MatSavant

We teach our kids to score points and keep scoring points. The magic number used to be 7 to have a good chance at winning, but with the new scoring system you really need to be getting 8-10 to win the majority of your matches. Unless you're AJ Ferrari bro. And you probably aren't. This data is based on every D1 match wrestled so far this season.

#3: Michigan and Arizona State had great performances tonight, and have both moved in to the top 10 in the projected standings.

#2: Penn State continued their climb towards the all time record of 177 team points. Davis and Mirasola both lost as predicted, but the rest of the team dominated with almost all bonus point victories.

Here are the stories from Round 2: 1. In the battle for 2nd place, Nebraska had an unbelievable round. The Huskers overperformed their projection by 19 points, flying past Ohio State and putting themselves in a virtual tie with Oklahoma State. Meanwhile, Ohiop State had a terrible evening. Losses by Feldman and Bouzakis led their fall.

Another feature I added on the Live Tracker is an analysis of each wrestler. On the left is a column showing each wrestlers chance of reaching AA status. This takes in to account their bracket path. So you can see here that Lockett and Araujo will wrestle each other in the consolation bracket tomorrow morning after both getting upset today, with one going home. That's part of why their chances of AA is very low now.

@wilsonkanaday They're only 2.2 points below pre-tourney projection right now. They had a couple of tough losses, but they've also picked up a couple good wins now too. We'll see...

@MatSavant Analysis of Ohio St under-performing?

With PJ Duke's pin, Penn State crawls ever closer to the 177 pt target in the projected team points.

Lockett gets pinned, and the OSU/tOSU gap is closed once again...

With the Bouzakis upset, OK State has finally created a small gap over Ohio State in the race for second.

@ReligionlessX Yessir

@MatSavant This is awesome! Thank you for doing this.

We are LIVE! The tracker is working as designed. Okie State with the first movement in the top 10 tracker, via Troy Spratley. You can view the tracker at matsavant.com

@jdbunkers So far so good. I was just glad it worked so I could watch wrestling instead of fixing bugs.

@MatSavant Looks like everything went really well for you. Congrats.

I added another section on the page. This tracks the biggest individual winners/losers in projected team points relative to the start of the tournament.

Round 1 takeaway #4: Iowa and Iowa State are battling for 5th. There were actually 5 lead changes between those two during the round. In the end, Iowa pulled slightly ahead with a near perfect round and an increase of 6.2 projected team points. They were just a riding time second away from a huge upset by Gabe Arnold that would have pulled them well ahead. ISU, for their part, had a big time upset pin my MJ Gaitan to keep it close.

Round 1 takeaway #3: Nebraska is fighting for 4th place, and hoping to work up to the 2nd place battle. The loss from Araoju to Parco cost them 5.2 pts, but an otherwise solid round kept them in the race. They currently site 16 points behind 2nd.

Here are the stories of round 1, according to my MatSavant tracker: 1. PSU started out hot. With bonuses at almost every weight, they expanded their lead with an increase of 9.7 pts over the initial projection. * This is based on average performance for their seeds. So even though they had 7 number 1 seeds, they still are outperforming what historical average guys have done in their positions.

@samirsoriano Bad timing, they just dripped out of the top 10. 😔 ASU is now in.

@MatSavant Go Lehigh!

Parco with the first huge upset with major projected team points impact on the leaderboard. That was a great finish by Parco to pull that off in a good match.

@JustinJBasch Thanks!

Can not praise this effort enough. Give @MatSavant a follow!

@LAWCoachClem What’s it doing? I’ve got it up on my desktop now in chrome and Safari and it’s working. If you tell me more I’ll try to figure it out.

@MatSavant This is working on mobile but not on my desktop.

And with that win, OSU moves ahead of tOSU in the projection. (Yes, I know it's really early. Just having some fun here).