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Svitlana
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Svitlana
@MargotPemberley
Lively and bouncy, strange and wonderful
Katılım Nisan 2016
14 Takip Edilen14 Takipçiler

@BullTheoryio Don't worry, this idiot is definitely just bragging
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The new ceasefire framework that reached the US and Iran overnight will not survive Tuesday. Every structural piece of it breaks on contact with the ground truth.
The Islamabad Accord does not actually reopen Hormuz. Mediators told Axios a full reopening of the Strait is not on the table until the final deal is inked, 15-20 days out.
Reuters reported "immediate ceasefire and Hormuz reopening" as the phase-one terms. Those two facts cannot both be true.
Trump's entire deadline posture assumes the Strait opens immediately. Without that, he has nothing to sell on Tuesday and no reason to accept the accord in the first place.
The two sides are not negotiating the same war. The US wants Iran to weaken its ballistic missile program and end nuclear enrichment.
Iran wants reparations, US base closures, full sanctions relief, and a legal guarantee against future US-Israeli attacks.
There is no version of this deal both sides can sign.
Iran does not trust paper. Iranian officials told mediators they will not be "caught in a Gaza or Lebanon situation where there is a ceasefire on paper, but the US and Israel can attack again whenever they want to," per Axios.
The accord offers no enforcement mechanism. None can be built in 48 hours. Iran is being asked to accept what it has publicly said it will not accept.
The US has its own reason to sign paper it cannot enforce, and the F-15 rescue is where that reason shows. The operation set up a forward arming and refueling point deep inside Iran, the kind of base built for sustained ground operations.
The mission was flown by 160th SOAR Night Stalkers, the same tier-one regiment that ran the Bin Laden raid and the 1980 Iran hostage rescue attempt.
Hundreds of special operations personnel were involved. Dozens of aircraft. Seven hours over Iran for the first rescue alone. Two MC-130Js and four MH-6 Little Birds were destroyed on the ground to prevent capture.
Fortune wrote that FARPs would likely come into play again for "a potential operation to retrieve Iran's highly enriched uranium."
The most valuable thing to seize inside Iran right now is the 60% enriched uranium stockpile. If the weekend operation was a failed attempt, the accord is landing on top of a failed US ground operation. That would explain the urgency on the US side.
Israel is still killing Iranian leadership during the talks. The IRGC intelligence chief was assassinated this morning. Katz vowed to hunt Iran's leaders "one by one."
Iran threatened to destroy OpenAI's Stargate data center in Dubai. Bushehr was struck for the fourth time on April 4.
The accord exists because both sides need the paper trail before Tuesday. Neither side wants to sign it.
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@cryptorover The value of cryptocurrencies is about to change drastically again
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@TedPillows I believe it will be even more valuable ten years from now
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@Polymarket My God, he's crazy! This is going to be a disaster!
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@cryptorover The moment the Federal Reserve's 14 computers are activated, the dollar depreciates at an accelerated pace. This is why we need 'digital gold' like Bitcoin—with a fixed supply and unlimited trust—to hedge against the rampant printing of fiat currency
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@WatcherGuru With the four-year cycle over, there is definitely still unlimited room for progress in the future
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@Barchart Wow, this is explosive news! The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds surged to 2.39%, a 30-year high, instantly sending market sentiment soaring This could indicate rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike, and global bond markets should be wary of a chain reaction
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BREAKING: Iran has officially told mediators it is not willing to meet US officials in Pakistan in the coming days and the US demands are "unacceptable," per WSJ.
Details include:
1. The current round of efforts to reach a cease-fire has reached a "dead end," mediators said
2. Turkey and Egypt are still pushing to find a way forward and are considering new venues for the talks
3. Potential new venues for talks include Doha or Istanbul
4. Mediators are attempting to come up with "fresh proposals" to overcome the deadlock
US markets are closed for the 3-day weekend.
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