Mateesh

@Doom_N_Gloom_D @PeterLBrandt Better yet, SanDisk. Or Micron. Or even Intel

@PeterLBrandt Like shorting the Nasdaq right now

Trading and pulling the trigger Here is the reality There is a thing about pulling the trigger No matter what the trade is, one can always find a reason not to pull it The reality is this -- when it is easy to pull the trigger on a trade, that trade will most likely be a loser The best trades are whose triggers are hardest to pull

If you trade when you shouldn't you'll generally lose money. In most cases identifying when you shouldn't trade is simple. But that judgment gets clouded if you're tilted, feeling FOMO, bored, and a bunch of other external factors. It's a bit like post nut clarity: as soon as you're out of it you can't believe you thought it was a good fill. Traders try to mitigate this behaviour via detailed entry checklists but they're often too long or too vague to be useful. So here's an extremely simple checklist: should-i-punt. Run through it in your head before any trade, or install it as a skill if your LLM psychosis is advanced enough and you've already built 14 broken dashboards. Trading is hard enough as it is; don't make it harder by dragging down your PnL with unforced errors.

Read the Market Wizards chapter on Kristjan Kullamägi this weekend. The one section that really stood out was when he discussed his drawdown off of his 2021 peak. "I started 2020 with $3.5 million and ended the year at $36 million. It was a thousand percent year. Then I ran that $36 million to a high of $105 million, and the last portion of that move from $65 to $105 million occurred in just a month and a half. For a brief period, just a few days, I was over $100 million. You have to understand what that did to my psyche. It made me feel completely detached from reality. I thought, “I’m going to get to $200 million in six months.” I was completely sure of that. I started seeing trading as a video game, which I kept winning. Measured from my $105 million peak in November 2021 to my mid-2022 low, I lost approximately $60 million. About half of that loss represented the late 2021 retracement of the large open profits at the November peak to the stops on those positions. The initial retracement loss was so large because I was leveraged long at my peak. My long exposure was $150 million—a number I recall because I remember bragging about it to a friend" These boom and bust type tales are as old as time. Look at Jessie Livermore as the classic example. Net worth of $0 in 1906 to a peak of $1.6 billion (inflation adjusted to 2021 dollars) in 1929. Just 5 years later he blew up and owed $104 million dollars to his brokers... Or look at Paul Tudor Jones. Hit one of the most legendary trades in history, making roughly $200 million dollars during the 1987 crash. It cemented him as a legend. His mental coach Tony Robbins said that Jones consistently lost money for the next 4 years after that peak. Dan Zanger parlayed $10,000 into $42 million during the late 90's. Then in late 2000 he took a 70% drawdown when he was 200% long 3-4 fiber optic stocks as the dot-com bubble was popping. Charles Harris reached 8-figures status after he ran up his account over 4,000% from 2020-21, then experienced a -80% drawdown, mostly due to his big TSLA bet in 2021-2022. I have seen a few people speculating on Kristjans story from the outside. Saying "I would have stopped trading at $100 million" or "I would have just taken that money and started investing". To those people I ask if you have ever experienced a real euphoric run in your trading account, let alone turning 5k into 100mil? Extreme winning streaks like the ones above breed overwhelming euphoria and overconfidence. The mind shifts its focus from process to outcomes, with ego-driven decisions overriding risk parameters and rules. From my experience I have found it near impossible to be aware of this at the peak of the run. It is almost like you are blacked out and the greed/ego completely takes over your trading. Then the drawdown begins. The emotions shift from euphoria and greed to revenge, fear, and doubt. This is where things can really start to spiral out of control. It is only after the drawdown has run its course that you finally come back to your senses and your emotions drift back towards baseline levels. Then all you're left with is regret... Few people ever talk about what a big winning streak can do to you. It can literally change the way you think and operate. Often the ability to achieve super returns is also its biggest drawback—a true double-edged sword. To be able to conquer both sides is the holy grail... From the Hour Between Dog and Wolf by John Coates: "When traders enjoy an extended winning streak they experience a high that is powerfully narcotic. This feeling, as overwhelming as passionate desire or wall-banging anger, is very difficult to control. Any trader knows the feeling, and we all fear its consequences. Under its influence we tend to feel invincible, and put on such stupid trades, in such large size, that we end up losing more money on them than we made on the winning streak in the first place. It has to be understood that traders on a roll are traders under the influence of a drug that has the power to transform them into different people."

The dollar IS the bubble. The dollar is getting devalued into oblivion which is creating these mindless valuations. Everything is inflated and eventually everything will pop, all at once, if the US fails to stop the debt train.

@beautyisineyes @dalbati_churmaa Jealous? Amir aadmi kabhi bhikari se jealous hota hai kya?

