@Schuldensuehner Net zero…the most expensive political vanity project of our lifetime
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MacroStrategy Partnership
1.5K posts
MacroStrategy Partnership
@MacrostrategyP
Cutting-edge independent research on global macro and markets. Including areas such as derivatives, commodities, equities & fixed income.
London Katılım Ağustos 2022
1.3K Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
Good Morning from Germany, where electricity prices are now regularly falling below zero around midday. On May 1, they even dropped to the floor at -49.999 cents per kilowatt hour. The reason is simple: we are generating more solar power than we can use or store. As a result, Germany has to cover the gap between these negative market prices and the guaranteed feed-in tariffs paid to producers—an expensive outcome. These prices are a clear indication of the utterly disastrous energy transition.
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Scotland’s northern isles extend UK national waters north to cover a larger fossil fuel footprint than its close neighbor Norway (see Chart 1 below). Yet Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, now exceeds $2trn and generated an additional
$247bn in oil proceeds last year from over 4mboepd of oil and gas production; during which time it also drilled 29 new exploration wells. That compares to the UK, which drilled not a single one exploratory well, is barely producing 1mboepd from a larger area, declining at a rate of about -10% a year and is unlikely to have banked even $6bn in oil and gas tax revenue in 2025-26. The ‘declining basin’ argument increasingly sounds like a political smokescreen to disguise the mismanagement of national assets on a truly epic scale.
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He's choosing to save his own skin over every issue...
Here's a little recap of the past 2 years...
Inflation is up
Unemployment is up, at 10 year highs
Youth unemployment is massively up
Business closures up
Deindustrialisation up
Energy bills up even before Iran
Gilt yields higher
The benefits bill is now higher than income tax receipts
And we have the highest tax burden since the 1940s
Plus...under @Keir_Starmer...
Two people with close links to pedophiles were promoted to high office
His ex deputy is in hot water with HMRC
One minister resigned because she turned out to be a literal criminal
His anti corruption minister has been convicted overseas of corruption
A homelessness minister had to resign over evicting tenants
A heath minister resigned after hoping a constituent would die
Another Labour MP resigned after punching a constituent in the face 6x
A Labour MP was suspended after being arrested for sex offences
The Business Secretary thought he was a solicitor when he wasn't
His Chancellor seems extremely confused about her work history. She also failed to get a licence to rent her property
Multiple ministers including the PM accepted gifts including clothes from donors despite earning more than double what most people earn
The Attorney General has failed to act on conflicts of interest and supported baseless lawfare against British soldiers
The Labour Welsh First Minister was forced to resign over so many allegations of corruption it's hard to know where to start typing them
On top of all that there's the cronyism, firing officials without due process, and the Chinese spying case
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Keir Starmer won’t sack Ed Miliband despite *his own* MPs and Ministers telling him that Ed is worsening the cost of living and killing off the North Sea.
Keir has chosen to save his own skin over British living standards and our energy security.
Let that sink in.
Calgie@christiancalgie
Excl: Number of Labour MPs calling for ‘Bat-shit crazy’ Ed Miliband to get sacked at the rumoured reshuffle surges dailymail.com/news/article-1…
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@julianHjessop @labourlewis Honestly, they really need a better social media comms team, as it seems a lot of these incumbents are parroting the same points
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Nothing personal against @labourlewis, but this is yet another example of the ongoing economic illiteracy around energy policy 🙄
In particular...
1⃣ BP is not making "record profits"; in fact, the latest numbers are not that unusual for any global company of this size
2⃣ the market prices of oil and gas have jumped because of a supply shock - this is just economics 101
3⃣ we will continue to need some oil and (especially) gas for the foreseeable future; profits provide the incentive for companies to maintain investment and supply (as well as provide jobs, tax revenues and dividends for UK shareholders)
4⃣ it is clearly far better to source this oil and gas from the North Sea (for which we should be thanking BP, not demonising them)
5⃣ if you want someone to blame for the UK's relatively high energy costs, I'd start closer to home (hint: his first name is 'Ed')
Clive Lewis MP@labourlewis
Big Oil - the real winners of the war in Iran. As people in Norwich South and across the country worry about how they'll afford to pay their energy bills, oil companies like BP celebrate record profits - all thanks to sky rocketing prices off the back of Trump's war. When an economic system allows powerful companies to cash in on war and suffering, it's a sign that there's something fundamentally wrong. theguardian.com/business/2026/…
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Big Ideological Government snuffs out productive growth by making policy choses based on their ideals.
Without productive growth (free market price discovery), we will swing regularly, and much more wildly, between inflation and deflation, depending on the fiscal impulse and chosen government policy.
It is hard to imagine what we could be achieving as a society if our incomes were 2-4x higher and we were free to invest our surplus money unhindered by the state sector.
