Nate Perius

Historical calculated expectations (and rankings) for FCS programs after each season since 1978. Methodology described here: reddit.com/r/fcs/s/r552j6…

@MarkMor96582515 @Reddit_FCS For this exercise, i only included Idaho's seasons in FCS

@Reddit_FCS @MT_NateP How did you factor in Idaho's 4 FBS Bowl wins? That Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is prestigious... But in all seriousness, it does make me wonder if you counted Idaho's record vs FCS teams while Idaho was FBS. I'm assuming you threw out their FBS record? Otherwise we'd be dead last

A fan (@MT_NateP) over on /r/FCS proposed an FCS Tier List for the subdivision moving forward. Let's hear your thoughts! Note: This is NOT a tier list of the historically best programs NOR specific to the '25 season. Methodology explained in thread link. reddit.com/r/fcs/comments…

@jamesaldrich25 @FCSFansNation @Reddit_FCS How good a team has been (on average) the last 5 years is 41.5% of the calculation. The 10 years before that is 27.7%, the 15 years before that is 18.5%, and the 17 years before that is 12.3%

@MT_NateP @FCSFansNation @Reddit_FCS Based on how good they've been in the past in general, or based on how they've been in the past 3 years?

Updated FCS expectations tier list following the 2024 season. Tiers show what general level of expectations can reasonably be had for each program going forward (and NOT for just next season) based on how good they have been in the past. reddit.com/r/fcs/s/49iS3l…

@mattyfbrown And they do the exact opposite. 1 play TD drive for the Lions. Yikes

Defense must get a stop

@pstreat3 @Reddit_FCS UT Martin has been a fringe T-25 team on average the last 5 years, but every era before that their average finish was outside the top 50. In fact most of the time they were averaging outside the top 75.

@Reddit_FCS @MT_NateP UT Martin disrespected here

Back in May, a fan over in /r/FCS proposed an FCS tier list for expectations of the subdivision moving forward. And now that fan (/u/MT_Nate, aka @MT_NateP) is back with an update! old.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments…

@Reddit_FCS Thanks for sharing the new version! This time I also included a chart showing exactly how the different tiers are broken up based on equivalent weighted average finish.

@celebrityhottub @el_surberino I've been binging We're Not All Like This while traveling and have been loving it! If you guys ever want to do a special episode and mess with the format a bit, may I suggest a #BrawlOfTheWild episode covering both @MSUBobcats_FB & @MontanaGrizFB

@Brad64549130 @Reddit_FCS The tier names are more just a way of classifying the tiers and not explicitly about the playoffs. I thought about only including teams from conferences that play in the FCS playoffs, but the Ivies and HBCU's both receive votes in the FCS rankings so I analyzed them as well.

@Reddit_FCS How can you have Ivy League schools in the Playoff Hopefuls when they don’t participate in the playoffs ?

A fan (/u/MT_Nate) over on /r/FCS proposed an FCS Tier List for the subdivision moving forward. Let's hear your thoughts! old.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments…

@TylerGMF @Reddit_FCS Add Colorado St to get to 12. That way everyone has their natural rival. WSU-OSU, BSU-UI, UW-CSU, UM-MSU, UND-NDSU, USD-SDSU

@Reddit_FCS That would only be 11 schools, no? Maybe include Idaho State or Eastern Washington to get to 12? I have no dog in that fight, but it would be fun to watch.. when available.

Would instantly be the top non-P4 in the country.

@lgbtqsyd @Reddit_FCS It's not that they have been a playoff regular, but that it's reasonable to expect them to be one going forward.

@Reddit_FCS Laughing at UA making the playoffs twice in last five years and being counted as regulars lol

@Reddit_FCS @drnoe5 @TNTechFootball Correct. I skipped them on accident when building the graphic.

@drnoe5 @TNTechFootball Apparently was a mistake in making the graphic in missing putting them in. Not sure where @MT_NateP intended them though.

@bed__wards @Reddit_FCS They are the team I expect to "overachieve" the most according to the graphic. The graphic is based solely on past results (to keep my biases out as much as possible) and they just don't have the history of success (2 winning seasons since rejoining FCS)... yet.

@Reddit_FCS Idaho criminally underrated

@skramerwrites @Reddit_FCS Idaho is the team I most expect to exceed what I calculated. They just haven't had the history of success yet (2 winning seasons since rejoining FCS) for the formula to have them higher on the list.

@JDWilliams23 @Reddit_FCS I by no means expect it to be perfectly accurate. It's really based on the old adage that "the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior". Another way to think about it is how good programs can be reasonably expected to be based on how good they've been before.

@Reddit_FCS @MT_NateP Good deal. Just read that. Cool methodology in a reverse looking ideology. To then purport that to what they "should be" moving forward is where I have a little bit of an issue. But historical, I like it.

@Reddit_FCS Thanks for sharing it! I'll try to answer any questions people have about how I created it.

@Gdub_Udub @JeremiahOshan Eventually you are what your record says you are. And their record doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

@JeremiahOshan Really tired of hearing this roster is good enough at this point. It’s just not.

Not a disastrous result but definitely a bad one. Sounders are now the only team to have not scored against the Galaxy, having failed to do so twice. Felt very much like the Austin game earlier this year (also 0-0 with lots of low probability shots).

@DannyBKelly The fact that they have to call it "chocolatey" should be a red flag.

POP TARTS MUST BE STOPPED!!

absolutely heinous.

@celebrityhottub The Montana schools will meet in the FCS playoffs and the whole state subsequently explodes