@dalbati_churmaa When people with kids jealous from people with no kids 🤣🤣🤣 if not thn why you worry so much.

While we were planning for 2nd kid , many of our friends told us not to plan as they are not pocket friendly, but we decided to give our elder child a sibling with whom he can play and share things , it teaches them care , empathy , love , affection and what not which is highly require for a kids development. they are not that costly as it seems and everyone in life makes monetory progress. Problem with today’s woke generation is they will lose their freedom , if their parents would have thought the same they were not even here to plan not to have babies.

@aakashgupta A classic example of AI prompt that went wrong.

Kaley Cuoco was getting paid more per week to play a broke waitress than Penny would have earned in a decade of actual waitressing. Season 1 paid her $60,000 per episode, the same as Galecki and Parsons. By season 4 she was at $200,000. By season 8 she signed a three-year deal for $1 million per episode. She was earning $24 million per season to pretend she couldn't make rent across the hall from two physicists. Then came the trade nobody talks about. In season 8, Cuoco, Galecki, and Parsons each negotiated 1% of the show's backend equity. Warner Bros booked roughly $1 billion in first-year syndication sales. That 1% paid each of them an additional $10 million. And it kept paying every year for a decade after the show wrapped. She also gave up money on purpose. In 2017, Mayim Bialik and Melissa Rauch were at $200,000 per episode while the top five were at $1 million. Cuoco and her four male co-stars voluntarily dropped themselves to $900,000 so Bialik and Rauch could move to $500,000. That gesture cost Cuoco roughly $7 million across the final two seasons. Total base salary across 12 seasons: $148.965 million. Add another $100 million in syndication and residuals that still show up in her mailbox today. The girl playing the waitress who couldn't afford rent had the money to buy the whole building before the show even finished airing.

@priteshlakhani @narayananh Don't complain if you get mediocre candidates.

@narayananh Incorrect Past helps us understand the corelation to performance. Its just like startup investing. You ask 10 questions to judge the intent and caliber.

His past salary shouldn't be relevant. You have your budget, and he has his desired pay. Your goal is to find a way to satisfy both. The Indian practice of basing a candidate’s salary on their previous salary and then increasing it by a percentage needs to end.

@india_plus_ This proves that even billionaires can be stupid.

🚨 "When kids ask me for life advice I tell them - Do whatever, don't leave India" - Nithin Kamath follow @india_plus_

@Hoopss The animal's right to live > Your "choice" to eat it. An animal has a bigger right on their life than those who decide to kill it for consumption.

What opinion will get you in this position?

@Amara_Bengaluru @vipulshah729 Indians have this tendency to emphasize past laurels and past performances too much

@vipulshah729 Astonishing how CNBC 18 ETNOW NDTV PROFIT call him for discussions even today..

What a fake man Saurabh Mukherjea has turned out to be. I had massive respect for him. Bought his books, read them all, followed his investment style for a while too. Wrote books talking about coffee can investing and sold long term bullish stories about Indian markets. Held a chappal on stage vouching for a footwear manufacturing company which is down 79% from its all time high price. Advocated Buy at Any Price strategy and said valuations are a farse. Created multiple strategies to attract capital. His marque CCP has failed to beat the benchmark Nifty 50 over all periods i.e last 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years and 5 years. So has his other schemes. Now, he says he has moved 50% out of India as he sees better opportunities there. Karma is for real. Saurabh’s PMS Marcellus Investment Managers has seen a massive fall in their AUM size and client numbers. Since November 2023, their Client base has fallen from 7000 clients to 2311, a fall of 67%. His AUM has fallen from 10000 cr to 2435 cr, a fall of 76%. How are the news channels still getting him for discussions. Have their lost their conscience completely like Saurabh?

The Lewis turning point assumes the system underneath actually works. It doesn’t work if corruption progressively seeps in and fills all the margin gaps. For eg in India land isn’t priced fairly by demand. It’s priced based on a subjective system of corruption. So there's no true cost of land. Everyday costs are layered - permits for your business, weak public transport, poor access to affordable food for workers - which means extra costs that workers don’t get to keep, security and pilferage costs - which mean you can never rest and subjective taxation, where a local taxman can always fine you unless you pay up in other ways. It all adds up, so there’s very little margin for wage growth. India per capita ~$2.5k, bike $800 → ~0.32x income. China per capita ~$12.5k, bike $800 → ~0.06x. Now the question should be why the bike costs the same (or less) in China while the burden in India is ~5x higher. A dysfunctional system - bureaucracy, law and order, and administrative friction - keeps extracting at every step. That extraction eats into any margins - and thus upward mobility - so my view is that even higher wages will not translate into meaningful improvement anytime soon and this anguish will be manipulated by various interested parties for their own petty agendas. So to solve this - India must decisively solve for corruption in public life.

