Major Bags

@FiddlesPicks No idea. I’ve tried projections and I’m just OK at them, so I’m def not putting the family fortune on it even if I have it at 100%. That said, the Wemby draft prop might be the closest thing to an l-word there is. So I wonder if there is a theoretical limit to the risk.

@MajorBags Do u think it’s 99.9? I’m asking to give you the right answer

Way too many people feel anything over X price isn’t worth betting. Be willing to bet anything where the expected hit rate exceeds the implied probability. My lifetime biggest risk staked bet was Wemby first overall pick -6000 on draft night with the spurs arena holding a watch party and selling Wembanyama jerseys already. Amazing bet. 1.6% ROI.

@FiddlesPicks Yeah I was genuinely asking. How much do you “responsibly” bet on a 99.9% expected hit? Expand the bankroll? Take out a second mortgage? Rip high-interest credit if it helps you get more down?

What probability would you give the bet of winning? On draft night, espn reporter on the ground in SA wearing a Wemby jersey w Wemby shaved into his head, wemby jerseys on sale with a San Antonio in arena watch party? It’s not 100%, but what is it? 99.what? 1 in how many scenarios does that not win because Wemby dies or has an insane criminal charge happen on draft day?

@DK_Assist Seriously how do you not have redundancies in place for this. Denying customers access to their funds because you wanted to save a few bucks is a huge red flag.

We are aware that some players are not receiving 2FA codes to their device. Our team is actively working to resolve this now, we'll provide any updates here on @DK_Assist! 🛠️

@FiddlesPicks Sure but if my house is struggling with hunger — or more precisely is causing others to struggle with hunger — I’d be sure to tackle that before widening the net. That said, kill the CoS dude all you want. I wouldn’t put him in the top 1k pernicious actors in the space but ymmv.

Just because someone else is doing wrong or worse doesn’t mean wrong elsewhere should be ignored if it’s considered less wrong. I did an action podcast last week the night before Cavs magic and explained the math of +ev parlays and why so many industry promoted parlays are bad. It should be a problem for me to call out one person if another is doing wrong too. All you can do is be a benefit to your local community, that’s the posts on my timeline, the pods I am on, etc. If I want to help people dealing with hunger issues it’s beneficial to volunteer at local food bank even though there are other areas of the world dealing with worse hunger issues.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Today’s “new formula” was instead of a 5 leg parlay with -900 alt lines, a 4 leg parlay with -700 alt lines. It’s cumulatively likely tens of thousands of dollars his followers are losing to Fanduel who he tags a link directly to tail. He has about 600,000 followers across platforms on Twitter/YT/Instagram. Let’s take a very conservative estimate and say only 300 people (.05% of followers- not even 1 tenth of 1 percent) per day tail the ladder challenge, and all of them start at the $10 he recommends. 300 * 10 =3,000 3000 * 13=39,000 That’s in the last two weeks (and I’d imagine it’s higher). His straight bets actually do well… he knows 4 leg alt lines aren’t good value, I promise, and he chooses to continue this method to the masses - likely because it drives bigger engagement than straight bets.

@FiddlesPicks Fair enough, they post way more 4 and 5 leggers (and garbage NFL ATTD plays) so I’d hope that’s the house that gets targeting for cleaning first.

@MajorBags i literally commented on an action network post yesterday that they shouldnt be promoting 10 leg parlays. I can comment on what i see and try and be positive.

@HPbasketball Nah, complaining is -EV. SGA would have 50 FTA against this Suns defense tonight with zero complaining.

Lol 22 FTA for Brown. Complaining helps I guess

@DrewRipsCards @FiddlesPicks Not sure how you got that impression but each ladder play is roughly +100. The challenge specifically is $10 doubled for 10 straight days to get to $10,000. Only way to do that is if you’re averaging even money everyday.

@MajorBags @FiddlesPicks He’d be down a fuckton of money as all of the ladder plays are -310 or worse and often -500 or worse. If he separated them out, he’d be down even more lmao.

How has the ladder challenge “still been profitable” if you’ve have never completed it? Even if you have multiple times reaching day 8, you’re then re risking the whole roll and original wager, so you are net negative even if you’re hitting 70% of individual bets. It’s quite literally impossible to make this claim unless you are doing bankroll gymnastics or have made it to 10k (which to my understanding you have not).

Lineup alert: Heat will start Mitchell, Gardner, Fontecchio, Adebayo, Ware on Wednesday.

@seantgreen Giants fan thinks Super Bowl dog is DOA, what a time to be alive.

Don't get in Kramer's CROSS HAIRS!

@jaredsmithbets @PSchrags It’s possible. Also possible that garbage white candidates magically got jobs this cycle. So no, merit was not the driver.

@PSchrags Peter, is it possible, and just hear me out on this, that maybe there just weren’t enough qualified minority coaches in this cycle? Not everything needs to be so black and white Maybe merit actually matters when hiring for jobs

HC situation is troubling, yes. It goes deeper. There will be 21 OC changes this year. How many of those hired will be minorities? Being an OC has proven to be the best path to becoming HC. Of the first 11 OC's to be hired this cycle, only Eric Bienemy is a person of color.

@FiddlesPicks Celts - Queta Interior defense + rebounding often falls off a cliff when he’s off the floor.

NBA BETTORS 🚨🚨 Name a ROLE PLAYER you feel has an outsized importance to their teams success, perhaps more than the betting market would indicate. Let's work together to hit all 30 teams I'll start: Cavs - Sam Merrill Lakers - Rui Hachimura Trailblazers- Donovan Clingan

@BillSimmons Refs:

WTF WAS THAT ROUGHING THE PASSER CALL?

@KramerCentric They’re obviously taking a shot at the endzone. How the f do they ever let them over the top? Comically unserious

MAX PAIN ☠️

@jamierkennedy @KylePorterNS No way I'm wearing long sleeves in July.

@KylePorterNS Ban tees.

What is your hottest golf take right now? Can be massive, minuscule or anything in between. Only rule: You have to kind of believe it but also be at least a little bit scared to say it out loud.

@iamrahstradamus Thats fine. Then don’t schedule an impossible start time.

They have to clear the area to get all the fans from the first game out before they can start the second game. They sold each game separately unlike summer league where they sell all day passes. That’s takes time. They also had NaS performing outside.

@iamrahstradamus QB version of hero ball. Puts his teammates in an impossible position and will eventually put himself in a hospital.

Dart isn’t going to have a long career at all.

@KramerCentric Parlay serial killer eyes

1H parlay ☠️