Mads Kristensen

@ABoyGrainsFr Heavy longs in #canola as well. Not record positioning yet although bit of the same picture.

@MadsKri Same on canola and basis are record low!

Managed money in #rapeseed are rarely holding big shorts or longs around pre/post harvest. MM/Investment funds are holding close to record net longs. Old crop contract expiry just around the corner. Unless a weather market is eminent, watch out for big liquidation. #OATT

We have updated our @ICISOfficial 𝐋𝐍𝐆 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 to incorporate the latest info on 3-5 year reduced output at @qatarenergy Ras Laffan, the world's biggest LNG export thub. We now expect a 3-month full disruption of Qatari 🇶🇦 and Emirates 🇦🇪 LNG exports from March to May.

Correlation of IV funds net longs and the price of rapeseeds. IVF net longs are totaling 40-41% of total OI, while gross longs are even 49% of total OI. Soon May contract is coming towards expiry and funds are forced to liquidated or spread with not old crop left. #OATT #Oilseed

Position has been building together with increasing energy and vegoil (primarily #soyoil) since start of the year. Growing season is coming, and here longs are normally better rewarded than shorts with weather risks. But so far not too much to worry about.

#Rapeseed is a crowded trade... 🧵 We have been here before a couple of years ago and now we are here again. Managed Money/Investment Funds are holding.

@KobeissiLetter It's not easy to win a war where the greatest act of heroism is to die in war to become a martyr.

BREAKING: Iran responds to President Trump's threat to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened "within 48 hours." Iran's response: 1. Iran will "completely close" the Strait of Hormuz 2. Iran will hit “vital” infrastructure in the Middle East 3. This includes energy, IT, and water desalination facilities 4. Iran’s senior military commander says the country’s military strategy has shifted from defensive to offensive 5. Iranian officials say the country has enough reserves of essential goods to last for up to one year Trump's deadline has 33 hours remaining.

Further #soyoil managed money positioning starts looking like a crowded trade. Gross longs reaching record levels, with gross short still some 20-30k contracts to go to reach the 'lows'. Net longs again reaching historical high levels. #OATT #soy #SBO

Only twice in history the #soybean oil-share have exceeded current levels. Back in 1974/75 also during oil crisis, but not for long. RVO announcement maybe due next week? Can it surprise further to the upside or is it a traditional 'buy the rumor sell the fact'?

@lasse108 $AA

What’s everyone buying tomorrow?

Just so you know, someone did a deep dive on every fertilizer company in early November 2025. Producers : $NTR – Nutrien Ltd – Potash, Nitrogen, Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada $SQM – Sociedad Quí. y Min. de Chile – Potash, Phosphate – 🇨🇱 Chile $MOS – The Mosaic Company – Phosphate, Potash – 🇺🇸 United States $CF – CF Industries – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States $YAR.OL – Yara International – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇳🇴 Norway $ICL – ICL Group – Potash, Phosphate, NPK – 🇮🇱 Israel $SDF.DE – K+S AG – Potash – 🇩🇪 Germany $2020.SR – SABIC Agri-Nutrients – Nitrogen – 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia $ATT.WA – Grupa Azoty – Nitrogen, NPK – 🇵🇱 Poland $0297.HK – Sinofert Holdings – NPK – 🇨🇳 China $IPI – Intrepid Potash – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States $PHOR.ME – PhosAgro – Phosphate – 🇷🇺 Russia $NPK.TO – Verde AgriTech – Potash – 🇧🇷 Brazil $UAN – CVR Partners, LP – Nitrogen – 🇺🇸 United States $IFOS.V – Itafos – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada Developers / Explorers $DAN.V – Arianne Phosphate – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada $MNB.AX – Minbos Resources – Phosphate – 🇦🇴 Angola $GSP.V – Gensource Potash – Potash – 🇨🇦 Canada $KP2.L – Kore Potash – Potash – 🇨🇬 Republic of the Congo $EML.L – Emmerson plc – Potash – 🇲🇦 Morocco $PHOS.CN – First Phosphate Corp – Phosphate – 🇨🇦 Canada $PHO.AX – PhosCo Ltd – Phosphate – 🇹🇳 Tunisia $AEV.AX – Avenira Ltd – Phosphate – 🇦🇺 Australia $AMN.AX – Agrimin Ltd – Potash – 🇦🇺 Australia $AGR.AX – Aguia Resources – Phosphate – 🇧🇷 Brazil $SAGE.V – Sage Potash Corp – Potash – 🇺🇸 United States $MLP.V – Millennial Potash Corp – Potash – 🇬🇦 Gabon

Doesn't seem like there's a lot of Oil/LNG moving through the Strait of Hormuz at all

To watch in the next 24 hours: Japan is on alert for a possible release of its strategic petroleum reserve, the world's 3rd largest (after China and US). Tokyo may act alone, without US/IEA involvement. The American SPR is very well known; so it's the Chinese -- but Japan has its own massive oil stockpile, split in 10 sites (ground tanks, underground tanks, floating tanks and rock caverns). In total, the governmet holds ~260m barrels (vs ~415m for the US). Plus, Tokyo mandates private sector stockpiling, and it has joint agreements with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait to store additional crude in the country. Those deals bring another ~178m barrels. According to official data, Japan holds in total about 440 million barels in stockpile, enough for 204 days of its imports (most from the Middle Easts).

