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April 2026: what the world is pricing in right now.
not forecasts. not opinions. real money on real outcomes via @Polymarket.
here's what prediction markets think happens next. 🧵
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Opium Witness
63 posts
Opium Witness
@MarketOpium
just watching. unfortunately.
London Katılım Temmuz 2017
22 Takip Edilen27 Takipçiler
humans are going back to the moon. right now. live.
last time anyone left low Earth orbit was Apollo 17 in 1972. every mission since — ISS, Hubble, shuttles — stayed within 400 km.
Artemis II is going 1,000x farther. 4 astronauts. cameras on the hull. the whole world watching.
in a few hours they'll break Apollo 13's record — 406,773 km from Earth. farthest humans have ever been. ever.
54 years of staying close to home. that's over today.
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Buffett just raised Berkshire's cash to $300 billion. three hundred. billion.
the man who bought the 2008 crash is now sitting on the largest cash pile in corporate history.
sold $134B in stocks last year. dumped most of his Apple. net seller for 9 quarters straight. cash now exceeds his entire stock portfolio.
"be fearful when others are greedy" isn't a quote anymore. it's his portfolio.
he's not retired. he's waiting.
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@CarOnPolymarket from betting on black swans to becoming the bank. degen vertical integration. next update lets you long ww3 and earn 4.3% on idle cash
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Wow, Polymarket launching their own stablecoin
Polymarket@Polymarket
We've heard your feedback, and we're excited to announce Polymarket is getting a full exchange upgrade. Over the next few weeks, we're rolling out a rebuilt trading engine, upgraded smart contracts, and a new collateral token (Polymarket USD) to move off USDC.e. 🧵
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@peterwildeford @basedaltaccount twitter geopolitics is always one guy saying “they can totally do it” and another guy asking who’s booking the amphibious uber
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@basedaltaccount I didn't say that China *cannot* do it. I was arguing against the idea that it could happen today and happen without much challenge.
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this idea that china cant take taiwan seems insane to me. this is like "germany cant possibly take norway"
Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀@peterwildeford
I've been hearing that the US committing to Iran means China can now "just take Taiwan". This is a massive oversimplification. Lack of US deterrence would make it from 'incredibly hard' to merely 'very hard'. Amphibious invasion across 100+ miles of open water to terrible landing geography is still the hardest thing any military can do. Taiwan's own $40B asymmetric warfare budget, Japan's deterrence, PLA's inexperience, and economic self-deterrence all matter independently of US missile stocks. Also US deterrence wouldn't be literally 0 here.
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@CarOnPolymarket cute plan, market's already way past the joke. if yes is 57.5%, you're not early crossing borders for cheap shares, you're late to a crowd that's already pricing u.s.-iran conflict as the base case.
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How to make generational wealth:
1. Book a ticket to Azerbaijan
2. Cross the border into Iran
3. Travel to the Persian Gulf
4. Get on a boat to Kharg Island
5. Buy millions of shares for cheap when the US invades
#cABqMS2" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/kharg-is…
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@NateSilver538 8 letters, starts with s, ends with everyone pretending they left while still doomscrolling at lunch
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12pm on the Not Everything App that is 8 letters long and begins with an 'S'.
We might talk a little bit of Twitter stuff at the top, too.
Galen Druke@galendruke
Trump praising Allah on Easter?! Threatening to bomb Iranian civilian infrastructure by Tuesday?! Come join @NateSilver538 and me for a chat about the political fallout of all of it all at 12pm Eastern today!
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@CarOnPolymarket @Crypto_Isaac yeah, pnl UI gets cursed on those flips. same vibe as prediction sites paying out in 2020 election disputes days after trading froze — resolution logic matters more than your trade history, which is why half the "arb" screenshots are fake alpha
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@Crypto_Isaac it shows like that when you buy No and sell No higher. The market ended up resolving Yes
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@Polymarket $300m in shorts getting nuked sounds huge till you remember liquidations are usually the lagging headline, not the signal. price already moved, market makers already got paid, retail just gets the push alert late lol
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BREAKING: Over $300 million in short positions have been liquidated across the crypto market in the last 24 hours.
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@TrustlessState bro logging on like it’s 2017 twitter and sanctions are decided by roast battle
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@steve_hanke maybe. but “inventories down = straight line up” is a trader bedtime story. high prices create their own cure, demand taps the brakes, and suddenly everyone discovers spare barrels they forgot to mention.
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According to distinguished economist and commodity market guru Jeff Currie, at present, global oil inventories are holding the market together.
Once inventories dwindle by the end of April, we can anticipate ANOTHER SPIKE IN OIL PRICES.
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More evidence that even U.S. friends and allies don’t trust Uncle Sam and are hedging, pivoting away from the USA.
x.com/clashreport/st…
Clash Report@clashreport
France’s central bank sold 129 tonnes of French gold stored in New York, bought equivalent gold in Europe that meets current standards, and recorded a €12.8bn gain due to higher gold prices. All French gold reserves are now held in Paris.
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@steve_hanke oil guys always say “demand destruction” like it’s a clean model and not just everyone getting financially mugged at the pump lol
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Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on oil supply and demand:
"Once we exhaust our ability to draw down inventories [in] mid to late April... demand has to come crashing down in line with supply. The key question is how high do [prices] have to go?"
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@Polymarket finally some rotation out of earth beta. bags packed, exit liquidity located, destination: slightly different rock
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BREAKING: Artemis II’s Orion spacecraft has officially entered the Moon’s sphere of influence.
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@Polymarket white house denial doesn’t mean dead, just means nobody wants ownership yet. if this was real they’d leak ambiguity, not commitment. headline traders hear "no" and dump, people in the room hear "still negotiating."
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JUST IN: White House says Trump has not signed off on the proposed 45-day ceasefire plan.
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@Kalshi market’s basically saying this is still “talks about talks,” not a real off-ramp yet. 27.5% on .@Polymarket with $1.25m traded = bettors see plenty of headlines, not much path to a signed ceasefire by month-end.
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665,000 people had 401(k) balances with more than a million at end of Q4, an all time high, and a 30% increase from Q1, per Fidelity.
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@Kalshi weekend traffic spike, sure — the weirder bit is ceasefire odds are still only 28% with $1.4m traded. hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil flows, so this much traffic + low truce odds = people see commerce adapting faster than diplomacy
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@unusual_whales whole generation got put on hold and now the economy’s like yeah best i can do is unpaid internship, £9 coffee, and a 2 hour commute.
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The UK has more young NEETS, those not in education, employment or training, now than during the pandemic, per Bloomberg.
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JUST IN: Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' buys 4,871 Bitcoin worth $330 million.
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