Matthew
228 posts
NFL Sunday goblin board 🏈😈
All of these ones hit in week 1 too
Diggs, Jeudy, Hall favorite 3! 🎯
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TNF 9X 🏈
No sheets today but slip I like for tonight!
💚 $50 to someone who likes if it cashes!
#prizepicks #gamblingX
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MNF 10X 🏈
I'll post some sheets tmrw but ended up with slip I like early!
💚 $50 to someone who likes if it cashes!
#prizepicks #gamblingX
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NFL MNF goblin board 🏈😈
⬇️ Small streaks sheet in comments too
Moore, JJ, Hockenson prob favorite 3! 🎯
#prizepicks #gamblingX
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NFL Week 1 Betting Card🏈:
Aaron Rodgers 202.5 Pass Yards (O)
Stefon Diggs 48.5 Rec Yards (O)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 59.5 Rec Yards (O)
$25 to Someone who LIKES if we go 3-0!🧹
NFL IS BACK ‼️ Lets have an amazing first day back will post more slips in the Dubclub/Discord join to get your 3 day free trial👇🏿
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Drop A ❤️ If Your tailing Any!
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Sunday NFL Play #7 🏈
Jerry Jeudy “O” 4.5 Receptions
#DawgPound vs #WhoDey
Collab with @TonysPickz
Jerry Jeudy is firmly the Browns’ primary pass-catcher, he led Cleveland with 145 targets (a ~22.8% target share) last season, and finished with 90 catches for 1,229 yards with 4 TDs, proving he’s the clear focal point of this offense.
Why this looks playable:
•Volume matters. Jeudy commanded the most looks in Cleveland last year, so a 4–5 reception floor is baked into his role even if the team mixes looks around. He has hit this 5+ receptions lines in 9 of the past 10 games from last season.
•Matchup context. The Bengals allowed 4,016 passing yards in 2024, which suggests they can be attacked through the air when teams get after them. That creates more opportunities for short-to-intermediate receptions, Jeudy’s bread-and-butter.
•Game script & usage. Week 1 divisional games swing in tempo; if Cleveland gets into any shootout or needs consistent moving-the-chains offense, Jeudy is the most likely receiver to see target volume. Recent previews also note this matchup as one to watch for Browns passing success with Flacco running the show.
Ceiling + floor: Jeudy’s combination of route-running volume and target share gives him both a safe baseline and upside on any chunk passing game. 4.5 receptions is a number he clears a healthy percentage of the time.
BEST LINE: -143 DK
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Sunday NFL Play #6 🏈 Collab with @PropKitchen Jamhyr Gibbs Anytime TD #Onepride vs #GoPackGo Have to take advantage getting the NFL’s leading touchdown scorer in 2024 for even money. Gibbs scored 20 total including at least one TD in 13 of 17 games. He also managed to score in both games against the Packers last year. David Montgomery does return to the lineup and is known for being the short-yardage back but that doesn’t mean Gibbs hasn’t been trusted with short-yardage duties as well. Gibbs is the much more explosive running back and does offer much more in the pass game. Reports from training camp indicate Gibbs could receive a heavier workload in the Gibbs-David Montgomery split under Lions first-year offensive coordinator John Morton. The Packers defense historically utilizes zone coverage frequently. Running backs have shown to be more effective in the passing game against zone coverage, catching nearly double the reception rate compared to man coverage. Despite acquiring Micah Parsons, he might be a big impact from in Week 1 since he's hindered by a back injury and needs to adjust to a new system. However, the loss of defensive tackle Kenny Clark could negatively impact their interior run defense. The Lions, featuring Gibbs and David Montgomery, rushed for 232 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers last season. While there is reason to be concerned about the loss of Ben Johnson, Detroit’s OL should still be in very good shape and Morton has indicated he does not intend to completely reinvent the offense and plans to maintain the team's aggressive play-calling style. BEST LINE: -120 DK ❤️ if you’re tailing! @PropsEdge 📊 Code “FRANNY” will get you 20% off!
