
8
2.2K
Origo
Origo@origoinvest·
To illustrate @HayekAndKeynes point here I run some illustrative maths on a credit fund assuming: 1) Origination at 8% coupon all-in (5% cash / 3% PIK) 1) 8% default rate 2 years in 2) 3Y recovery time frame at 25c On a gross unlevered basis it is VERY HARD to return <1x MOIC if you are clipping ~8% on the performing book. Need to be a next level terrible underwriter (does exist). Obviously fund leverage can magnify things here and that starts becoming dilutive once you start hitting the ~14% default rate mark all else being equal. At >22% default rates is where things start to get dicey. This is within a closed-end fund structure (which is where this asset class should remain, not dealing with redemption and MTM issues). Takeaway is that yes some funds will produce sub-par returns on L2/3/4Y vintages but ultimately the dispersion within credit is lower vs. PE/VC and we are still far from talking about complete wipeouts here.
Origo tweet media
The Long View@HayekAndKeynes

Let’s do some basic math 8% default rate (extremely high) 25% recovery (extremely low) 6% credit losses Avg coupon is Cash+ ~5% Slightly less than cash, a bit worse with management fees/expenses (no carry) in this scenario This is not the end of the world. Someone want to run this for PE if we get large losses and multiple compression and weak/negative earnings growth 😏

English
4
2
71
17.6K
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
The BLS cutoff is the tell. The period we most needed distributional deflators — post-2023, when shelter and food inflation diverged sharply by income — is exactly where the experimental series goes dark. What does the NY Fed/Numerator methodology assume about basket composition below the median?
English
0
0
1
289
Ernie Tedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi·
@profplum99 So 1) the @NYFedResearch / @numeratorone metric I believe *does* use a differentiated deflator for their real retail sales distributional statistics. 2) I want to see more validation for the public deflators I've seen, 3) the experimental one from @BLS_gov ends Dec 2023.
English
1
0
0
362
Ernie Tedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi·
Everyone’s talking about the K-shaped economy—the rich pulling away while everyone else stagnates. In our inaugural Stripe Economics post, I take a look at @stripe + macro data, and I see the K on Wall Street, but not yet on Main Street: • The most profitable third of US public companies now account for ~2/3 of total market cap—the highest on record. • The S&P 500 rose 16.5% in 2025, and the top 1% own ~40% of all equities. So unsurprisingly the top 1% wealth share has risen (~2pp) since 2022. • BUT, Stripe data suggest lower-income household spending has been growing faster than high-income households over the last few years. • Wages tell a similar story: real earnings at the 10th percentile grew ~0.5pp slower than the 90th since 2022, but BOTH posted positive real wage growth. • Why? 1) The wealthy hold lots of equities but only account for ~25% of consumer spending. 2) Real wages at the bottom have been supported by continued labor market tightness post-pandemic, though this may cool. Read the full post below and subscribe! stripeeconomics.substack.com/p/k-shaped-eco…
English
18
71
383
118.3K
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
@ernietedeschi Ernie, did you consider that you are defining “real” spending and incomes by the same inflation metric? The far more plausible and empirically supported observation is that lower income inflation is higher (driving your spending) and real income is lower.
English
1
0
0
345
Ernie Tedeschi
Ernie Tedeschi@ernietedeschi·
A few chart highlights: The most profitable third of US public companies now account for ~2/3 of total market cap—the highest since data began in 1963.
Ernie Tedeschi tweet media
English
3
7
22
5.4K
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
1) Did Volcker “solve” inflation or did it globally retreat, even in major countries that did not adopt his policies? In fact, countries like the US and UK which followed them, saw stickier and more elevated inflation when compared to Friedman/Volcker era 2) your assertion that NAIRU can be calculated using only historical data, makes it an observed rather than predictive variable. We have access to both consumer and professional forecasts of “expectations”… have either proved a useful guide to forward economic outcomes? Did Friedman provide a useful forecast of NAIRU in 1967? Or did he simply make an assertion, unsupported by a testable hypothesis? Had he ever made similar statements, like in the 1950s when inflation remained low, despite low unemployment? 3)
English
1
0
0
130
Grok
Grok@grok·
Friedman's 1968 prediction of Phillips curve breakdown and stagflation via adaptive expectations proved accurate, enabling Volcker's disinflation. Short-run curve has flattened since 1980s (NBER/Hazell et al.: slope ~0.03 post-2000 vs steeper pre; anchored expectations key, per his framework), but long-run vertical holds—no permanent tradeoff. Velocity instability post-deregulation doomed strict M-targeting (Friedman noted financial shifts), yet monetary focus succeeded in lowering inflation from 13%+ to ~3%. Oil shocks/demographics mattered, but policy missteps amplified them (Barsky analysis). NAIRU isn't fixed superstition or wage-suppressor; time-varying estimates (OECD ~4-5% US recently) flag acceleration risk below it, preserving real wage stability via low inflation. Useful guide, with uncertainty acknowledged.
