maskache

What I learned in round 1 of Hive World Cup that’s gonna make me a better trader. Competing against the best on @Polymarket in @HiveLiveHQ World Cup with a time and money constraint wasn’t easy. But I learned a lot of things along the way that’ll help me going forward. Here they are:

@GnatykA And it just reached 28 😅

@liquidatedxxx Wow great work!

The Maine model will take awhile to run because there is a lot to look at. It is perfect to run on ChatGPT's new 5.6 Sol. Here is a teaser on how it works. 2 Core Components: -Voting Intent Score (AI determination of who the delegate-candidate will most likely vote Jackson/Bellows/Shah based on their statement) -Delegate Selection Likelihood (how the delegate-candidate compares to the rest of the county pool and whether they will get selected at the end. e.g. a local mayor is more likely) These 2 are combined into a single Delegate Expected Contribution to either Jackson/Bellows/Shah. Repeat for all the counties. Here are the results from the 1st county, Androscoggin

@PiratesPredict @Abomination81 genius

@Abomination81 Fraud? Nice! You’d make a great pirate 🏴‍☠️

@ClydeCashCrypto @HiveLiveHQ oh, gg! But I don't think it's over, you still have time?

@HiveLiveHQ gg @Mask4che I probably would have sold when he starting tweeting to minimize losses but I know my only shot of beating you was to go big or go home so I doubled down.

Elon appeared to finally be going to sleep he was awake for 14 HOURS and then for no reason at HOUR 16 he tweets 11 times absolutely destroying my position basically eliminating me from @HiveLiveHQ's tournament, Fuck you Elon.

@bernardbulletin @HiveLiveHQ Congrats @bernardbulletin , nice trade!

Some personal news: I advanced to the round of 16 in the @HiveLiveHQ tournament after my moron opponent was caught cheating in the last round. Now I'm up against a weather trader and off to a great start after going big on Platner to drop out yesterday.

@liquidatedxxx He still dont have any incitative to quit early. He can negociate till last minute on his successor and his exit. I am on NO July 8 and July 9

I sold my Yes Dropout and switched to No Dropout because I think Platner and his team are truly psychotic. Go big or go home!

@atteonthephone Epic comeback! Congrats!

Yesterday I pledged something that would be hard to swallow: I pledged that if I were to lose this Hive competition knockout round to Rex, I would eat my phone. 😰 My mom always told me not to bite off more than you can chew and I should have listened. Not long after making the pledge, Rex made some solid trades that increased his pnl to $1000, compared against my pnl of $600. I was scouting for opportunities to catch up, not finding anything good, and in my desperation I ended up shoving the majority of my bankroll on a 63c avg gamble in London. I lost the gamble. After losing in London I looked at the remnants of my bankroll and placed some overnight longshot throwaway bets. Lost those, too. Morning came. I collected pennies from between my couch cushions and put everything on another London gamble, similar to the one the day before that lost. Don't I ever learn? Perhaps not surprisingly, that position was under water for almost the entire day, slowly inching towards zero. The clock was ticking and the sun was going down. I needed the temperature to go up just one more degree. Eventually I even started selling down the position at a loss. But then... the market price went too far. 90/10? No, that's not right. I started placing orders in the other direction: I was now buying back what I already sold, but cheaper. I was getting 8c fills on a day that wasn't done. There was at least one realistic METAR tick left. Maybe two. And then, at the hour of our Lord, 17:20, with market price still 90/10 against me, METAR ticked up. 32 CELSIUS! With this stroke of good fortune, I climbed up from $200 to $700 (in portfolio value, not pnl). But what next? I now had $700 against Rex's $1600. So I needed to turn this $700 into more than $1600 within the next 10 hours. So I needed to find a bet where I could realistically enter at 20c-43c price range, with at least moderate liquidity, positive expected value and fast resolution. After searching through markets for 1 hour, I got a tip from @protrade47 that the "Will Ronaldo cry" market was about to be clarified. Wait, didn't that market go to near zero already? Yes, it did, it went to 4c before Polymarket announced a clarification was coming. Why is Polymarket clarifying something that would almost certainy resolve to "NO" in UMA without clarification? They don't usually clarify disputed markets so late into the UMA process. So why now? Was it because... they didn't like the outcome UMA was going to produce? Market had gone up from 4c to 25c purely on the info that a clarification was coming. I thought that it would be +EV for me to enter at 25c, especially with the recent Microstrategy lawsuit and firing of Bosaurum hanging over their heads. If they were going to clarify a market today, they would at least try to get it right, and today would not be a day of sloppy work or corruption. So I took $500 of my $700 bankroll and bet it on "Will unknown Polymarket employee think that this video shows a tear on Ronaldo's face? YES." And less than 1 hour later, BOOM, market clarified to YES. My $500 turned into $2000, and with that, my bankroll into $2200. $200 to $2200 comeback. It seemed that Rex even had a "NO" position on the Ronaldo market I won, so his pnl dropped to $600 as mine went to $1700. Against all odds, it looked like I was going to win this knockout round. And best of all, I wouldn't have to eat my phone.

