Adeptus Astartes

@Abomination81 It's easy to say go ahead, I haven't found a strategy for 15-minute markets to keep trading active yet.

5m Crypto Strategies are why you are losing money. 1 hour crypto markets were amazing when released. Quick wins, quick resets. Loved by all. Then 15m came out. 4x the fun, 4x the pnl. EVEN BETTER. So whats better than 15m?? 5m! But, this is where the line was crossed for most people. The other windows, down to 15m were structurally different. All had enough time for signals to be generated and followed. 5m, doesn't give you that luxury. Think of a stock chart, any chart. You can see it, ups and downs. Even sideways movements are just smaller ups and downs. In a bull market, those ups are bigger than the downs. In a bear, the downs bigger than the ups. In 1 hour, or 15m. Those ups and downs trend in the correct direction based on the opening signal and market movement. There is enough time for the small downs to be eaten by the big ups in a bull market for example. But 5m is different. You can have a strong UP trend happening in crypto, but as the price jumps.. traders take profits, which makes it reverse slightly, then it heads right back up. 5m is so short, you can be caught on any single part of that up,down,up movement. So the up trend itself is meaningless. That leaves a few strategies that work. Heavy reversion, structural bets, ladder bots etc. These are complicated, advanced and not very high w/r overall. The moral of this story is.... if you're losing money, and you're in 5m markets. Quit and go back to 15m

@direkturcrypto А вот ты скинул базовый код, ты используешь все стратегии с этого репозитория? Или какую-то одну?

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@kangtahee Ireland

@MarcusAkvilla I have the same question. Were you able to solve it? Would really appreciate any tips.

Experienced polymarket users, please explain which country to choose for the VPS? How to achieve the speed of order execution. Maybe there are some special features? #polymarket #bot #betting #algotraiding

@Abomination81 can you share the data for the backtest? Otherwise, it's hard to find normal data.

Lets Make a Profitable Bot-- Together. Thought this might be interesting/fun. I can take your suggestions, tune them with you and show you how to make a bot profitable. There are some rules. 1. If we share this with everyone, liquidity will be an issue. So lets stick to 15m Bitcoin for ease and the fact it will work for more people. 2. I will pump this through my back tester to tweak. So I have recorded 18 months of every moment of PolyMarket BTC 15m. In exhaustive testing its within 5% accuracy over time. 3. One suggestion per person. 4. I will try and guide the conversation, but really want suggestions. I want to show you guys how easy it really is. 5. No guarantee this will make money. While the back tester is insanely accurate. We could literally be in a weird regime right now (which we are, shits all sideways), 500 people could start trading this exact thing instantly. All kinds of things can happen. So while it "should" work. Its more about learning how to build a profitable bot. So questions. 1. When do we enter. Pre-window, mid (when), after? 2. How do we decide which direction to bet, up, down, both? 3. Any pricing logic? 4. What signals do we use, what filters? 5. Any betting strategies? 6. Any stop losses or panic stops? LFG!

@appledog_xyz Did you mean milliseconds?

@MarcusAkvilla 10 to 20 second

Everyone is maker now , who gonna be Taker then ?

@Abomination81 Can you tell me how to close a position quickly if the price has gone the wrong way? What type of order should be used and what parameters should be specified?

Lets fix your BOT! You have problems, lets work on it. To do it I need the following. What market and time youre on, and the basic outline of what youre doing. With what problems you have! Lets get those things printing! #polymarket

@HopeAlpha_ @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket and for takers, the commission was also adjuste? otherwise it was not 1.8%, but more

Polymarket clarified the fee confusion, here’s what actually happened : The issue was how fees were being calculated. Fees were using dollar volume instead of shares, which distorted the fee curve. 👉 especially in some markets, fees looked much higher than expected That’s what people were noticing. Now it’s fixed: • fee calculation aligned properly (share-based) • distorted curves removed • extra exponent has been removed → fees are now back to normal Now the most important part: You only pay fees if you take liquidity → market buy / instant execution If you place a limit order and it gets filled: • you don’t pay fees • you earn a rebate from the taker So if your orders are getting filled, you’re basically trading for free + getting paid If you want full details, check docs: 👉docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees

