Crude Macro 🛢️

@MMT_Official_ @marketwizard Let's take property. For instance, if somebody really wants to liquidate ahead of everybody else they would just do it at the current price as opposed to wait for a price which everybody is willing to sell it for

@MacroCrude @marketwizard With 36M on the line the difference of 2k in price is quite a bit.

Wall sitting at 78350-78370. Delta -915K. Nobody breaking through. Floor at 78100. 207M depth. Well defended. Price sandwiched between both. See it.

@MMT_Official_ @marketwizard But what if it never gets struck? And if these same people know about these walls, they would much rather front run it then wait for those levels. I don't understand. It's a good perspective you have shared though

@ChentoTrades I'm short but increasingly looking like they're going to test the '80s and flush the Bears like me

Perspective, would you long or short this? bitcoin:native

@MMT_Official_ @marketwizard I don't really understand why these walls exist. If somebody was really wanted to sell they could have just sold it now. Why wait for 80,000?

@marketwizard Don't scare us on the weekend.

@missrobinson Surry Hills Bourke street

Taking part in the Australian cafe humiliation ritual

@AvidCommentator But the coal still comes from Australia though. And all the minerals that we send off and if there is no diesel because

I've got good news and bad news. The good news is Chinese imports of LNG have plummeted, replaced by piped gas and domestic coal. LNG exports from the U.S have surged to all time highs and the new Qatari owned plant in the U.S just kicked off exports. Up to half the shortfall in lost LNG supply may be made up by these factors and China onselling contracted imports of LNG. For the world, this is great, because it means a smaller loss of net gas supply and more gas for fertiliser production. The bad news from a very Australian perspective is that our hand just got a whole lot weaker. Playing hard ball if it comes to the crunch is going to be significantly more challenging than if these factors did not arise. Chart: Bloomberg

@VKMacro Now that the banks and the consultancies have folded their $140 and $200 forecasts. And they are all justifying why oil is here it's time for oil to rip higher

JPM oil note is very good. The most surprising to me was their ME demand destruction number Genuinely can’t believe it’s so big

@AvidCommentator We have also had instances in the past where Iranian crude has gone as Iraqi crude

That's a good question. If we assume that all oil exports are cut off and production is cut by roughly 1/3, which is a relatively viable position in terms of restarting to full tilt on a short term time horizon, that buys the Iranians about 7 weeks before onshore storage is full. Throw in shadow fleet tankers now potentially trapped in the Persian Gulf, of which there are potentially dozens by some reports, that is probably another 5 or 6 weeks in terms of an off the cuff estimate. That being said, the U.K Financial Times is reporting that 10m barrels worth of Iranian crude has made it through the U.S blockade, so the impact may be more limited than the headlines would suggest. Charts: @anasalhajji, ANZ Research

Lets assume that the IRGC are idiots and they havent spent most of the last 7 weeks making bank on elevated oil prices. They have up to 194 million barrels of oil in floating storage. Now unless Trump is going to start seizing these ships from their anchorages, they have probably 6+ months worth of pre-war oil revenues just sitting there at $100 a barrel. At higher oil prices longer still. Squeezing Iran financially through oil revenues alone is going to take a lot longer than the time it will take for a major global economic crisis to start to unfold.

@MalayalamReview Nepotism

A wholesome family entertainer, #AshakalAayiram brings together Jayaram and Kalidas Jayaram, and that real-life father–son bond itself adds a natural warmth to the film. With its mix of emotion, light moments, and relatable family dynamics, it comes across as the kind of feel-good story that connects across ages and makes it an easy pick for a family watch. Streaming Now On Zee5

@Fintech00 Firstly, parents need to get out of the smartphone before anything else. Then they will find enough time for everything to play with their kids. Everything that's all

Dear parents of toddlers between 2-5 years old....How u guyz are keeping them busy without giving Smartphone? Throw some Ideas plz.

@MalayalamReview We need to start having movies where young people can start climbing coconut trees again that they can know how to open coconuts what these days only some false hope college love and not doing anything useful. Really making franchise and movies out of it the real culture

#Premalu2 feels like a major missed opportunity as a franchise film. At a time when franchise films are dominating the Kerala box office, this could’ve easily capitalized on that momentum. The first film built a strong, youthful fanbase ~ not just in Kerala but outside the state as well. From a box office perspective, this is clearly a big miss for Mollywood.

@aarondmiller2 That's the most hated rally in the S&P 500. The hatest weakness in the oil futures and now it will also be the hatest agreement by the intellectuals

The JCPOA was 18 pages of text and 141 pages of technical annexes. Even a 3 page MOU that deals with enrichment and HEU would need to be detailed and worked out with inspections, A framework accord raises a universe of details.

That is almost an intellectual vengeance here by those analysts and people who were calling for $150 $200 oil. They keep living in this denialism that the street is clause that they know something that the market doesn't and the market is not pricing it correctly or if it is

@imPenny2x Human nature greed is good. Even in the age of abundance there will be aspirations and if people cannot achieve those aspirations because they are only getting a drip feed rat size universal income, there is a lot of discontent society as a whole does not work unfortunately with

99% of people really do not understand abundance as Elon describes it. The fundamental reason is that they don’t understand compound growth. Same people who would probably pick 1 million dollars today over a penny that doubles in value every day for 30 days. It’s a bad choice by the way. You lose out on millions. Imagine if that doubling object was a labor producing robot instead of a penny. Compounding labor. It’s actually crazy if you try and wrap your mind around it. So Elon mentions Universl High Income and the midwits flip a lid. “The elites won’t share” You don’t get it. They won’t need to share. They will make everything so cheap, it is effectively free. Charities will have immense resources to distribute. Unfathomable intelligence will exist to help optimize production and distribution. An unfathomably large labor pool will exist that operates on solar power exclusively. The public work projects that are erected will be unseen before levels of breathtaking. I think we are incredibly blessed to steward this new age of abundance. Can you see it now? Can you see the future?

