Nate Perius

256 posts

Nate Perius

Nate Perius

@MT_NateP

Civil Engineer by trade. Sports/geography nerd and wana be ski bum at heart.

Montana, USA Katılım Eylül 2022
237 Takip Edilen16 Takipçiler
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
Historical calculated expectations (and rankings) for FCS programs after each season since 1978. Methodology described here: reddit.com/r/fcs/s/r552j6…
Nate Perius tweet mediaNate Perius tweet media
English
0
4
3
1K
Joey V
Joey V@MarkMor96582515·
@Reddit_FCS @MT_NateP How did you factor in Idaho's 4 FBS Bowl wins? That Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is prestigious... But in all seriousness, it does make me wonder if you counted Idaho's record vs FCS teams while Idaho was FBS. I'm assuming you threw out their FBS record? Otherwise we'd be dead last
English
2
0
1
113
RedditFCS
RedditFCS@Reddit_FCS·
A fan (@MT_NateP) over on /r/FCS proposed an FCS Tier List for the subdivision moving forward. Let's hear your thoughts! Note: This is NOT a tier list of the historically best programs NOR specific to the '25 season. Methodology explained in thread link. reddit.com/r/fcs/comments…
RedditFCS tweet mediaRedditFCS tweet media
English
3
5
37
6.9K
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@jamesaldrich25 @FCSFansNation @Reddit_FCS How good a team has been (on average) the last 5 years is 41.5% of the calculation. The 10 years before that is 27.7%, the 15 years before that is 18.5%, and the 17 years before that is 12.3%
English
1
0
4
337
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
Updated FCS expectations tier list following the 2024 season. Tiers show what general level of expectations can reasonably be had for each program going forward (and NOT for just next season) based on how good they have been in the past. reddit.com/r/fcs/s/49iS3l…
Nate Perius tweet media
English
5
11
74
12.6K
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@mattyfbrown And they do the exact opposite. 1 play TD drive for the Lions. Yikes
English
0
0
0
110
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@pstreat3 @Reddit_FCS UT Martin has been a fringe T-25 team on average the last 5 years, but every era before that their average finish was outside the top 50. In fact most of the time they were averaging outside the top 75.
English
1
0
1
136
Nate Perius retweetledi
RedditFCS
RedditFCS@Reddit_FCS·
Back in May, a fan over in /r/FCS proposed an FCS tier list for expectations of the subdivision moving forward. And now that fan (/u/MT_Nate, aka @MT_NateP) is back with an update! old.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments…
RedditFCS tweet media
English
5
10
88
15.6K
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@Reddit_FCS Thanks for sharing the new version! This time I also included a chart showing exactly how the different tiers are broken up based on equivalent weighted average finish.
Nate Perius tweet media
English
0
0
2
282
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@Brad64549130 @Reddit_FCS The tier names are more just a way of classifying the tiers and not explicitly about the playoffs. I thought about only including teams from conferences that play in the FCS playoffs, but the Ivies and HBCU's both receive votes in the FCS rankings so I analyzed them as well.
English
0
0
0
33
Brad Arvin
Brad Arvin@Brad64549130·
@Reddit_FCS How can you have Ivy League schools in the Playoff Hopefuls when they don’t participate in the playoffs ?
English
1
0
1
124
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@TylerGMF @Reddit_FCS Add Colorado St to get to 12. That way everyone has their natural rival. WSU-OSU, BSU-UI, UW-CSU, UM-MSU, UND-NDSU, USD-SDSU
English
0
0
0
45
Nostradomus
Nostradomus@TylerGMF·
@Reddit_FCS That would only be 11 schools, no? Maybe include Idaho State or Eastern Washington to get to 12? I have no dog in that fight, but it would be fun to watch.. when available.
English
2
0
0
253
RedditFCS
RedditFCS@Reddit_FCS·
Would instantly be the top non-P4 in the country.
Jesse J. Smith@SanfordJesseS

@Reddit_FCS Grab the 4 Dakota Schools Both Montanas Wash St, Oregon St, Boise State, Wyoming and Idaho. New G5 conference

English
13
13
351
43K
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@lgbtqsyd @Reddit_FCS It's not that they have been a playoff regular, but that it's reasonable to expect them to be one going forward.
English
1
0
1
40
sydney 🦊🇵🇸
sydney 🦊🇵🇸@lgbtqsyd·
@Reddit_FCS Laughing at UA making the playoffs twice in last five years and being counted as regulars lol
English
1
0
1
381
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@bed__wards @Reddit_FCS They are the team I expect to "overachieve" the most according to the graphic. The graphic is based solely on past results (to keep my biases out as much as possible) and they just don't have the history of success (2 winning seasons since rejoining FCS)... yet.
English
0
0
1
68
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@skramerwrites @Reddit_FCS Idaho is the team I most expect to exceed what I calculated. They just haven't had the history of success yet (2 winning seasons since rejoining FCS) for the formula to have them higher on the list.
English
0
0
0
105
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@JDWilliams23 @Reddit_FCS I by no means expect it to be perfectly accurate. It's really based on the old adage that "the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior". Another way to think about it is how good programs can be reasonably expected to be based on how good they've been before.
English
2
0
1
227
Jamie Williams
Jamie Williams@JDWilliams23·
@Reddit_FCS @MT_NateP Good deal. Just read that. Cool methodology in a reverse looking ideology. To then purport that to what they "should be" moving forward is where I have a little bit of an issue. But historical, I like it.
English
1
0
2
330
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@Reddit_FCS Thanks for sharing it! I'll try to answer any questions people have about how I created it.
English
0
0
2
724
Grant Woods
Grant Woods@Gdub_Udub·
@JeremiahOshan Really tired of hearing this roster is good enough at this point. It’s just not.
English
1
0
1
353
Jeremiah Oshan
Jeremiah Oshan@JeremiahOshan·
Not a disastrous result but definitely a bad one. Sounders are now the only team to have not scored against the Galaxy, having failed to do so twice. Felt very much like the Austin game earlier this year (also 0-0 with lots of low probability shots).
English
21
2
112
11.6K
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@DannyBKelly The fact that they have to call it "chocolatey" should be a red flag.
English
0
0
0
32
Danny Kelly
Danny Kelly@DannyBKelly·
POP TARTS MUST BE STOPPED!!
Danny Kelly tweet media
English
10
0
38
12.7K
Danny Kelly
Danny Kelly@DannyBKelly·
absolutely heinous.
Danny Kelly tweet media
English
54
3
276
417.7K
Nate Perius
Nate Perius@MT_NateP·
@celebrityhottub The Montana schools will meet in the FCS playoffs and the whole state subsequently explodes
English
0
0
0
12