Michael Green
39.3K posts
Michael Green
@profplum99
Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of top ranked high yield ETF, $CDX. Not investment advice
Places unknown Katılım Aralık 2012
1.4K Takip Edilen241.5K Takipçiler
@smarketdynamics @FTC Bloomberg and Excel do not play nice on that platform
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@profplum99 @FTC No viable alternatives?
Ubuntu has been a very viable one for me. Stable. Free. And when I want updates:
sudo apt update && sudo apt upgrade -y
No forced restart. No “working on updates” ambush. No computer suddenly becoming Microsoft’s property for 45 minutes.
Lovely.
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Dear Microsoft,
Thank you for the critical update reboot of my entire system at 2pm.
Price increases are appreciated as well, as they have reminded me of my inability to avoid them.
Yours truly,
A Customer With No Viable Alternatives
Cc: @FTC
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Found these probabilities from J.H. Whitney on US/China escalation probabilities to be quite interesting. "Full Reimplementation" referse to Rare Earth restriction.
linkedin.com/pulse/china-ge…
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This post on @zerohedge and the original post by @jeremyct are fabrications designed to farm outrage. I 100% agree the BLS has "substituted" a sizeable quantity of the grocery inflation out. But look at the image -- "Great Value" is a Walmart brand. And no other details are presented other than "Trust us bro"
I decided to do the exact same and look at my receipts from 2020. On average, my grocery bill apples:apples is up 57% versus May 2020. This is roughly double the BLS math which claims 27% for CPI Food at Home.
It's really unfortunate that the BLS views pork as a substitute for salmon, although I understand why. The CPI is reporting a cost of surviving, not a constant standard of living. This creates the sort of distrust that can be exploited to drive further outrage. And the answer to outrage is to "buy peace."
But it really sucks that engagement farming is driving further distrust in our society. Really sucks.
zerohedge@zerohedge
A 28 Item Grocery Order From Target That Cost $64.50 In 2020 Now Costs $158.30 zerohedge.com/personal-finan…
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History doesn't repeat... but it does rhyme.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Stre…
Benny Johnson@bennyjohnson
JUST IN: Explosive Device Detonated Outside Federal Plaza in NYC—Suspect in Custody Mamdani's New York City is falling apart.
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Amazing how easy it was to understand when we were criticizing Europe for relying on and then blocking cheap Russian gas...
(I can't believe I'm reposting Chamath favorably)
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath
The leading AI has already forked into two options. A: Closed source American that costs $26-56 per 1MM tokens. B: Open weight Chinese that costs $0.50-1 per 1MM tokens. If you force American companies to spend 50-100x more than their competitors abroad here is what will happen: 1. American companies spending 50-100x will at some point become financially impaired and the stock market will crater. This is the equivalent of the US Government saying we can only buy oil at $800/barrel even when the free market sells the same oil for $80/barrel. 2. In the short term, the revenues of the Closed American Labs may remain hi. But then their revenue will also crater because their customers in the US will be impaired and their customers abroad will have already flipped to cheaper solutions. This would be a terribly self-defeating form of intervention if it were to happen.
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@fomomomomia @FTC Green Apple is a competitor to Microsoft in the corporate sector? Never heard of them.
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It’s not specific to 2025. It’s camouflaged by the short time period, but “experiences” require people and a fixed amount of time, eg Disneyland. Hard to get meaningful cost savings or productivity gains.
Mortgage applications can be turned into a product (eg washing machines for washer women) and the time saved is quickly reallocated to “experiences.”
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"consumer experiences" continue to outperform
irl experience-spending pacing overall service spending
cc @pmarca
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@DavidBCollum Perhaps they do not understand what defense is…
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This happens to me all the time:
1. Smart guy says, "This stock is now really cheap."
2. I check and find large debt-to-revenue, stupidly high P/E, a dividend within a rounding error of zero, all variants of cash flow of squat.
In 1981, the P/E was 6. Almost half of the market had P/Es below 6.
Conclusion: It is hard to keep historical metrics in perspective when markets are raging. Boomers do not have their defense on the field. They should.
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First they put lipstick on pigs. Then they wrap it in furs and call it a sheep. Then they put it on stilts and call it a horse. Finally, pensions ride it off a cliff.
Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets)@NickNemo17
There are going to be riots when this is eaten by the taxpayers. Riots.
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@MMTmacrotrader We did it in 1999-2000 due to Boomer demographic tailwind. And everyone seemed to think it was great.
Somehow MMT needs to get to the point that it acknowledges “spending” can be productive or unproductive. Both stave off recessions. Only one raises long-term outcomes.
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Obviously it'd lead to a massive recession so I don't actually want this reality, but at least it'd wake a few more people up to understanding the basics of sectors, balance sheets and public finance.
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There is a little part of me that one day hopes we can run a surplus again just to demonstrate what deficit spending actually is.
Wall Street Mav@WallStreetMav
"You are spending $7.5 trillion?" Congress: "Yes Dave" "And you only have $5.5 trillion in revenue?" Congress: "That's correct Dave" "And you have $39.5 trillion in debt and 42% of all income tax revenue goes to paying interest?" Congress: "That's correct Dave"
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@mark_dow Well… he earned a follow as the “last bull standing” (alongside his legions of “Here with you, bro!” replies)
Will be interesting to watch if nothing else🧐
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@profplum99 Top-10 weight went 27% (2000) → 40% today. But the excess over their earnings share is 8.7pp — a record; in 2015 it was ~0. Concentration alone isn't the disease. Is passive flow the cause here, or just the amplifier? (as-of 2026-07-10)
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“This is an interesting, data-driven approach to showing something that some passive investing sceptics have long argued. Unterberg’s paper won the Two Sigma Award for “Best Paper in Investment Management” at the Western Finance Association’s 2026 confab last month.
But Alphaville has some niggly issues with the argument, one specific and one more general.”
@RobinWigg with a nice discussion of a paper demonstrating what I’ve been showing for over a decade. Also evidence that you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them drink.
ft.com/content/2f744d… Passive flows -> active woes?
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
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