A gigantic chunk of Indian problems are municipal and law and order related which happens to be a state subject. The main focus of most Indian mainstream media revolves around the central government. They matter, but our lives are disproportionately affected by municipal corporations and state governments. Imagine a media landscape that hammers the BMC etc across India. Imagine a media landscape that does a dedicated show on police to citizen ratio decade after decade cutting across Indian states. Just let people know the numbers and then see what happens.

@FellowshipofUK @AyoKnight1 @RishiSunak Keep yawning but then don't bitch about not being able to compete with an 11 year old girl. Weak ass white trash

@AyoKnight1 @RishiSunak 🥱

Huge congratulations to Bodhana Sivanandan on becoming England’s top female chess player at just 11 years old. We once played each other in the Downing Street garden. Let’s just say her success has not come as a shock!

@volklub @RoadHound Hopefully with all the limbs intact

@RoadHound He survived

This is not an April Fool’s post. If you truly love your son or daughter and they are above 18, especially if they commute to college or tuition, get them proper driving training twice and buy them an Alto or Celerio/Tiago for their safety. On Indian roads, the game has slipped from our hands, we need that extra layer of safety more than ever before. No one is coming to save you and your kids.

@ihailmyindia And despite that INR is 95. Tells you the true picture not the one you're trying to paint.

> We’re aware that India’s crude oil imports were about 189MT in 2014 & have risen to around 244MT in 2026. > We’re also aware that India’s exports were roughly $314B in 2014 & have grown to about $776B in 2026. > We’re also aware that India’s forex reserves were around $304B in 2014 & are now about $698+B in 2026. > We’re also aware that capex was about ₹1.9 lakh crore in 2014, & has increased to around ₹12.1 lakh crore in 2026

this is excellent >GitLab founder diagnosed with rare cancer (osteosarcoma) >standard care works but cancer comes back later >medical team says there's not much else to do >"It became my own job to keep myself alive. Nobody else was going to do it for me at this point" >starts researching, assembles his own medical team, uses AI for deep research >“I’ll talk to anyone, I’ll go anywhere, and I can be there anytime" to collect information >does as many diagnostic tests as he can find as often as he can (maximal diagnostics) >develops his own therapeutic ladder with repurposed drugs, personalized medicine, etc >Sid’s cancer currently in remission

@CAamanmittal By this logic the rich should be paying 500₹ per kg for tomatoes and 1000₹ per kg for rice since they have a lot of money. I have repeatedly seen CAs that are weak in critical thinking and logical reasoning. Remember people, being a bookworm doesn't make you smart.

A relative of my client today called me for 4 Networth Certificates of his family for giving it to the bank. I saw the ITR & Balance Sheet as on 31.03.2025, each having an Income of more than 50 Lakhs and Capital Balance of more than 15 Crore. I quoted 15k for each certificate. What the person said actually shocked me. "He said our regular CA has quoted 5k for each certificate which I felt was high so I had contacted you and you are quoting much higher fees" I simply said please get it done from your regular CA, I can't lower it. Some few points I noticed in this case: 1. The client isn't loyal to anyone, if the other CA quotes a Rs 1000 less client will go there. 2. People earning in crores, still try to get a discount of Rs 1000/- or 2000/- 3. People nowadays to save a very few bucks can share their financial data with anyone & everyone. #CA_Practice

@ArrushAdityadev Nifty was about 24300 on November 1 2024. Today it is 22800, it is hardly down 6% from your level after 17 (SEVENTEEN) freaking months! 20000 is still far away and you somehow think your prediction was accurate? And this makes you an expert?

BREAKING: “Nifty could even fall to 20,000.” This call was made on 1st November 2024. Today, many may look back and regret missing it , caught in noise and false optimism, while their portfolios have corrected 20 – 60%. 15 years in the markets has taught me one thing: narratives are manufactured, and most people fall for them. I don’t follow the noise , I anticipate what’s next. And those who overlook what’s coming both in markets and astro cycles may later regret “I should have followed Adlytick earlier.”

And then they/them wonder why Google hired an H1-B instead of they/them

@NehraWorkss Ather energy is worth $3 billion not $1.3 billion, that was its IPO valuation.

Tarun Mehta graduated from IIT Madras. Wanted to be a consultant. Didn't get the job. Applied to Harvard MBA. Rejected. Ended up at Ashok Leyland. For 4 months he had no computer. Just wandered the campus reading books in the library. Quit. Went back to IIT Madras. Started building battery packs in an empty lab. IIT gave him space and support. His professor said 'leave your job and come back, we will take care of everything.' He built India's first smart electric scooter. Spent 5 years building before putting one on the road. Ather Energy is now worth $1.3 billion. The consultant job that rejected him. Probably uses Ather scooters in their office parking now.