@credealjunkie Can you imagine if San Francisco eliminated rent control?.
What would that unwind look for current residents, what would it look like for development?
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Jeff Matlock
924 posts
Jeff Matlock
@MatlockLoans
Capital Markets Debt & Equity at Gantry. Commercial loans $2 to $100+ million. Tweets on loans, CRE investment. Dad of 2 girls.
San Francisco, CA Katılım Mayıs 2022
1.2K Takip Edilen1.8K Takipçiler
You’re the San Francisco housing czar for a day. You can do three things.
What are you doing and why?
I’ll start:
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@realEstateTrent People under appreciate how much money was everywhere with the tech companies in the 20teens. That was a peak. It’s hard to say that was normal. Office leasing in San Francisco and Oakland has a long way to go.
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BART is the main transit system in the Bay Area.
Mid-week ridership is now at 45% of pre-pandemic levels, and Fridays are only at around 1/3.
It's now been almost 5 years since we first heard of COVID, and it seems like the Bay Area work-from-home culture's here to stay.
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@jasonc_nc I saw @moseskagan point out that old businesses tend to produce cash flow so owners can give money away without diluting their ownership. High growth companies would have to sell their ownership to give it away. It should be included in the thought process.
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Was told today by a close family member that my professional life has been “easy.”
I sat quietly, sort of stunned thinking of the late nights and endless rejection and leaps of blind faith.
But mostly I’m just proud that I’ve made this much failure look so easy.
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@adamstatonsmith Portland construction! I have an apartment loan for twice that we are about to launch to lenders. Is the project MAX adjacent?
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I’ve got a big pitch next week: $20M new construction multifamily project.
How much of your AI notes that helped you to build the valuation are you giving the owner?
I’ve used 54 comps, debt factored in, Im valuing this down to the square inch basically.
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@nickeyhorn The food scene is surprisingly good. Try local restaurants.
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Going to Palm Springs next week. (First time)
What do i need to know?
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@credealjunkie I am fascinated by this. After doing it once do you think you coukd replicate this in another market in a few hours?
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A little under 60 days from this .... to this.
I mean not bad
Andrew Jeffery@credealjunkie
I remember years ago when Trulia (remember Trulia??) came out with real estate heat maps and it blew my mind. Now Claude can produce a rental market heat map in 30 seconds with a simple prompt. But, ChatGPT, Gemini and Grok all failed to do the same. Here’s San Francisco:
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@credealjunkie Thank you. It takes a lot of time. I question if it’s worth it.
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@DDrolapas No. They would say in their thousands of data points in their portfolio they always see some vacancy no matter what people try to pitch them on.
I get your pitch though. Especially if it’s a good thing that they move out. But a lender takes a vacancy factor every time.
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@MatlockLoans And that’s all that matters. Do they ever discount the vacancy factor though?
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Do you think a 100% occupied rent controlled apartment building with units that haven't turned over in 20 years should be underwritten with a vacancy factor?
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We took our 4 and 6 year old to
Disneyland for 3 days. The magic of
Disney is real, I highly recommend it!
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@CTourtellotte Was this your rate lock a couple of weeks ago? Did you make the right call?
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CLOSED!
We acquired 1,495 units from Aimco for $455M!
Why this portfolio?
- Low 6 cap rate w/ assumable agency debt in the low 4s = double digit ave. Cash on Cash
~98% leased
- Direct relationship w/ Seller
- 7-8% annual lease trade outs!
We’re already beating Proforma
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@rohindhar What drives this? I live in Walnut Creek. Is this an outlier or part of an early trend?
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San Francisco home sale in the Cole Valley neighborhood at $2.3MM over asking price
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@stevegarthwaite @CaseyMericle @HealthcareREguy I have a client closing on one of these tomorrow. Grand Slam deal. Corporate seller. He has 35 years of experience, cash to close (even though he is using debt) he jumped on it faster than anyone.
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@CaseyMericle @HealthcareREguy This is an ordinary outcome when buying from corporate users. Warehouse, MOB, former HQ.
These companies aren’t RE operators or investors. They need it off their books and fast. The brokers with the inside track to these offerings are good connects to build.
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It’s hard to overstate how much real estate wealth has been created by buyers with $5M -$10M in liquid capital who can close fast
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@harrisonfinberg Do you think it will make you dumber and harder to have creative thoughts? This weekend I spoke with friends who use AI a ton and it saves them a ton of time but they said they are now incredibly reliant on it.
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This is the best 200/month I’ve ever spent. They could charge 2,000 and I wouldn’t blink
Claude@claudeai
You can now enable Claude to use your computer to complete tasks. It opens your apps, navigates your browser, fills in spreadsheets—anything you'd do sitting at your desk. Research preview in Claude Cowork and Claude Code, macOS only.
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@credealjunkie Are you giving it data, instructing it where to find the data or blindly asking it to figure it out?
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Not perfect, but Claude and I are making progress on the definitive San Francisco apartment rental dataset and heat map.
Latest version:
Andrew Jeffery@credealjunkie
I remember years ago when Trulia (remember Trulia??) came out with real estate heat maps and it blew my mind. Now Claude can produce a rental market heat map in 30 seconds with a simple prompt. But, ChatGPT, Gemini and Grok all failed to do the same. Here’s San Francisco:
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The trend continues, big money is coming back (finally)
HSBC Life plans to return to real estate via value add funds.... HSBC is looking at real estate funds again after committing no new capital to the asset class for several years.
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@mortgagetruth The person this serves is on the lower end, it will look great until they have more delinquency and problems. There are so many small exceptions that humans can deal with that computers will mis-price or incorrectly accept the risk.
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Mortgage lender Better has teamed up with OpenAI to "fully underwrite a mortgage loan" in as little as 47 seconds.
This sounds like great news for borrowers, especially if costs are cut and passed to consumers.
It doesn't paint a bright future for underwriters and LOs though.
Initially, LOs feed consumer application data and documents into the Tinman AI app.
How long before consumers just do it all themselves?
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@shawngorham Was each new house a fix up project that you invested sweat equity into or upgrade in size/neighborhood?
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If I started Real Estate over again:
1. I would look at my primary house as a quality of life decision for my family vs an investment
(that means I would have stayed in the 2nd home we bought vs moving 3 more times)
2. After my family was settled - I would have bought industrial and retail strip vs single house and small multi
I would have focused on small contractor yards, odd shaped industrial lots, value add small user industrial, small run down neighborhood retail I could take down on my own.
I was not meant for single and multi family - it was just the easiest to finance
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Happy birthday to @realEstateTrent, a real mensch who, at the rate he's going, will end up owning *all* the good strip malls.
Here's to another happy, healthy, prosperous trip around the sun!
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