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NFL 🏈 Lock #3 (Sept. 7th)
Alvin Kamara o 28.5 Rec Yards
(-114 FD)
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- Kamara put any doubts about decline to rest with a strong 2024 season where he posted 68 catches for 543 yards, averaging 38.8 receiving yards per game. His receiving ability has always been his best trait, and even though Kendre Miller may handle some early down work, Kamara remains the go-to option in third down and two-minute drill situations which is exactly the role needed to clear this line.
- When Spencer Rattler started last season, he heavily leaned on Kamara out of the backfield, targeting him 7.7 times per game across four contests. With Kamara averaging 8 yards per catch, that type of volume is more than enough to put him past 28.5 yards. On top of that, Kellen Moore’s system is designed to scheme easy touches for running backs in space, making it likely Kamara sees consistent opportunities.
- The Cardinals struggled against running backs in the passing game last year, ranking 21st in receiving yards allowed and 20th in receptions allowed to the position. Their linebacker group did not see major upgrades in the offseason, leaving them vulnerable again. With the matchup working in his favor and his role secure, Kamara has a strong chance to clear this number.
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NFL 🏈 Lock #1 (Sept. 7th)
Jonathan Taylor o 79.5 Rush Yards
(-120 FD)
71 PERCENT HIT RATE 💎
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- JT comes into week one healthy after battling a high ankle sprain most of last season, yet he still managed 1,431 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 102 yards per game. He cleared this number in 71% of games last year, and when given at least 18 carries (his projected attempts line), he went over in 90%. With a strong offensive line anchored by Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, JT has the blocking needed to establish a strong ground game.
- The matchup also sets up well. Miami lost several key run defenders like Calais Campbell, Da’Shawn Hand, and Anthony Walker, leaving them weaker in the trenches despite adding Kenneth Grant through the draft. Expect regression from a unit that ranked eighth in run defense last season to something closer to league average or worse.
- Head coach Shane Steichen is coaching under pressure and will likely lean on his proven playmakers to set the tone early. That should mean a heavy workload for JT which will give him plenty of opportunities to clear this line.
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NFL Play #2⬇️
Allen Lazard O 11.5 Rec Yards -114 FD
I know my PGH def, weak guys eat. Over 9/12 last szn avg 44.2, including a 4 rec 58 yards vs PGH. PGH has good corners but vets. With 2+ rec he is over 8/9 L szn. Should be playing from behind so expect passes
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NFL WEEK 1 PROP #6 9/07
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Dalton Schultz O 2.5Receptions(-125Bet365)
Love this spot to back Schultz as Christian Kirk will not play on Sunday due to a strained hamstring, leaving Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Xavier Hutchinson as the main wideouts in the Texans' offense.
In 2024, the Rams, under Chris Shula's defensive scheme, ran a heavy zone coverage scheme, using Cover 3 and Cover 6 at a 78% rate. While I hoped for a higher Cover 2 rate, Dalton Schultz ran 306 routes against zone coverage, the 5TH MOST among qualified tight ends.
What I love to see is that receivers were targeted at a 14% rate when lined up in-line, which was the 3RD HIGHEST in the league. We should see heavy over the top Cover 3 zone from the Rams' defense, which should leave short underneath routes open for Schultz, especially with a weakened wide receiver corps missing both Tank Dell and Christian Kirk.
I see some potential ladder value here aswell at 3.5. But would play his receiving or Longest Reception if you can't find 2.5 at solid value.
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🏈 NFL Play (9/7)
Brian Thomas o5.5 Receptions
(-102 FanDuel)
#DUUUVAL
Collab with @PropKitchen 🍽️
Check out his writeup on why we like it⬇️
Brian Thomas is coming off a rookie season in which he caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns.
