Marcus Padley

This isn't about petrol prices. It's about inflation, rates and the market going down. youtube.com/watch?v=7Lqmmh…

@JohnWickPencil Too early to call, but watching the ATEC ETF closely.

@MarcusPadley wats ur opinion on which ASX tech stocks will survive or die?

We continue to watch software stocks sell off and wonder if that sector has a sentiment issue or is in terminal decline. The answer is that surviving AI is a stock-by-stock debate, in which case any ETF covering software stocks or tech is going to include winners and losers. We need an ETF that includes "software stocks that will survive the AI threat" – an ETF that includes only the winners. We don't have one yet. $MSFT has become the poster child of the SaaSpocalypse – underperforming the other Big Tech stocks.

@Phildecynic More so here. AI disruption is likely to create bigger gaps between winners and losers.

@MarcusPadley Isn’t that the case with All ETFs.

NASDAQ futures popped and dropped on the 10-day pause. The oil price did the opposite – dropped and popped – rather than a reprieve. It's (1) another 10 days without progress on the Strait of Hormuz, (2) an admission that peace talks are going nowhere, and (3) seen as maybe another delaying tactic by the US as they prep for "boots on ground". The reality is probably that Trump doesn't want to hit power plants because he knows the cost of oil at $130+ would be devastating economically and politically. It's a threat. He's bluffing.

Interesting chart from Bloomberg – where Australia gets its fuel from. South Korea the largest supplier and has already started limiting exports and rationing fuel. It is a major player in oil refining, home to three of the top ten largest refineries in the world, with total capacity around 3.1m barrels per day, yet produces close to zero itself. Is the 8th largest oil consumer globally, with oil accounting for a third of power used in its semiconductor industry.

A volatile session in the US as investors weigh geopolitics, yields and economic risks. @MarcusPadley outlines the key moves on @ausbiztv. ausbiz.com.au/media/the-open…

Not all is roses, even if the war ends tomorrow. The private credit collapse, exacerbated by the consequences of war and a higher oil price, continues to unfold. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Feels like a trading market, not an investing one. How to approach it – live tomorrow. marcustoday.com.au/investing-vola…

@jimcramer Very unconvincing technically. The 90-day pause saw an 11% bounce. This is not that.

This had to be one of THE most hated rallies i have ever seen. Really relentless bearishness in all sectors...

The MAG7 was up last night, but like everything else, the initial enthusiasm didn't follow through, and it closed well below the high. The market is not convinced this is over, despite Trump wanting it to be over. The Iranian denials undermine the integrity of Trump's messaging.

Markets can start to feel more like a casino than investing. Next week I'm doing a webinar on how to approach volatility, risk and opportunity. Join here: marcustoday.com.au/investing-vola…

More detail in @Marcus_Today marcustoday.com.au/trial-sign-up/

Opportunity abounds. Here are charts of the ETFs we are watching "come the moment". The main game is to get the market right – you don't need to be too clever or cute. The debate we can't answer is whether we get a meaningful pivot in sentiment or a short-lived relief rally. Current thinking is we will buy when sentiment turns, but treat it as a trade rather than a long-term investment. We'll wait for the moment.

The best and worst performers since the war broke out. Energy leading. Gold and resources under pressure. @Marcus_Today

The oil price is spiking on an escalation in the war overnight as Iran hits Qatar and the biggest LNG plant in the world. Iran has also said it will not let their enemies use the Strait of Hormuz. The equity markets are going nowhere until the oil price peaks. It is up from $100 to $110 overnight, with reignited fears of $150.

@PeterMallouk Nothing wrong with the long term, but this is the sort of statistic the industry uses to keep clients invested.

The stock market is the opposite of a casino. The longer you play, the higher the odds you win.

Volatility doesn't just move prices – it changes behaviour. @MarcusPadley is running a live session on how we think about markets when conditions become unpredictable. Register here: marcustoday.com.au/investing-vola…

ATEC – False start. Glad we didn't get sucked in. Not a buy yet.

The 'technology company layoff' narrative (kicked off by $WTC.AX and $XYZ.AX) has potential to be a major catalyst in the AI ROI debate. If AI isn't bringing in the money quick enough, the other side of the ledger needs to be reduced. Remember that before Iran, AI disruption/spending concerns were keeping the Nasdaq in its sideways trading range. We're watching FANG, SEMI and NDQ every day. All three remain either in downtrend or sideways trend.