Macro Sentinel

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Macro Sentinel

Macro Sentinel

@Macro_Sentinel

Regime-aware macro + cycle overlay. Walk-forward, pre-registered, public ledger. Often early, sometimes wrong, always show the work.

Empires of the Dollar Katılım Nisan 2026
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
What this account does: Reads the regime change in motion. The 1991-2020 generic-access regime is being repriced along seven structural axes. The Repricing of Locality. Geography is alpha now. So is law, grid capacity, silicon supply. Here's the framework. 🧵
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
Full essay — drawn from *Human Action* and *Theory of Money and Credit*, applied to the actual data of late May 2026 — is up on Substack now. open.substack.com/pub/macrosenti… The accounts will be settled. The only question is who is positioned to read the ledger.
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
12/ This is Part 1 of a 7-part series: 1. The Credit Boom and the Spectacle of Asset Prices ← (this) 2. AI and the New Malinvestment 3. The Interest Rate as the Price of Time 4. Sovereign Debt and the Erosion of Sound Money 5. The Knowledge Problem in the Age of Algorithms 6. The Inevitable Reckoning 7. The Path to Restoration
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
1/ The S&P 500 sits near 7,445. The Buffett ratio just printed 232.7% — an all-time record since the series began in 1990. Every prior peak preceded a multi-year contraction. This isn't prosperity. It's the deceptive bloom of credit expansion. A thread on what Ludwig von Mises would see in 2026 markets. 🧵
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
Stocks pricing in a quick ceasefire win, but bonds calling BS at 5.16% on the 30y — classic divergence. Warsh inherits oil-shock inflation + Trump endorsement optics right before his first hawkish test. Bonds rarely blink first into a long weekend like this. Risk-off setup if Islamabad talks flop tomorrow. What are you positioning for?
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
Credit cycle melt-up still in full force — exactly as I noted on May 5th. SpotGamma showing fresh downside bid + elevated IVs in the 7300s for next week, while gamma flips to -$16bn. Markets are pricing in more protection even as recession odds collapse. Classic late-cycle behavior: liquidity-fueled highs with rising hedging. Boom now, malinvestment correction later.
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
@DianeSwonk Nobody is shocked by this.. it's why the market has started procing in rate hikes.. the jowboning coming from the Ged about lowering rates is just that, jawboning... their minutes reflect the neutral hawkish stance they really have.. doesn't matter what trump wants
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
Recession odds dropping to 16% isn’t strength — it’s the credit cycle melt-up in full effect. Central bank liquidity, deficit spending & easy credit inflating asset prices while masking imbalances. Same dynamic I called on May 5th. Austrian lens: Artificial boom now = sharper bust later. Probability markets lag reality.
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Macro Sentinel
Macro Sentinel@Macro_Sentinel·
@great_martis Brave calling for a mega top here.. credit cycle melt up is in full effect and can last a couple of years.. I tweeted about this on May 5th and since then $SPY is up 3% in 2.5 weeks.. shorts will provide fuel to the fire
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Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )@chigrl·
I just got more bullish hard assets across the board
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos

Key moments from Kevin Warsh's swearing-in at the White House: 1. Trump tells Warsh to be "totally independent." "Don't look at me. Don't look at anybody." 2. Two minutes later, he gives some suggestions by laying out what he's looking for: a booming economy needn't be cooled, and "economic growth doesn't mean inflation." "We want it to boom. We want it to be like nobody has ever had before because we do have some debt we'd like to take care of." 3. Trump suggests the committee will fall in line. The Fed's other policymakers "make their own decisions, but they'll be listening to Kevin all the way" — even those "from a somewhat different persuasion." 4. Greenspan, not Bernanke. Warsh reached back to Greenspan, sworn in at the same spot in 1987, and vowed to lead "with energy and purpose, just the way Chairman Greenspan did." No mention of Ben Bernanke—the chair Warsh served under for all five years as a governor.

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@DianeSwonk @great_martis @chigrl @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates