Selma Malmberg

In this paper, we evaluate the French tariff shield that capped energy prices for households during the 2021-2023 energy crisis. We quantify its macroeconomic and redistributive effects and show it supported purchasing power and reduced inequality, while increasing indebtedness.

This is the second chapter of my PhD thesis, and my first published paper!

Our paper « The Macroeconomic and Redistributive Effects of the French Tariff Shield », coauthored with @FrancoisLangot, @FabienTripier and J-O Hairault, has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Political Economy – Macroeconomics. journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/74…

There is never much to love about a budget that proposes to substantially reduce the deficit. But one must admit that the Bayrou budget has taken up the challenge. It faces the issue, and proposes measures which, if they were to pass, may add up, if not to the 43 billion advertised, but to a number not too far from it. I have four early reactions. The focus of the discussion is on the 43 billion. Eventually however, stabilisation of the debt requires an adjustment of the order of 150 billion euros. It must be done; the question is how fast to do it. For political and economic reasons, I would have chosen a smaller number for 2026, of the order of 30 billion, and a credible adjustment over 5 years rather than 4. Maybe this is a tactical choice and bargaining will lead to a smaller number. Polls suggest strong general support for deficit reduction, but (perhaps not surprisingly) little enthusiasm for specific measures… This suggests a fall discussion of the budget under “pay for” rules: Any proposed alternative measure should come with other measures which offset the effect on the budget. It has been done elsewhere. It does not work perfectly, but it helps. The measures in this budget are a mix of mechanical adjustments and targeted measures. From an economic viewpoint, mechanical adjustments are never best; from a political viewpoint, it is precisely their mechanical aspect, and at least the appearance of fairness, which makes them needed. Under duress, they do the job, while better measures are examined and implemented. This budget is the first installment of a many-year adjustment. Many of the measures can be improved, and work should start on it now, so they can be improved in future years. Take the proposed removal of two jours feries. It is well documented that the shortfall in hours worked is due to the low employment rate of two specific groups, the young and the old. The elimination of two jours feries is not the right solution. Reforms to increase these two specific employment rates are. They are complex, they may take time, but they, and others, are needed if the full budget adjustment is to be successful.

📢 La Note 2025-07 de @iMIP_institute est en ligne ! 🔗 i-mip.eu/publications/r… Coécrite par des membres du Cepremap : @FrancoisLangot, @jocmaillard, @MalmbergSelma, @FabienTripier et J.-O. Hairault. 👇 Résumé en quelques points clés :

📢 Le Cepremap est heureux d’annoncer la parution de l’e-book de l’@iMIP_institute ➡️ i-mip.eu/wp-content/upl… Plusieurs de nos chercheurs y ont contribué, autour du thème : les choix budgétaires de la France pour 2026. Voici un aperçu des analyses 👇

The 19th Dynare Conference was held on June 5-6 in Helsinki, organized by @BankofFinland with support from DSGE-net. Keynote speakers were @IacoIacoviel and @LeonardoMelosi. Thanks to @BankofFinland and to all participants for this memorable occasion for scientific exchange.

👏 Congratulations also to @MalmbergSelma (@CEPREMAP, @iMIP_institute), PSE master’s alumni, who received the Special Prize.

🏆 Congratulations to Arthur Heim (DSER, @cnaf_actus), PSE master’s and doctoral alumni, for the 2025 Best dissertation award ex aequo (@Courdescomptes). 👇 parisschoolofeconomics.eu/en/news/arthur…

❌ La Cour des comptes sonne le tocsin sur le déficit de la Sécurité sociale ➡️ trib.al/tmkxfEa 💶 Encore proche de 11 milliards d'euros en 2023, le « trou de la Sécu » devrait passer à près de 22 milliards à la fin de cette année.

Un grand merci à mes directeurs de thèse, @FrancoisLangot et Pablo Winant, pour leur supervision et leurs précieux conseils tout au long de ces années ! Félicitations également aux lauréats du Prix de thèse 2025, Arthur Heim et Nathan Rivet !

Heureuse et honorée de recevoir le prix spécial de la @Courdescomptes pour ma thèse « Grandes récessions, inégalités économiques et efficacité des politiques macroéconomiques», soutenue il y a six mois à @LeMansUniv et financée par le @CEPREMAP.

Many policies aimed at easing pressure in rental markets have been treating the symptoms of the problem rather than the cause. And they have ended up making things worse for the people they were meant to help econ.st/428sXiz

We invite submissions of theoretical, empirical, and quantitative research on macroeconomic topics. We are particularly interested in contributions that explore heterogeneity and non-linearities in quantitative macroeconomic models. Read more: suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-to… @DynareTeam

On 10-11 Feb , @banquedefrance hosted a conference to honour M. Juillard’s contributions to macroecon modeling & computational economics & 30 years of @DynareTeam CEPR's MEF programme presented a plaque recognizing his impact on researchers worldwide 🔗 cepr.org/about/news/cel…

Young economics researchers--especially PhD students in Europe preparing for next year's job market--should apply for the Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics in Vigo, Spain, 8-10 July 2025. Submission deadline is 10 April. workshop.webs.uvigo.es/index.html

Celebrating Michel Juillard!

je l'ai deja dit, mais il semble qu'il faille le repeter... Un impot "exceptionel" n'est d'aucune utilite si le probleme est un deficit primaire a moyen terme. Ca ne change rien au probleme a moyen terme, et ca envoie le signal que le gouvernement n'est pas serieux.

📣 PhD students and Juniors working on Macroeconomics: Don’t miss the chance to present your work and get feedbacks at the 2025 T2M Conference and at the Poster session (that I co-organise with C.Crofils)! 📆 Date: May 22-23 📍location: CREST t2m.network/submit/

XXVIII Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics sponsored by Universidade de Vigo @uvigo and LAEF-UCSB is a great opportunity for young scholars to receive intense feedback on their research. Vigo, Spain, July 8-10. Submit paper by April 10. H/T:@nickpretnar workshop.webs.uvigo.es