Matt Batsinelas

(1/7) Since March 10th, exchange volume is down nearly 70%. A main indicator of early token success is timing the launch. Recently, several high profile projects that had years to list launched into lower volume markets, with less than expected markups to last round valuations.

Today we announced the release of a new on-chain market structure for tokenized stocks in partnership with @JUmp and @JupiterExchange all working in @solana. Here is why this is very important and how everything works 👇

humidifi (team behind >30% of solana propamm vume) launched something really cool: market making automated by smart contracts if you’re an early project with TGE plans, i would ping Kevin

fomo web is live same identity. same positions. now on the big screen. the whole web is watching 🌎

Deeper in the book, CEXs show more posted depth but the top-of-book resilience on Lighter through an earnings event is an interesting signal when comparing RWA CeFi vs DeFi trading.

@Lighter_xyz held up much better: ~$130k at 10bps pre-earnings, ~$55k post-earnings. That's only a ~58% decrease and post-earnings, Lighter alone had nearly 2x the depth of the other 4 venues combined.

Crypto exchanges and equities are converging, so cross-venue microstructure around earnings is worth a look. $HOOD fell ~10% on earnings today. OI grew slightly, Bybit funding briefly went deeply negative, and Binance led volume followed by Bitget.

ondo, xstocks and securitize account for ~95% of the tokenized stocks market pretty insane domination

@JustinCBram @variational_io Congrats Justin!

Some personal news: I've joined Variational as head of product. I am now responsible for driving the product’s transition from crypto to RWAs. As a long time crypto builder, this is the first time in a while that I'm waking up genuinely excited about what I’m shipping. Beyond the mission, I’ve been incredibly impressed by the caliber of the team here @variational_io is the universal broker. We aggregate liquidity across all perps so users get the best execution in one place. We've facilitated $200B of volume, with current OI at $650M. The RWA category is already bigger than most people realize. RWA perps are now ~50% of onchain volume and the main driver of growth. We’re partnering with the largest exchanges and market makers in tradfi to bring their liquidity to Variational. This means the same depth as tradfi, the best funding rates in the industry, and a breadth of perp markets that don’t exist anywhere else. I won't frontrun the full announcement but that's where 100% of our time is going if you trade perps in size, specifically rwas, dm me so I can get you the benefits of early access and get your feedback built into the product.

This is a step in the right direction

I asked Claude to estimate @Polymarket hypothetical fees based on volume by category and applying some estimates about taker distribution across the new dynamic fee tiers (if live). It came up with ~$13.4mm, or ~$700mm annualized. This is before the US business is even live. Note I didn't ask the team at PM for input on this. Someone with more time and API access will likely get something more exact but i'm sure this is directionally correct.

We're excited to announce we're expanding the release of Polymarket's Referral Program from private beta to all traders with >$10k in volume You will now be eligible for rewards proportionate to the trading volume of all new users you refer Get started: polymarket.com/r/refer-a-frie…

I put together a dashboard to understand user and market level contributions to HyperCore trading fees! fees.6is.dev

0/ PropAMMs are one of the most important innovations in market microstructure in years, possibly decades. A thread

@cmsholdings Definitely makes it harder for cexs to charge for market data. Tbd if they end up giving up more transparency around orderbook depth and liquidations

I hope hype forces the other exchanges to make their data more accessible at a min

JUST IN: Bitcoin recently hit "most oversold" level in 10+ years

@MattyIceCO Did ai write this?

$POWER just cratered 55% in under an hour, going from a $500m market cap to $100m. Following perps markets tells a story that just following spot markets would completely miss. $1.5b+ volume on perps vs. $20m volume on spot the past 24hrs... a 75x difference Open interest doubled in token terms while notional value halved from $80M to $40M. That's not a liquidation cascade. That's a coordinated short attack.

When funding breaks -20,000% annualized, OI doubles in token terms while notional halves, and arb mechanics fail simultaneously, it typically does not signal a normal market. You're potentially seeing a large player or players run over the entire book, particularly on perps.

What was the catalyst? $POWER has a token unlock on March 5th, which could add additional sell pressure. The data could suggest large player(s) front-ran the dilution event.