Mark Spitzer

@WeatherProf Since the Oceanic Nino Index.(ONI) wasn't developed until 1950, and is the industry-accepted benchmark for determining the strength of El Ninos, how can the statistics from the El Nino of 1877 be regarded as reliable in comparing that year's event with those since 1950?

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? That’s not hype, it’s the actual median forecast right now for the developing event later this year. It could rival — or even surpass — the legendary 1877 El Niño, the strongest on record, which was linked to widespread drought, monsoon failure, and global food crises in parts of Asia, Africa, and South America. But what does that mean today? It means a tremendous amount of excess ocean heat being released into the atmosphere - energy that can rearrange weather patterns around the world. That typically leads to: 🌧️ Increased flood risk in some regions 🔥 More intense/ prolonged heatwaves, drought and fires 🌪️ A shift in severe storm tracks 🌀 And often a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, but boosted in the East Pacific. Since it’s so huge, when the Pacific talks, the atmosphere listens! But this isn’t 1877… forecasting, infrastructure, and global awareness are far better today. We’ll be better prepared. Now transparency on the science: the 1877 3-month Nino 3.4 ocean temp anomaly maxed out at +2.7°C. The latest median forecast for all ensembles in late 2026 is +2.75°C in the Nino 3.4 region. So, it may be stronger. Here’s the caveat: that region is now approx .75 - 1°C warmer than it was in 1855, so some of the heat building up there is on top of a baseline which is already warmer today. So in absolutes… this will probably rival 1877, but relatively speaking due to global warming, the event will likely fall short and thus its global impacts may not rise to that level. That’s why we now have the RONI (index) which accounts for our new warmed World. (Pictured here is the October NMME with a region of +3-4°C over the East Tropical Pacific) Will certainly be interesting to watch from a scientific perspective.

@dfenton @RockyMtnInst @AmoryLovins Nuclear energy is worse for the climate? The data says otherwise.

@RockyMtnInst founder @AmoryLovins says we can scale far more renewable energy much faster and cheaper than nuclear. And the sun always shines — in a battery. Listen to the full fentonforecast.com interview go.fentonforecast.com/amorylovinsapp… #nuclear #climate

@funder I'm not so sure these innocent children who this perverted president who couldn't keep his hands off would agree.

Who else agrees that Biden was BY FAR WITHOUT A DOUBT a better president than Trump could EVER be? #NoIllegalFloridaMaps

@WeatherProf The red in this animated map is highly exaggerated when compared to NOAA's actual SST anomaly map. Also, SST records only started to be recorded in the early 1980s, so to call it a record is measuring it against a very small period of time.

@MarkSpitzer0484 Every area in “red” is record warm.

Huge Pacific Heatwave - larger than North America - with record heat spanning 6,000 miles across, peaking in the East Pacific. The highest anomalies are near the Galápagos Islands, a clear sign a mighty El Niño is beginning. This excess heat infused in the climate system throws everything off-kilter globally, making heatwaves more extreme, floods more intense, but also subduing Atlantic hurricane season. #elnino #heatwave #pacific

@ChrisDJackson @JoeBiden Oh yeh. Just a true pedophile

Who else misses the boring, no-drama days of @JoeBiden? No chaos. No circus. No daily embarrassment. Just quiet competence from a president who actually knew how to do the job.

@AZ_Brittney There are never any comedians on his show either, including the host himself.

Jimmy Kimmel says there will be no comedians at the White House Correspondents Dinner tonight. "Our president is a delicate snowflake with the thinnest fat skin of any human being ever." Drop a 👍 and Repost if you agree with Jimmy!

@TrumpsHurricane I see that as a net gain for men.

This Liberal woman is on a ‘Sex Strike’ until Trump is out of office. What is your response to her ??

What's being left out of this analysis, either intentionally or unintentionally, is that the Colorado River System, which includes Lake Powell, serves over 40 million people in the southwest. That's a 270% increase from 1980 when it served 15 million people in the southwest. So of course levels will be much lower as time goes on as the amount of water flowing into the lake can't keep up with the demand of water being used. To suggest this is a deviation due to drought or climate change would be overlooking the fact that this an irreversible trend from an exponentially increasing demand for water as the population continues to increase across the Southwest.

Talk about a deviation. Lake Powell 2026 on bottom.

@ryankatzrosene As serious and dramatic as this sounds, 1.7M acres of wildland fire burn area pales in comparison to the 18-25 million acres that burned annually in the west alone. But we are to believe this is broaching upon some records.

