
Today I listened to a Democratic pollster admonish the crowd not to put too much credence in prediction markets for political results. She said we needed to listen to the experts polling people each day and claimed prediction markets are controlled by young men with too much money.
About five minutes later, she was asked for her predictions for the US House and Senate elections this November. Her response: a 95% chance Democrats take the House and a 45% chance they take the Senate.
I’m sorry, but her predictions are so far out of alignment with professional pollsters that she is clearly not sharing survey responses but pushing her political desires. No wonder she told everyone to ignore prediction markets—if she can discredit them, maybe CNN will put her on air to publish her partisan agenda masquerading as polls.
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