It is the great sin of Big Government that we are still in the gutter, looking at the stars, rather than building a ladder towards them.
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I'll tell you what I don't like, Darren. I can't speak for everyone, but these are my thoughts…
I don't like a tax burden at its highest level since 1948, under your government and the last, producing the weakest growth in a generation. And worsening public services to boot.
I don't like a 46% hike in the minimum wage for under-21s in three years that's helped push UK youth unemployment to 16.1%, above the eurozone average. I want young people paid more, earned through growth, not handed down by decree that squashes the rungs above them and tells a skilled forty-year-old their two decades of graft are worth precisely the same as someone walking through the door on Monday morning.
I don't like industrial electricity prices that are the highest of any IEA country reporting. Full stop. UK steelmakers pay 40% more than their French competitors. You don't build a future of advanced manufacturing on those numbers.
I don't like a planning system that takes longer to consent a pylon than to build one, business rates that punish high-street enterprise, and employment costs that turn every hire into a risk.
I don't like watching world-class British research get commercialised in Boston and Palo Alto because the capital, the talent and the regulatory patience aren't here. They're fleeing.
I don't like long-term borrowing costs at their highest level in over 25 years, eating into every budget for schools, hospitals and defence before a penny is spent.
I don't like the OECD saying that we're going to be the hardest hit economy as a result of a conflict in the Middle East that's got nothing to do with us. All because we've made ourselves weak and vulnerable.
I don't like a government that confuses 'raising money' with 'creating wealth'. Or 'standing against unearned wealth' with taxing to death the people who actually make things happen in this country.
You don't lift children out of poverty by strangling the economy that pays for their schools. You do it by letting Britain grow again. Letting it play to its abundance of strengths.
In this case, I feel the best way is for government to get the hell out of the way.
Darren Jones MP@darrenpjones
What is it that the Conservatives and Reform don’t like about a Labour government standing against unearned wealth? What is it they don't like about raising money for our state schools, our hospitals, our police, and to lift children out of poverty?
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
‘The bond markets think Britain has gone nuts. If our public finances aren’t fixed – or if a new Labour leader borrows even more – a financial crisis is likely. This will be a disaster for those Labour claims to care about.’
@LiamHalligan on the real crisis facing Britain
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@zerohedge there's not enough ships available for all that oil soon to be freely pumped into the market...
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Once the war is over there will be an oil pumpathon free for all.
zerohedge@zerohedge
OPEC finished
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
The numbers add up as I described here...
watt-logic.com/2026/04/07/ene…
Kemi Badenoch@KemiBadenoch
The Conservatives have a fully costed plan to scrap the Carbon Tax to save British industry and protect our energy security. With war in the Middle East, it's even more important that we have domestic refining capacity. Here’s how we will get Britain working again👇
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
10 years ago I published my very first blog. I was quite nervous about putting my head above the parapet (yes, I know that didn't last!) but from the start it was important to me that my writing was data driven and not just more noise
10 years down the line I'm still talking about the same things. My very first post was about how physics drives the way the energy markets work and the second set out the challenges of renewables
What I could not have imagined was that a decade later things are significantly worse. We're spending £billions to subsidise energy that's supposed to be cheap and then more £billions to fix the problems they cause on our grids - the need for more grid infrastructure, the need for backup generation and storage and the need to spend more on balancing to manage real time intermittency
As a result, electricity prices are so high we're spending £billions to support energy intensive industries and low income households
If ever there was a time to step back and review this mess of interventions, it's now, when another war is bringing the importance of cheap and secure energy into focus
If my blog is still around 10 years from now, I hope the themes will have changed
In the meantime, I'd like to thank all the people who have supported me over the past 10 years...the clients who have put their faith in me, without any financial backing or administrative support behind me; the regular contributors to my blog whose thoughtful comments have raised it from being just another voice to a community of engineers debating issues of real importance to our evolving energy systems; and the many people who have given me their time to share ideas and information over the years. And to my family which has been with me all the way.
#energysecurity #affordableenergy #energypolicy
watt-logic.com/2026/04/27/phy…
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What happens when the government spending is no longer creating even slow growth but causing actual decline & deindustrialisation?....Net Zero, NHS.
It’s not just direct spending by ideological governments, but also regulations that don’t create the utility to pay for themselves. They are unable to create a "positive return" on their investments, which leads to ever more "subsidy / spending" and then higher taxes, further destroying the private sector as a whole.
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
🤔 Can Britain afford Net Zero and the Triple Lock? Is it time to privatise the NHS?
🔥 @M_W_Palmer & @HarryWilkinsonn joined me and @harryricher96 on The Insurgency this week to answer these questions and more.
📺 Not one to be missed!
