Matthew Chang

I just wrote my first book. RISK TAKING IS BIBLICAL It’s a “how to” guide about applying biblical principles towards doing what Christ commanded you to do: take Kingdom sized risks. The key text of the book: Parable of the Talents 🧵

I mostly pretend to understand Michael, because everything he says is on the next level:

@leadlagreport Incredible analysis

@ShinghiD @WSJ Party time. Tell Mr @JeffBezos I just need $1BN

@WSJ @MatthewChang heyo

Breaking: Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy manufacturing companies and use AI to automate them wsj.com/tech/jeff-bezo…

@leadlagreport You’ve always been 2 things: 1) right 2) early

Gold collapsing is bringing back the flight to safety trade in Treasuries. They will stand alone. I'm right. I'm FUCKING RIGHT.

If you want a compelling, live podcast to listen to, check out The ReForge Pod. Even if you’re not an “industrialist,” there are transferable values and practices that can help you. Whatever the context, you catch values. And I’m finding these conversations to be fascinating.

@_The_Prophet__ @marvinliao Fortunately, @ThaaatColin and I offer an optimistic view of new opportunity for these workers:

⚡️The professional middle is entering a slow liquidation. That is what is coming. A lot of six figure workers still think they own scarce cognition. They do not. What they actually own is a seat inside an organizational diagram that is about to be rewritten. For twenty years, companies paid armies of people to summarize, coordinate, package, analyze, report, reassure, sell, recruit, and administratively maintain complexity. AI is about to reveal how much of that layer was never true scarcity. It was overhead wearing prestige. That is why this gets dangerous. The people in that layer built expensive lives around the illusion that their salaries were durable. Big mortgages. daycare. two income households. private schools. lifestyle debt. identity fused to title. So when the compression starts, it does not feel like a normal labor shock. It feels like your class position is being revoked. A person loses the job and suddenly realizes the house was never a fortress. It was a fixed-cost trap financed by continuity. The next 12 to 18 months are likely to be ugly because companies have finally been handed a believable excuse to thin the white collar herd. They can say AI. They can say efficiency. They can say macro caution. They can say market conditions. The language does not matter. The result does. Fewer seats. Longer hiring cycles. More ghosting. Lower offers. Higher bars. More people with impressive resumes chasing jobs beneath prior status. The market will keep telling itself this is temporary. A lot of it is structural. And the cruelest part is that this probably will not arrive as one cinematic crash. It will arrive as social downgrading. The title gets softer. The comp gets cut. The search takes longer. The savings get chewed through. The role accepted is smaller than the last one. The family says it is fine. The person knows something has broken. That kind of decline is much more psychologically destructive than one violent break because it makes people live inside the decay of their own ranking. Housing is where this becomes visible. The professional class was supposed to be the stable bid under the market. If enough of them lose income security while carrying large mortgages, the house stops being optionality and becomes a restraint device. People stop moving. Listings freeze. Spending contracts. Families become geographically trapped because leaving means crystallizing loss or taking a much worse payment elsewhere. The labor shock and the housing shock start feeding each other. Society is about to discover how much of the tax base, consumption base, and institutional calm sat on a white collar class whose value was inflated by a pre-AI information economy. That class thought it had made it because it was paid well. A lot of them were just being temporarily overcompensated to keep the administrative machine running. When the machine needs fewer humans, the paycheck premium gets repriced hard. Bottom line: A lot of six figure jobs are going away. A lot of the people in them will not get equivalent replacements. The pain will concentrate in the salaried professional class with high fixed costs and no ownership cushion. The official data will lag the lived reality. The social mood will get darker long before the statistics fully admit why. The real truth is simple: The next phase is the collapse of professional security. The middle is about to learn that income is not the same thing as safety.

@octopidl It’s fleet sizing. The combined fleet has more power gen / storage than than the airport needs.

@MatthewChang That's gotta have a big battery to power an entire airport

Why spend 3 years building an Airport EV that can back up the entire airport? This is why.

@naiivememe In 4 door, with Bluetooth. I’d buy one

what is stopping car companies from bring older models back ? change absolutely nothing, just make them brand news

@ElecArtTech Haha, critical infrastructure only matters… when disaster strikes!

Three years building backup power or three hours of chaos? The ROI writes itself. ⚡️

@AJA_Cortes Amazing time really. Absolutely amazing. See if your can source 100% of your feedstock from TX.

I chose a hell of a time to start a nitrogen company

@PA91978375 @UnskullSam Come on. The oil risk has been priced in. What other implosion are you predicting.