He excelled with an elite ability to create separation ranking:
- 1st in AVG Slant Separation
- 3rd in AVG Post Separation
- 8th in AVG Go Separation
With the departures of Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and Gabe Davis, Thomas is expected to be the focal point of the Jaguars' passing game in 2025. The Jaguars added rookie wide receiver Travis Hunter, who could compete for targets but also will be used on defense and his skill-set should gardner enough attention to help free up single coverage opportunities for Thomas.
On the flip side, the Panthers defense was amongst the worst in the NFL in 2024, ranking:
- 32nd in total defense
- 32nd in points allowed
- 28th in coverage vs WRs
- 32nd in pass rush
- 19th in WR receptions allowed
New Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen is expected to implement a more pass-heavy, up-tempo offensive scheme, shifting away from the team's struggles in recent years. Cohen resurrected Baker Mayfield and had one of the most explosive passing attacks in Tampa Bay the last two seasons.
Fully expecting this to be a competitive game between two teams who won fewer than five games in 2024. With a 3.5 point spread and a o/u of 46.5, expecting both teams to be able to put up points against rebuilding defenses.
Thomas had success even without Trevor Lawrence in the lineup, but the two seemed to be building a rapport as Thomas' rookie season progressed but was stalled due to Now that Trevor Lawrence is back at center, and Brian Thomas Jr. has a year of experience under his expect him to join the upper echelon of wide receivers.
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NFL Sunday Week 1 Full Card 🔥🏈
$100 To Someone Who ❤️’s & RT’s if we go 8-0!
Austin Ekeler “O” 20.5 Rec Yards
(-120) #RaiseHail
Baker Mayfield “O” 1.5 Pass TD’s
(-128) #WeAreTheKrewe
Ricky Pearsall “O” 3.5 Receptions
(-118) #FTTB
JK Dobbins “O” 42.5 Rush Yards
(-114) #BroncosCountry
Chig Okungwu “O” 32.5 Rec Yards
(-112) #TitanUp
Jamhyr Gibbs Anytime TD
(-120) #Onepride
Jerry Jeudy “O” 4.5 Receptions
(-143) #DawgPound
Deandre Hopkins “O” 14.5 Rec yards
(-114) #RavensFlock
Let’s Carry Over A 3-0 Sweep From Friday
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He SOARS over this line today🚀
Tony Pollard O 14.5 Receiving Yards
(-114 FanDuel | 1.14 Units)
Sunday NFL Week 1 Prop #3🏈
❤️LIKE IF YOU WANT ANOTHER PROP
A lot of opportunities available for Pollard in this one against the Broncos.
For starters, Tyjae Spears is out as he was put on IR a little over a week ago. Behind Pollard is Julius Chesnut now.
Last season, in the 4 full games WITHOUT Spears active, Pollard had solid action through the air…
@ Buffalo: 4 Receiving Yards / 2 Receptions / 6 Targets
@ Detroit: 23 Receiving Yards / 3 Receptions / 4 Targets
Vs. New England: 26 Receiving Yards / 3 Receptions / 3 Targets
@ Houston: 10 Receiving Yards / 3 Receptions / 5 Targets
As you can see, he only went over this line in 2/4 games. However, in the two losses, he had 11 combined targets, a result that we could live with in this game if he gets that.
Now this is also Cam Ward’s NFL debut. Expect another rookie to rely on their RB in the passing game a fair bit. Last season, we saw top draft picks like Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye BOTH use their backs a lot in the passing game.
Pollard faces a Broncos defense that was a solid matchup for RB’s in the pass game last season and a spot that we targeted a lot.
The Broncos have PS2 on the outside who will give Ridley troubles all day long. Chig will get his fair share of targets. Outside of that, it’s Ayomanor making his rookie debut and 32 year old Tyler Lockett.
His receptions line is at 2.5 for this game with a decent amount of juice on the over.
With the Titans likely trailing most of the game, Ward’s attempts line is set at 31.5. I expect a lot of solid opportunities for Pollard to clear this line.
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NFL Sunday 9X 🏈
First Sunday slip of the season! 🚀
💚 $50 to someone who likes if it cashes!
#prizepicks #gamblingX
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