🔗 youtu.be/S6onCQc-KLc
@Glintpay
YouTube
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
🥀 ‘As one cabinet source says: “It’s all f***ed in fast forward,”’ writes @patrickkmaguire 👇👇
🎪Alas it will soon be a circus again under the next Labour PM, for reasons I gave when I lost: they won’t cut spending but they must
🤦🏻♂️It’s obvious Labour will continue imploding
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@MarioNawfal no place to store oil, those pumps are heading towards "shut-in" where the damage is permanent.....the longer they bluff, the more they destroy the only revenue stream they have.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The new phase of the Iran war has a name: Economic Fury.
The U.S. is now seizing dark fleet tankers carrying Iranian oil, expanding the campaign beyond the Middle East entirely.
The latest seizure happened in the Indo-Pacific. Iran has responded by attacking commercial ships near its coast and refusing to talk until the blockade lifts.
Trump says the blockade stays until there's a deal. Iran says there's no deal until the blockade lifts. Nobody's blinking.
So where does this end up?
Source: Wall Street Journal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Everyone expected the Iran war to crash markets, but it didn't. Here are 5 reasons why: 1) They already priced in the worst. After the initial shock, investors decided a deal gets done eventually. As long as Washington and Tehran are still talking, markets aren't panicking. 2) Dip buyers have been trained. Years of headline-driven chaos have conditioned investors to buy the drop and move on. The Ukraine war playbook from 2022 proved it: initial selloff, commodity surge, then back to business as usual. 3) Oil hasn't broken the economy. Prices are high but not catastrophic. Strategic reserves got released, some spare capacity kicked in, and demand destruction did its job. So far. 4) Earnings are strong. Nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten estimates. Hard to stay bearish when corporate America keeps delivering. 5) AI doesn't care about geopolitics. SK Hynix just posted a 5-fold jump in quarterly profit. TSMC raised its revenue outlook. Samsung posted an 8-fold jump. The AI trade is back and it's loud. The war is real, the economic damage is real. But markets are betting it ends before it gets worse. So far, they're winning that bet. Source: Bloomberg
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@hkuppy They playing for the “oil well shut-in”….no working pumps, no oil to sell, no future money….
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I’m so confused. Seems like we’re going to keep the ceasefire on until Iran can get their shit together, find someone Supreme enough, and then officially tell JD Vance to go fuk himself…?? Is that really our plan..??
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
*TRUMP EXTENDED IRAN CEASEFIRE FOR 3-5 DAYS: WHITE HOUSE TO FOX
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
I wrote to the PM reminding him of his obligations under the Ministerial Code.
He’s at best been recklessly negligent, and at worst completely dishonest. It's time for the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
Parliament and the British people deserve nothing less.
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@TaviCosta excellent piece Otavio, well written and on point!
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The Structural Floor in Energy Prices
substack.com/home/post/p-19…
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What a fascinating chart.
A real sign of the times.
You can’t put the deglobalization toothpaste back in the tube.
H/t to @chigrl for this great chart
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
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@LawrenceLepard He’s sowing the seeds for YCC….it is soon to bloom
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Paulson doing this at this moment is a huge clue. Think about it. He has been silent for years. Now he comes out and foams the runway for some grand plan to do YCC. Coincidence? I don't think so, this cements my belief that they are cooking up a Big Print plan. Bessent and Warsh probably put him up to this. Fascinating stuff. A major trial balloon.
@SimonDixonTwitt @LukeGromen
Nic@nicrypto
Wow. A former US Treasury Secretary suggested US authorities prepare a back-up plan in case of a collapse in demand for Treasuries. This is the same guy who served during the Great Financial Crisis. Nothing to see here...
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
The year is 2028. NASDAQ is celebrating 500 consecutive up days as Trump continually tweets about how great the deal with Iran will be, despite no additional talks having taken place in 2 years…
Brent oil still trades at $100, though physical cargoes trade hands at $500 a barrel. Everyone thinks this is totally normal…
Datacenters now consume $5 trillion of capital annually, despite producing only $50 billion of annual revenues. No one is quite sure how to monetize them, but they build them in the hope that someone else will crack the code…
$MSTR ran out of letters in the alphabet for new preferred securities. The Ponzi is still failing…
Private Credit vehicles have been gated for 3 years now. They trade on the secondary market at 10c of face. Marketing documents focus on the low realized volatility of PIK return streams…
Europe is rolling out its 27th round of climate taxes as it desperately tries to stave off economic collapse…🤣
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
Amazingly, and extremely telling, that bottom tier private credit sponsor has, per Bloomberg, marked UP the value of its large Red Lobster debt position five quarters in a row! Marked it UP?!?! Looks like PIK “magic” in action.
RUN, RUN, RUN!!!!!
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MacroStrategy Partnership retweetledi