@gabcasla @joeriwestland Excellent, thanks! 🙏

$GLNG Golar update: Southern Energy has today finalized a long-term LNG supply deal for 2 million tonnes annually over 8 years, beginning in late 2027. Transitioning from a Letter of Intent (LOI) to a Letter of Agreement (LOA) fully confirms this agreement. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz nearly closed, threaten 150 Bcm/year or 23% of the global LNG market, putting stress on Europe, notably Germany. Europe understands the importance of diversification beyond cost considerations for its security. It appears to me that Germany might consider funding future LNG projects (like those that Golar can bring) as part of its diversification efforts. Tor Olav Troim recently discussed the importance of the upside commodity exposure Golar maintains under its contracts. I agree that this aspect is undervalued by the market. I am a fan of Golar's contract structure: on the one hand, it has a fixed tolling fee that guarantees strong returns, and on the other hand, it benefits from the commodity upside. Since LNG markets are cyclical—sometimes oversupplied, other times undersupplied—being protected by a fixed tolling fee during weaker gas prices while capturing the upside when prices spike is highly appealing. For example, TTF is currently trading around $19 MMBtu, while Golar earns approximately $70 million annually from Hilli and Fuji ships alone for every $1/MMBtu above $8/MMBtu FOB pricing. This is a significant amount if both vessels were operational today. Last week, we met with Golar management in Madrid. We had a lengthy and very productive discussion, but I need to summarize our meeting: significant developments are imminent. I’ve become much more optimistic about the possibility of another FLNG this year. The fact that they are not placing on-spec orders now isn’t due to waning interest, but rather to a more cautious approach as they near their cash flow valley. From July onward, only Gimi will be operational, while Hilli and Fuji will be cash-consuming at the shipyard. I firmly believe in GLNG’s ability to leverage its position and continue to develop its business, especially given the challenging situation Europeans face with the ME disruption and Russia’s ban in place. Although I am very confident in GLNG's ability to generate more business, I noticed that Tor Olav Troim is not patient. It was very clear during the conference call that Golar is conducting a strategic review that could lead to a sale. Many infrastructure funds would likely be eager to buy this business, especially since they seek predictable, solid cash flows, making it more valuable privately. I see this as a win/win scenario: if Golar can develop new business soon, the stock price will reflect this, not only valuing the current portfolio but also its potential for growth. Conversely, if they do not, the company might be sold at a significant premium compared to current prices. This view was also confirmed by Goldman Sach on its recent paper. Having spent enough time in this sector, I've learned that these companies are usually acquired 6 to 12 months before the expected cash flow materializes. Examples include Cheniere, Var Energy, and BlueNord. However, I believe this situation differs because the risk lies in the upside potential. Primarily, the company isn't reliant on commodity markets; it’s an infrastructure investment with commodity upside but limited downside. Additionally, the potential gains are substantial, as I estimate this could be worth $65 by late 2027. Most importantly, Golar has the opportunity to secure new contracts or be sold within the next 12 months, which could significantly boost the IRR. I have been supporting Golar since 2020, when its stock was below $10. At that time, I estimated that the company could reach $100 by 2030, and I still believe this is very likely. In fact, it is much more challenging to increase from $10 to $45 than from $45 to $100.

The day after we saw a massive jump in the metals and precious metals space, London Metal Exchange delays start of trading Friday due to technical issue. What a coincident. I suspect a lot of margin-call needs to get solved to not force a massive short liquidation.

@tombitcoin @MarioNawfal @IranIntl_En @grok Buy the rumor sell the fact!

@MarioNawfal @IranIntl_En Explain how to make money in this time of uncertainty, @grok?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 OIL JUST SPIKED OVER U.S.-IRAN WAR FEARS Brent crude hit a 6-month high after talk of a possible U.S. strike on Iran. Energy stocks jumped too, so markets aren’t taking this lightly. Source: @IranIntl_En

@Mr_Derivatives x.com/michaelwieland…

Was today the blow off top for $Gold and $Silver? The results of this poll will cast a spell to make sure it happens.

Japan is in denial. If you think you can campaign on an end to "excessive" austerity with debt at 240% of GDP, markets will teach you a harsh lesson. Yesterday, even though Japan's JGB yields shot up (blue), the Yen fell (black). This is crisis territory. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-road-to-…