Maxim Jacobs 🇮🇱🇺🇸

Am I having a stroke

A bartender in Galveston, Texas was arrested for serving a drunk customer who killed someone. She makes $25 an hour. A federal judge makes $236,000 a year and has absolute legal immunity for every decision on the bench, including releasing violent offenders who kill again. 42 states have dram shop laws. The bartender’s causation chain has two links: pour drink, person crashes. Exposed window? Sometimes three hours. She can be charged with criminal negligence, sued in civil court, and lose her livelihood. All for failing to eyeball whether a guy at a crowded bar was too drunk for one more round. The judge has a pre-sentencing report, a criminal history score, a risk assessment algorithm, victim impact statements, and a prosecutor arguing the case in front of them. Every tool the system can produce. And when they get it wrong? Nothing. Absolute judicial immunity, codified since Bradley v. Fisher in 1871, means a judge cannot be sued for any act performed in judicial capacity. How absolute? In 1978, the Supreme Court ruled in Stump v. Sparkman that a judge who signed a petition to sterilize a 15-year-old girl without her knowledge or consent was fully immune. The court acknowledged the act was reprehensible. Didn’t matter. Judicial act, judicial immunity, case closed. That precedent still controls today. The recidivism data is where this gets obscene. The U.S. Sentencing Commission tracked violent offenders released in 2010 across eight years. 63.8% were rearrested. Median time to rearrest: 16 months. These numbers haven’t moved in two decades. The 2005 cohort and the 2010 cohort produced statistically identical outcomes. Judges aren’t making unpredictable calls. They’re making well-documented bets with other people’s lives, and the base rates have been published and available the entire time. The bartender gets three hours of ambiguous signals. The judge gets the full weight of the federal data apparatus. One of them can go to prison for getting it wrong. The other can’t even be named in a civil suit.

NYT report vs. reality: Mossad chief and Iran regime change The New York Times claims the Mossad chief promised early in the war that Iran’s regime could be toppled via a popular uprising framed as a key flaw when that didn’t happen. But that’s not accurate. According to information we have, the Mossad chief did present a serious, comprehensive plan for regime change, but never claimed it could happen at the start or during the war. The plan, shown to senior White House officials, places any potential mass protests at the end of the war, possibly months later—consistent with messages we’ve heard from Israel’s leadership in recent days. Moreover, significant parts of that plan haven’t even been implemented yet and still require approvals. Barnea spoke about feasibility not immediacy and stressed it would take time and only come after the fighting ends. It’s also worth noting: Trump himself urged the Iranian public to stay home during the operation, warning it was too dangerous to take to the streets. So reports of U.S. “disappointment” over supposed promises by Barnea are, at the very least, puzzling.

*MARINES ARRIVAL TO COINCIDE W/ TRUMP'S HORMUZ DEADLINE: WSJ Funny how that works. Anyway, it always seemed weird that he would set a deadline for early in the trading week. He must have become too excited about sending a banger tweet lol.

@Sanctuary_Bio Yup, just like before the war x.com/Faytuks/status…

@MaxJacobsCFA it's pretty clear that anything Trump says on this matter is off the cuff. Now, more than ever, actions speak louder than words.

Basically neither our military nor our allies were ready for the 48 hour deadline so Trump made some shit up to create a delay.

@Sanctuary_Bio Basically whipsaw city for the tourists trying to trade the macro

Since President Trump revealed contacts with the Islamic Republic, we’re seeing something very telling inside Iran: chaos at the top. Regime officials are either turning on each other, pointing fingers, accusing one another of negotiating with the United States or in their own media and social platforms, they’re warning against character assassination of figures like Ghalibaf or Rouhani, because suspicion is spreading inside the regime itself. Some are even calling for arrests or worse. Others are publicly shaming officials, accusing them of secret talks. This is the atmosphere on the Islamic Republic’s side of social media. Total panic.

Very few people in the oil market & stock market adjacent spaces want to accept that globalization is dead for oil. We now have regional markets based on oil grades used, based on regional refinery capacity, & the world shortage of tanker hulls due to UN Carbon regulations. Download this infographic that explains the issue.⬇️

@Sanctuary_Bio Terrible.

@MaxJacobsCFA ATC messed up. x.com/AZ_Intel_/stat…

Dude, that's terrible. What idiot decided to cut off a jet plane while it was landing?

Atlanta Airport no longer gives updates on TSA wait times. Just this message

Predictable

Wouldn’t be shocked if there were no discussions, he just needed an out to the 48 hour deadline.

The bond market made him chicken out again

The conference was set for tomorrow when Trump's ultimatum expires No doubt that the ME is on edge for the reprisals for such an attack Another thing to watch: Kann reported this weekend that the Houthis might join the war on Monday. That would rattle the market even further.

💯

I didn’t expect The Four Loves by C.S. Lewis to hit so hard..

They say nicer things about dead dictators