As of today, wildland fire burn area in the US is at 1,777,267 Acres. That's more than the annual total of some years (1998, 1984, 1983). Seems possible that 2026 could be a record high year. [Note for those who plan to respond with an old graph showing how burn area was higher over a Century ago, please note the NIFC warns that data prior to 1983 is not comparable to present day record]

I wish climate alarmists would all get on the same page instead of posting their own version of what they "speculate" ' is going on. Another study, published by NOAA, says the temperatures are the warmest in 11,300 years not 120,000 as is being hyped here. climate.gov/news-features/…

It’s Earth Day 🌎 If we are being realistic and honest - which really is the least we can do - it’s very likely warmer today than anytime in the last 120,000 years. And, the global warming rate the past century - and especially the last 30 years - is “exponentially” faster than when we emerge out of ice ages - the fastest natural warming rate we know. So, #ShowYourStripes to show your support for your home 🌎 You can choose global, national, regional, or local here: showyourstripes.info Thanks to @ed_hawkins for these vital visuals!

@BrittanyinTexas But this Harvard graduate was unable to answer the question, "what is a woman" during her Senate confirmation hearings, because in her own words, "I can't answer that because I'm not a biologist".

Trump just called Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson “low IQ.” Let’s be clear: She graduated magna cum laude from Harvard & earned a law degree. She’s one of the most qualified legal minds in the country. Trump? He insults accomplished Black women because he can’t match them.

NEW POLL: 75% of Americans say Pete Hegseth should be removed from office. Are you one of them? Yes. No.

@WeatherProf The research leaves out (either intentionally or unintentionally) that hurricanes go through natural cycles of activity and intensity that can last for decades, and would have no bearing on climate change.

Nice write up by Dr Jeff Masters in the thread under the image. In a nutshell the propensity of evidence shows that the strongest of hurricanes (typhoons/ cyclones) are becoming stronger and the proportion of hurricanes reaching cat 4 and cat 5 are increasing. The graphic below is global (not just the Atlantic) so it is less subject to natural variability. Still the record is admittedly not very long due to lack of good data before 1982.

@WeatherProf Monster? No obvious hyperbole here!

Monster subsurface heat bubble and associated “downwelling Kelvin wave” is traversing the deep Pacific, transporting anomalously warm water from the West Pacific Warm Pool towards the East Equatorial Pacific, and emerging toward to surface. This mechanism should provide the boost to jump start our El Niño which is defined by surface warming in the eastern half of the deep tropical Pacific. All signs are pointing to a top tier El Niño episode this summer/ fall/ winter - emitting pent up ocean heat - throwing Worldwide weather patterns into overdrive! In ENSO terms, a downwelling Kelvin wave often happens after westerly wind bursts in the western or central Pacific. The wave carries warm water eastward below the surface, deepens the thermocline in the east, reduces cold-water upwelling (ie. near the Galapagos), and can help favor El Niño development. Thanks to CyclonicWx for the great map visual. #elnino

Record-breaking heat? Looks like all this exaggerated hype never happened. Only Gainesville, Jacksonville, and Lakeland hit 90 degrees, and only Gainesville broke a record, reaching 91 on Friday, breaking the previous record of 90. As it turned out, NOAA'S local meteorologists in each city were far more accurate. Peak temperatures during this so-called "heatwave": Tallahassee. 88 Gainesville. 91 Jacksonville. 91 Daytona. 86 Crystal River. 84 Tampa. 86 Sarasota. 86 Lakeland. 90 Orlando. 88 Vero Beach. 82 Wellington. 84 (West Palm Beach) Miami 86 Fort Myers. 89 Naples. 86

The dog days of summer?! Heat will build each day this week, with peak heat on Saturday. Many cities west-central will tie or break daily records! Humidity will also increase, but it won’t be overly muggy. #florida #heatwave

@WeatherProf Not sure how 99 was derived as Jacksonville's peak April temperature, but that's incorrect. It's 95. Not a huge difference but we depend on accuracy.

The heatwave will peak today with multiple record highs expected… Sure it’s hot, but it’s not “unprecedented” heat for this time of year. These are the monthly April high temperature records for select cities all around #Florida. In many cases we’ll fall short by a few to several degrees. #heatwave

In fact, the last paragraph of this post says March 2026, the first month of the meteorological spring, was the THIRD worst in history. And with April being only half over, the meteorological spring still has 6 weeks to go. So with spring only half way over, how can anyone objectively conclude this spring is the worst drought in history?

Just how bad is this spring’s drought?? The worst in US History, going all the way back to the 1890s, even worse than Dust Bowl springs. And #Florida is among the worst in the nation. ~80% of the US is in #drought, with 40% in severe or greater. The dryness is due partially to lack of rain, but also the warmest year on record so far for much of the nation. This further evaporates the soil moisture, pushing us deeper into drought. Copious rain 🌧️ is what’s needed to stave off a rough fire 🔥 season! As @US_Stormwatch mentioned, there was only one instance where the drought was worse - it was summer of 1934, near peak of the Dust Bowl. (Note: there are two different drought indices displayed. Top is US Drought Monitor. Bottom is Palmer Drought Severity Index)

@WeatherProf Worst spring drought in history? Where is the data to back up this claim? According to NASA studies, the worst spring drought to affect the US actually occurred in 1934.

@CliffW08950229 You just revealed how you truly feel about the brave men and women in the military. Did you ride the little school bus when you were a kid?