MacroScope
4.7K posts
@MacroScope17
Topics: institutional trading, asset management and monetary policy. Tweets are opinions only and are not intended as advice.
San Salvador's historic center is thriving. Assistant Secretary Caleb Orr toured the revitalized downtown with the Tourism Ministry—a testament to President Bukele's vision for a safe and prosperous El Salvador. The government restored landmarks like Plaza Libertad, upgraded infrastructure, and created incentives that attracted over $195 million in private investment. Today, the historic center is a vibrant hub for art, culture, and families, proof that security and economic growth go hand in hand. #CentroHistórico
The deadline for 13F filings is mid-May. During the next two weeks, we’ll see what some closely-watched institutions were buying and selling during the first three months of 2026. Here’s one from Friday. Brown University reported these positions as of March 31: IBIT $8.1 million. 212,500 shares, unchanged from the previous quarter. GLD $16.9 million. 39,500 shares, unchanged from the previous quarter. OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corp) $16.8 million. 1.52 million shares, a decrease of 53% from the previous quarter. They sold the private credit. They kept the Bitcoin and gold. Filing: sec.gov/edgar/search/#…
El Salvador is a critical partner of the United States in the Western Hemisphere. President Bukele’s law-and-order miracle has not only brought freedom and safety for the Salvadoran people, it’s creating one of the best investment climates in the entire region. Our foreign policy interest is for U.S. businesses to participate in and help power El Salvador’s renaissance. Yesterday, Assistant Secretary Orr spoke to a group of over 75 American firms considering investments in El Salvador that will bring prosperity to both our countries.
A bottoming process for BTC is starting to form via IV. Previous market lows have coincided with spikes in IV, and the broader structure shows IV trending lower over time, meaning each panic event is weaker. (More institutional). If IV continues to drop while price holds or even sweeps back in the $60ks, it would show demand stepping in without panic. It would be a typical sign of accumulation and we have already seen signs of s short squeeze with funding still negative.
BTC comments start at 36:00.
My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time. He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha. He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life." He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett. But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them. Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless World 56:03 Journalism 1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life 1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
WHITE HOUSE CRYPTO ADVISOR PATRICK WITT ON US STRATEGIC $BTC RESERVE: "IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, WE’LL BE MAKING A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT. I THINK WE HAVE A BIT OF A BREAKTHROUGH THERE."
Notable lack of 10am weakness for BTC recently. Speculation abounds.
I posted this on March 21: "The administration -- facing increasingly tough prospects in the midterm elections -- could take some type of high-profile action on BTC as part of a larger agenda to boost voter turnout." If the war starts to quiet down (which now looks possible), watch for the administration to turn its attention to domestic affairs in an attempt to reclaim momentum and boost sentiment that's been lost at the gas pump and elsewhere. This would be the "larger agenda" and it could include various types of stimulus etc. Should be watched closely in coming weeks and months.
Many new institutional eyes on STRC right now. Lots of analysis being done on the potential BTC price impact as this scales up.