@PiratesPredict @Atenov_D I am not sure, he had a big lost today in Seoul

@Atenov_D @Mask4che you should really copy trade this guy

This guy is slowly making a yearly salary in one day. And he does it by trading weather markets. > His strategy is impressive: he buys the markets that almost nobody believes in. While others ignore them, he studies the forecast, finds the setup and enters early. >> The best part? All the analysis can be done through this weather bot: [t.me/weatherscan_bo…] Just his own strategy, quality analysis and boring execution. His profile: [@shyguy1?via=atenov_D" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@shyguy1?via=a…] Weather markets are still one of the most ignored niches on Polymarket. And traders like this are quietly taking advantage of it. What do you think about this trader?

😂

I missed this market, but it was a nice preview of when the weather markets will have more volume.

@atteonthephone 😂🌿

Today in Weather Olympus Discord: a question was asked.

@liquidatedxxx Congrats!

Who can deny the Viking God???

@husky_vs 🫣

👀👀👀

@RealAlbanianPat Hi! I am one of your biggest fan!

I haven't followed back people in a while reply if you want a followback

Currently, the level of frustration this scam is causing me isn't worth taking the time and energy to actively trade the weather. I'm taking a break, enjoying the pool, and thinking about new weather strategies/ and maybe returning to other more political or cultural markets.

@bernardbulletin @betmoardotfun Wow, congrats! Really impressive

Some more personal news: I finally cracked $500,000 in net profit (and then some!). I started with $20,000 last fall and haven't topped up since. Huge thank you to all the kind folks I've collaborated with, argued with, lost money to, and became pals with on this wild journey.

@jardel1307 @protrade47 @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket Wow 😂

@protrade47 @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket If there is LP rewards, you have still edge even with 0 fills.

Someone found a way to fake fills and is printing 6 figures a day in LP rewards on Polymarket

@094551YY Congrats, I was sure that it would be 27C on the last spike. Very intense session. It was fun tho. I like your dashboard.

今天首尔死里逃生 如果不回温就亏1.5K(34c 4000+股份） 一开始是准备87C做一下斩杀26no，结果掉温（被套400股） 回温本来想70C走 结果操作失误70C又买了500股份（灾难的开始） 下一报回温有机会50C走，可是成本太高了,没有走（沉默成本不参与重大决策） 天气车头D哥@protrade47和面具哥@Mask4che在26Y,一直吃单，还有跟单效应26no价格一直上不去（这个时候情绪就上来了，觉得自己跑不掉，都是车头效应导致，开始30C加仓1000股 20C加仓1000股 有了对抗车头成为车头的想法，情绪太可怕了，应该理解对手盘尊重对手盘，他们的视角一定看到了我看不到的因素） 下下报盘面崩了，26no价格来到个位数，这个时候只能补仓7C补了1000股份左右，感觉应该早点补，拉低均价更容易波段 最幸运的是升温了，在34-38C出掉了所有的26no(主要是D哥和面具哥也换仓26no） 3个月的天气交易经验让我关键时刻做出了正确的判断 我非常幸运没有亏损的情况收获了宝贵的一课经验 1.情绪不能代入交易 2.太贵的筹码没有波段机会 3.温度趋势存在 被套要低位克服恐惧勇敢补仓 4.入场检查对手盘，对抗顶级交易者风险很大 5.每一次大额的持有股份都是克服恐惧的开始 首尔好多天半点和整点掉温了，有点人为刻意操作的结果 @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade 准备休息一段时间了 消化今天这宝贵的一课 知行合一再战天气市场

Weather traders once again dominated the overall leaderboards, occupying 6 of the top 10 But we also saw politics, sports, and box office traders on the final leaderboard Let's take a look at the trades that put earned each of the top 10 their spot ⬇️🧵