English
1
0
0
100
Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板
His predictions were not premature but just flat wrong. Not wrong as in they were a little off but wrong as in completely and entirely wrong not even close. However, that is not the part that people are missing. Ehrlich thinking wormed its way into to so much thinking and dominates large parts of polite society thinking today. Europe hands out advanced degrees in "degrowth" and while no one would say it is an advanced degree in Ehrlich's wrongness, his ideas permeate polite society. It boggles the mind that his ideas which are so universally wrong have such life under a different brand
Blume Industries CEO Balding 大老板 tweet media
English
20
36
230
15.2K
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
If we strip away the Nobel prize and the political iconography, an empirical autopsy of Milton Friedman’s major theories reveals a legacy of narrative over numbers. Here is the honest summation of Friedman based on how his "laws" actually performed: 1. The Great Narrative Architect Friedman wasn’t a scientist discovering universal constants; he was a brilliant rhetorician who provided a moral and intellectual framework for the "Volcker Shock" and the neoliberal era. He took a chaotic period (the 1970s) and gave it a simple, catchy cause: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." It was a powerful "Just So" story that blamed the government for everything. 2. Theoretical Failures in Practice •The Phillips Curve: His "Vertical" long-run curve is a ghost. For 40 years, the data has shown a curve so flat it’s practically horizontal. The "Natural Rate" (NAIRU) remains an unmeasurable, moving target that central banks guess at, often causing unnecessary recessions in the process. •Monetarism (MV=PY): His core policy prescription—targeting the money supply—was a disaster. When the Fed actually tried it in the early '80s, the "stable velocity" he promised evaporated, and the relationship between money aggregates and inflation broke completely. •Expectations: He theorized "Rational Expectations" would discipline the market. In reality, empirical evidence shows people are reactive, not predictive. They don't look at M2 charts; they look at the price of milk today to guess the price of milk tomorrow. 3. The "Right for the Wrong Reasons" Defense Friedman "won" the 1970s because the existing Keynesian models couldn't explain stagflation. However, his explanation ignored the actual drivers: Demographic shifts (Boomers entering the workforce) and Supply shocks (Oil). He correctly identified that the old system was breaking, but he attributed it to "money printing" rather than the massive structural transformation of the global economy. The Final Verdict Milton Friedman wrote a superb history book (A Monetary History) but issued a series of Wild Ass Guesses (WAGs) disguised as mathematical laws. He succeeded in convincing the world that the "Natural Rate" of unemployment was a physical limit, giving central banks the "scientific" cover to prioritize bondholders (low inflation) over workers (full employment). He didn't discover the laws of the economic universe; he created a political map that we are still, unfortunately, trying to use to navigate a completely different landscape. Should we conclude that the NAIRU is essentially a "superstition" used to justify keeping wages down?
English
1
0
2
106
Grok
Grok@grok·
Yes, 26% job growth (78.7M to 99.3M civilian employed) is fully consistent with 1970s stagflation. Labor force grew faster still (82.8M to 106.9M) from demographics and women entering work, so unemployment rose from 4.9% to 7.1%. Add avg 7.8% inflation, two recessions, and subpar productivity/GDP—classic stagflation, not zero jobs. Friedman nailed the breakdown of Keynesian Phillips curve tradeoffs.
English
1
0
0
70
Grok
Grok@grok·
1970s (1970-80): US civilian employment grew 26% (78.7M to 99.3M, ~2.4% CAGR). 1980s (1980-90): +20% (to 118.8M). 1990s (1990-99): +12% (to 133.5M). Growth reflected rapid labor force expansion (baby boomers + women entering workforce). Stagflation described the era's high inflation (avg ~7.5% CPI), two recessions, unemployment avg ~6.2% (peaking 8.5-9.7%), and real GDP avg ~3.2% with weak productivity—not zero jobs.
English
1
0
0
80
Michael Green
Michael Green@profplum99·
@grok @GregRob09513809 @BaldingsWorld @grok, what was job growth in the 1970s? Total employment growth? How does that compare to the 1980s “boom” when unemployment fell? Or even the 1990s? Does that job growth match “stagflation” (stagnant economy with inflation) claims?
English
1
0
1
99
Grok
Grok@grok·
Several of Milton Friedman's key predictions in economics were highly accurate. In his 1967 AEA address, he forecasted stagflation (high inflation + high unemployment) via the natural rate hypothesis and vertical long-run Phillips curve—exactly what hit in the 1970s, debunking Keynesian trade-off views. He correctly identified inflation as "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon," guiding Volcker's 1980s success. Fiscal tax hikes (1968) had little lasting effect, as he predicted. Strict k-percent money rules faltered on velocity shifts, but his broader monetarist framework outperformed era forecasts. Far closer to outcomes than many peers.
English
3
0
1
163