@JavierBlas There were so many pundits talking about oil price shouldn't be this low. It should be much higher given the tightness started. Talking about physical barrels. Started talking about their advanced tanker tracking. I wonder if this will cost any humility among the analytical

It turns out that oil financial and physical markets do converge -- just not in the way that many were expecting. Dated Brent is now below $100 a barrel (from $145 last week), and physical differentials in the key pricing window have plunged >$10 from a few days ago.

@JavierBlas It is the most hated breakdown because those tracking tankers those doing the heavy analytical work. The intellectual powerhouses keep saying that oil should be much higher, much stronger and look where we are. It is also the most hated equity rally right now because people miss

@JavierBlas This is the most hated oil breakdown ever. The oil consultancies got it wrong. The investment Banks were putting their 15,200 barrel forecasts various scenarios. Even calling out the fact that oh there is a big disconnect between physical and financial only to see the oil fall

This is the most hated rally in history. The pundits got it so wrong. The million-dollar consultancies the hedge funds. Nobody got this right. They got the oil call wrong. They got everything $200 $150 oil never came

@KingKong9888 At least it's an option, just longer. The spice will flow

@MacroCrude Because that’s near Australia.

Thailand’s Kra Land Bridge: The Realistic Shortcut Moving Forward to “bypass” the strait of Malacca (as of April 2026) 🚨Instead of digging a massive sea-level canal across southern Thailand’s narrow Kra Isthmus, Thailand is actively advancing the Land Bridge project. This ambitious infrastructure initiative connects the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean side) with the Gulf of Thailand (Pacific/South China Sea side) via modern land transport, delivering similar time-saving benefits for global shipping without the extreme engineering, environmental, and political risks of a full canal. 🚨What Is the Land Bridge Project? ⭕️ Core Components: • Two new deep-sea ports: Ranong (Andaman Sea side) and Chumphon (Gulf of Thailand side). • A ~90–100 km multimodal corridor linking them, including: • A four-lane highway (motorway). • A double-track railway. • Possible oil/gas pipelines. • Supporting facilities: transshipment hubs, special economic zones, logistics parks, and smart port technologies. ⭕️ Main Goal: Allow cargo ships to unload on one side, transfer containers/trucks/trains across the isthmus quickly (in hours instead of days), and reload on the other side. This creates a fast overland shortcut that bypasses the congested Strait of Malacca. Current Status and Timeline (April 2026) • The Thai government (under the Bhumjaithai-led administration) continues to push the project as a flagship policy. ⭕️ Cost: Recently scaled down to approximately THB 990–997 billion (~US$27–28 billion), reflecting adjusted economic conditions. ⭕️ Timeline: • Bidding/tender process targeted for 2026 (some reports mentioned late 2025 preparations). • Construction to begin in 2026. • Phase 1 operational by ~2030 (ports + initial rail/highway links). • Full phased development extending into the 2030s (up to 2036–2038 for capacity expansion). ⭕️ Investment model: Public-Private Partnership (PPP) with a long concession period (e.g., 50 years). The government plans a single “One Port, Two Sides” package for bidding, attracting both Thai and international investors. • Strong interest already shown from companies in China, India, UAE, Japan, Europe, and others. Over 100 firms have reportedly expressed interest. ⭕️ Benefits • For Shipping: Could shorten transit times by 2–4+ days for routes between East Asia (including southern China) and South Asia/Middle East/Europe, reducing fuel costs and congestion in Malacca. • For Thailand: Projected GDP boost (~1.5%), creation of up to 280,000 jobs, development of southern provinces, and positioning Thailand as a major regional logistics hub (similar to the success of the Eastern Economic Corridor). ⭕️ Economic Multiplier: New ports, industrial zones, and connectivity could attract manufacturing, energy transshipment, and high-value logistics. ⭕️ Geopolitical Angle: How Much Can China Rely on Thailand? China views the project positively as it helps ease its “Malacca Dilemma” — the strategic vulnerability of relying on the US-influenced Strait of Malacca for most of its energy and trade imports. Chinese firms (e.g., China Harbour Engineering) have shown interest, and the Land Bridge could integrate well with China-Laos-Thailand rail links for seamless cargo flow from southern China. ⭕️ However, Thailand’s hedging strategy (“bamboo diplomacy”) limits full dependence: • Thailand is a long-standing US treaty ally with deep military ties (e.g., Cobra Gold exercises). • The project is deliberately open to multiple investors — not China-exclusive. Thailand has actively pitched it to the US, Japan, Middle East, and others. • No plans for Chinese-controlled naval facilities or exclusive dominance. • Thailand prioritizes sovereignty, balanced relations, and avoiding debt traps or geopolitical entanglement. 🔶Realistic Outlook for China: It can participate economically and gain incremental route diversification and logistics benefits.