Mark

Let me walk you through what happened one hour before Trump announced the five day moratorium on Iran strikes. $1.5 billion in notional S&P E-mini futures contracts. Four to six times normal activity. One hour before the announcement. Simultaneously, $192 million in crude oil futures purchased at the same time. They made between $300 and $400 million dollars off those trades. Trump claimed he spoke to an Iranian official to negotiate the moratorium. The Iranians said that person doesn't exist and the conversation never happened. This is not the first time. It has happened multiple times. He says something. The trade goes on. He says another thing. The market moves. But whatever you call it — they are laughing at you and they are laughing at me while they do it. Hunter Biden sold a painting and Washington lost its mind. These people are making hundreds upon hundreds of millions of dollars trading on information that only exists inside the most powerful office in the world. I think we are dramatically underreporting how much money is actually being made here. This isn't politics anymore. This is a financial operation running out of the White House.

A Trump administration official tells Axios: "This isn't 3D chess — it's 12-dimensional. He contradicts himself regularly, so nobody knows what he's thinking. It's on purpose."

Keir Starmer says the UK will convene 35 countries to discuss the diplomatic and political measures needed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and UK military planners will meet as well. The unspoken implication of the focus on diplomacy is that if Trump walks away without reopening the strait and without a deal with Iran, then Tehran holds the cards and will be able to negotiate terms with Western and Gulf countries. Many would conclude that scenario would leave Iran in many ways in a stronger international position than before Trump’s war - a remarkable outcome.