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M_C_SEAMAN

M_C_SEAMAN

@M_C_SEAMAN

Katılım Ocak 2021
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now up 9.5% from its August 5th low adding $4.3 TRILLION in market cap. That's $4.3 trillion in 13 trading days or $330 billion of market cap PER DAY since August 5th. The S&P 500 is now just 1% away from new all time high territory and up 18% YTD. This is the most resilient market of all time.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Henrik Zeberg
Henrik Zeberg@HenrikZeberg·
How on Earth, "the Liquiditists" (my name for this particular group) can look at this and conclude: "Liquidity will save the Economy". Well - did they actually check the chart? We are in 2007 "liquidity-wise". Was 2008 a great year for RISK-ON?? Was 2008 a great year for the Economy? At the same time, they reject the most massive yield inversion we have seen since 1929 - while the consumer is struggling. And Market Capitalization to GDP is ~200% (~107% in 2007). #RecessionIScoming
Henrik Zeberg tweet mediaHenrik Zeberg tweet media
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Stefan Krauter
Stefan Krauter@solarpapst·
@MichaelAArouet No, Germany had nuclear for 60 years and coal didn't go down, coal was needed for a kind of flexibility. Coal went down only with Renewables and nuclear fade out, as can be seen on the graphs.
Stefan Krauter tweet mediaStefan Krauter tweet media
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M_C_SEAMAN
M_C_SEAMAN@M_C_SEAMAN·
@HenrikZeberg x.com/kobeissiletter…
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

This is concerning: The US unemployment rate has risen for 4 consecutive months, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Over the last 75 years, every time unemployment rose for 4 consecutive months, the US economy entered recession. The jobless rate has surged from 3.8% in March to 4.3% in July, its highest level since October 2021. Meanwhile, the US hires rate declined to 3.4% in July, its lowest level since the 2020 Pandemic and below the pre-pandemic average of 3.8%. The US labor market is contracting.

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Dr. Daniel Stelter
Dr. Daniel Stelter@thinkBTO·
Gedanken zum „#Börsenbeben“ 1. es ist eine Kombination aus:  a) zu großer #Euphorie in den letzten Monaten, getrieben vor allem durch das Thema Künstliche Intelligenz (#KI), was auch Märkte wie den #DAX gezogen hat, trotz der fundamentalen Probleme; 1/2
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Henrik Zeberg
Henrik Zeberg@HenrikZeberg·
No 😊 I don’t agree! The Fed is always late. By fabric as they use inflation as a guidance on when to cut rates. That is looking out the rear window as you drive forwards. Inflation is a lagging indicator on the economy. And before the Financial Crisis, the Fed began to cut in Sept. 2007. They cut by 50 basis points. Market Top was in October 2007. Recession began in Dec. 2007. I think we will see a replay of that. And btw - so many indicators are pointing Recession by end of this year.
Henrik Zeberg tweet media
jebus@smw000001

@ChifoiCristian @HenrikZeberg do u agree ?

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Henrik Zeberg
Henrik Zeberg@HenrikZeberg·
Recession IS coming! You may not like it. You may not understand it. But the Economy is slowing rapidly - and a major Recession is unavoidable. Likely to begin in Q4. But first…. #BlowOffTop 🚀🚀🚀
David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

Pending home sales, the quintessential leading indicator for housing with all its powerful multiplier impacts, dropped -2.1% MoM in May, slicing below the April 2020 recession low and now the weakest since the series began in the 2001 downturn. But there’s no recession coming right? Sure.

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Henrik Zeberg
Henrik Zeberg@HenrikZeberg·
Since October 2022, I have consistently been calling for a #BlowOffTop in #Equities and #crypto. A very strong Bull Market into the final phase of the Business Cycle - with monthly gains surpassing previous Bull runs. Late 2022 and early 2023, very few understood this! Now I present to you: "The Blow-Off-Top". This is for #SP500 - and it is NOT FINAL. Still more room to go - but it is coming to a final top soon. Similar for #Nasdaq. For more risky asset classes, the final phase of this Blow-Off-Top will be the most explosive, as investors believe the Economy will continue to grow - and seek towards #SmallCaps and #Alts for return. This is the SPECULATIVE END = FOMO! This is "THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE" Recession WILL set in by late 2024 - and markets will top out few months before. Now - while enjoying the returns on existing LONG RISK ASSETS POSITIONS, I will now start to prepare for what comes next.
Henrik Zeberg tweet mediaHenrik Zeberg tweet mediaHenrik Zeberg tweet media
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CAPT. PARA8OLIC TOBLERONE
CAPT. PARA8OLIC TOBLERONE@CaptToblerone·
@raa3ee3 Sorry! My tweets are not signals. They are only my speculative thoughts. Not to be considered as a financial advice.
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