@UnskullSam @MatthewChang There are a lot of assumptions and premises there that are not sure things so I think it's a non sequitur to say that it's just a matter of time. Iran can't defeat the US & israel militarily. They need asymmetric warfare. They just has to survive and implode the global economy

Iran’s military “system” is nearly collapsed. The former naval armaments geek in me needed to understand how much capacity Iran had and where it stands today. Executive summary: Iran’s military is about 90% degraded - meaning 10% operational. The US and Israel have combined for about 6,500 targeted strikes. As you’ve seen from the videos, we don’t really miss. Israel has been fanatical about mapping every target in Iran and I suspect the primary mission of the combined forces is just to work down the excel spreadsheet of targets. Of course some of the targets were unmapped or mobile launchers or discrete drone launch capability. We have reaper drones and other assets circling in the air to “hunt” those sites. There’s been a lot of talk on this app about “shutting” the strait of Hormuz or asymmetric warfare. I say that’s nonsense. The strait is not shut, because Iran has no way to physically close it. Yes, they hit a ship with a drone and either did, or tried to, lay some mines. But as the video shows below, Iran is shipping oil, so they clearly didn’t close the strait. As for the Asymmetric thing, that’s BS. Iran has brilliant engineers and they developed a military strategy that they could afford. Drones, ballistic missiles, fast boats, etc. But all of that is gone now. No drone factories, no missile factories, 90% of assets and sites gone. At our current rate of fire, all known sites will be gone within a week. As for strategy, Iran has no strategy. That’s why they are lobbing projectiles at their neighbors. Who would bomb Dubai? A country without leadership, that’s who. Like Venezuela, Iran thought its capital was secure. They didn’t have an agile command structure. They just had a counter attack plan, that probably hasn’t been updated in a while. Clearly their assumption about Tehran being safe was the same as Caracas. 60% of outbound launches from Iran go to gulf states, “only” 40% go to Israel. Clearly this is the “porcupine” plan that distributed to middle management if they didn’t know where the threat was coming from. Since Israel is attacking, 80% should go to Israel and 20% to US military infrastructure. What the are doing now is anti-strategic as they are ensuring they have ZERO regional support and wasting their resources. Maybe the plan should be called the “skunk” plan, because it stinks. Iran has also been totally decapitated between the Mullahs and the IRGC. Close to the top 2,000 leaders have been eliminated. I’ve been joking about it, but literally the HR lady and the interns are running the show now. I’m no deep Iran expert, but from what I’ve read there is a domestic army and provincial ethnic powers. I’m sure we are being careful not to target them and CIA / Mossad are already talking to them. Iran’s leadership is like that Hezbollah chart that shows the top 3 levels of leadership all killed. So what’s gonna happen? At this point I think some group, probably a coalition of the army, police, and ethnic groups take the airport, oil companies, and the civil services. They implement a form of martial law while they figure out what to do with the Mullahs and IRGC. Amnesty, prison, or some middle eastern justice. Whoever is in charge immediately brokers a deal with the USA. Dollar infusion, civil service payroll, sanctions lifted from oil. Yes, the US needs to take the oil. 20% royalty to enhance and protect it, 80% to the people of Iran. We control payments and distribution. Iranians get the work. A good deal for all. Perhaps it takes a long time to stabilize Iran due to militant extremists. Or maybe a it goes the way of Venezuela or the job @nayibbukele did cleaning up El Salvador. Who knows. But the end of the Iranian Regime as we know it is within weeks.

@AIEnthusiastIM @JoshuaSteinman 🎯

@MatthewChang @JoshuaSteinman Domain expertise + AI = unstoppable combination! This is exactly the kind of innovation manufacturing needs. The future belongs to those who bridge both worlds.

Incredible find: @JoshuaSteinman

@garrytan It’s a total compliment.

* actually Dmitry is cool you should do it

OMG someone is charging money to teach people how to use GStack on Maven maven.com/aiproducthub/c…

@mkobach @adamscrabble Adobe should tender the stock

Figma employees got hit with the worst 1-2 timing punch ever. Should have had a huge acquisition exit from Adode, but then the global regulatory environment killed that deal. So they go public and hit a market cap 3x of the acquisition price, and everything looks up. Then AI makes massive strides in the 6-month post IPO lockup period and the stock drops -80%.

@PEoperator Amen

@MatthewChang God is good my friend

Closed on an acquisition today⚡️ PP multiple was 3.8x, adds 50% to inventory, 30% to sales. Funded with 100% debt. Synergies for days. To top it off, closed the deal from the gym this morning- the highest level of synergy.

@LetsBuildUSA Yes please!

@MatthewChang Excited to tune into these Hopefully I can get a question next live episode. Would love to hear the pod’s thoughts on some experiences I’ve dealt with at work

The ReForge Podcast - Episode 1 x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@GBNT1952 Or the stats are correct if you control the definition of “civilian”

90% of statistics on X are made up on the spot. This douchebag…