@hamza_xau MC

If there is a Holy Grail, this is it! Comment “MC” if you want access! 👇

@polybacktest Do you have all the strategies like flipping a coin

We tested "follow the Binance whales" on Polymarket BTC 5-minute markets. 2,194 markets. Real Binance taker flow data. Second-by-second aggressive buy and sell volume. The strategy: when aggressive buyers dominate sellers on Binance, bet UP on the next 5-minute market. The bigger the imbalance, the stronger the signal. 60 seconds before market open. Escalating buy/sell imbalance: Buys = sells: 49.4% win rate Buys 3x sells: 49.8% Buys 5x sells: 48.7% Buys 8x sells: 46.4% Buys 12x sells: 43.8% Buys 17x sells: 42.3% Read that again. The more the whales pile in, the worse the signal gets. At 5-minute lookback it's even clearer: Buy/sell ratio 3x+: 43.2% win rate Buy/sell ratio 5x+: 43.3% Below coin flip. Consistently. Why? Because Binance taker flow tells you what already happened, not what's about to happen. When buys dominate for 60 seconds, BTC already moved up. The 5-minute market starts with that move priced in. What comes next is more likely mean reversion than continuation. The strongest whale signal we found: Buys outweighing sells 17 to 1 in the last minute won 42% of the time. You'd make more money flipping a coin or inversing this strategy. The only window where flow shows any edge: the last 10 seconds. Buy/sell imbalance >80%: 53.2% win rate. But the token price is already at $0.50 and the edge is $0.99 per $10 trade. That's not whale following. That's noise. Edges do exist, you can hunt for them yourself with sub second historical data using polybacktest.

@fabbri_anthony @Abombination81 Isn't NY banned by geo-block?

@MarcusAkvilla @Abombination81 My VPS is in Toronto (DigitalOcean), Polymarket servers are in New York. That's about 20-30ms latency. Pretty good for FAK orders — I get 100% fill rate at $0.97. If I ever needed to optimize further I'd move to a NYC VPS for ~5ms, but no need so far.

Looking to start a discord group with other advanced bot makers. We can share, improve and collaborate on bots that don't have liquidity limiting issues. I also have a large, audacious plan to link all the prediction markets and what sports books we can, together for a multi market arb monstrosity. If you're making money on more than one bot, and are interested, pm me please.

@kreoapp and what is the execution time for transactions if you create a bot?

Make your own bot. 🤖 Input trading strategies, and let Kreo trade for you 24/7! Profit on the go with Auto Trade. ⚡

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade You're constantly showing me what makes it bigger. your deposit, but you still haven't answered how? Tell us about the platform, at least how to use it, if that's the case.

I just passed $13,000 profit on my main Polymarket account Crazy money to be made on this website Aiming for $20,000 next!

@Abombination81 The correction is 32ms, I forgot to add the network to the calculation before the clob

@Abombination81 Do I understand correctly that we need to speed up the process of sending our order to the polymarket? Everything that happens after he gets there doesn't matter. I eventually managed to reduce it to 5ms.

@fabbri_anthony @Abombination81 The processing takes place already on the side of the polymarket, what does the distance of your server to the polymarket have to do with it

@MarcusAkvilla @Abombination81 "No intentional delay. FAK orders, signed locally, sent via CLOB API. Round-trip latency depends on server location — mine is ~100ms. Fill is instant or cancel (FAK)."

@fabbri_anthony @Abombination81 when you send a signed order and receive a response

@MarcusAkvilla @Abombination81 I don't understand your request; are you talking about the purchase order?

@fabbri_anthony @Abombination81 What is your post order delay?

@Abombination81 I solved my problem by analyzing bots with your tool. I found the solution; my bot has a 100% win rate and trades approximately 200 times per 24 hours. Your tool really helped me, my friend.

@kont1435 me