Dave

Revenue = transactions × fee per tx. Transactions are at ATH (~150M/day, up from ~100M at the jan '25 peak). so fee per tx collapsed ~97%, not usage. What died was the priority fee auction, memecoin snipers and MEV bots bidding up blockspace. Remove that flow and the congestion premium evaporates even as real usage grows. Meanwhile stablecoin supply went $5B → $17.5B and DAA is climbing back toward 5M+. The chain is monetizing less per unit of activity because the activity shifted from speculation to settlement. That's a business model transition, not an expired narrative. Bearish for anyone who priced SOL off peak REV. Bullish for anyone actually building payment rails or other actually useful projects on it. Apply Metcalfes Law to value the network because on an L1 SCP all active addresses will pay the tx fee, even if it's not for high priority. Data from @artemis

El mejor regalo 🎁 de cumpleaños 🤩

IMAGE 1: If #bitcoin breaks down to our target at 48k, #solana should be entering it's own bear bottom range as well. This sits between our Bear Bottom Hunter signals (green arrows) between 78.5 and 44.7 USD which forms the bottom range seen in the image below. Previous bear bottom signals gave us essentially perfect opportunities to buy the deep-end of the bear. Liquidations on $SOL end around 47 USD and confluences with a sizeable buy order block. (blue area) IMAGE 2: But it all comes down to Bitcoin and where it bottoms. Bitcoins Realized price is 54k and bear bottoms tend to come in just below that, while the CVDD on BTC sits on 47.4k right now and we have never bottomed below the CVDD line. The MVRV-Z score also suggests further downtrend on $BTC which lines up perfectly with the bottom box. Rainbow chart, CBBI, LTHRP and other onchain models all suggest we're pretty close to a bottom but not there just yet. - Hence 48k BTC, 48 dollar SOL is in the cards.

You’ll hear people talk about ‘the end of the fiat system’. And it’s nonsense. ‘Dropping the gold standard’ was simply the end of convertibility of gold to dollars at a fixed ratio. The reasons for doing that were sound. The US economy was doing better than the European economies that were pegged to the dollar, which in turn was pegged to gold. This basically gave underperforming currencies that weren’t worth the pegged value an opportunity to get cheap gold. So they started draining the US gold reserves and would have completely collapsed the US economy if it was allowed to continue. The dollar is backed by the US economy, the US military, and the petrodollar. The US basically said “use our currency or we’ll bomb the shit out of you”. Which is what we’ve been seeing for the last 50 years. You don’t have to store wealth in dollars. In fact pretty much every rich person on the planet doesn’t store wealth in dollars over extended periods of time. So the gold standard never ‘ended’, you always had the choice to use gold as a store of value and transactional medium. All that changed was the peg of that particular asset to the dollar. Because the dollar has been worth progressively less over the years. Anyone who earns money in dollars got screwed. Anyone who stored their money in dollars got screwed. That doesn’t make the dollar worthless because percentage returns are absolute. 5% interest is 5% interest. If you’re a financial institution you don’t care about the value of the underlying asset because it isn’t your money, it’s your customers money. You just pay them less in interest than you’re making from the asset. The Japan carry trade was built around the fact that interest on Yen was effectively zero, and so the only risk was the yen depreciating. If the Yen drops 5% but you’re using that to invest in assets that give you 10%… then you’re making money. Borrowing dollars is just a more expensive carry trade, if you can consistently make more than your interest costs then you make money. As long as other people are willing to finance you for a relatively low interest rate then you can continue to run a budget deficit. But when that belief collapses that you’ll get a return, then that demand for the debt disappears and interest rates rise, because you have to bribe people with higher and higher rates to get them to give you money. It’s just risk adjusted mathematics. The US can’t ’erase the debt’ because that requires telling the financial institutions that run your economy ‘fck you you’re not getting paid what we promised to pay you’. If that was the case then everybody with dollar debt would sell that debt at any price immediately. People wouldn’t buy it no matter what the interest rate. And so interest rates would go vertical and the dollar would lose all credibility overnight. The only way you can avoid defaulting on that debt is to print your way out… and there’s a hyperinflationary spiral that can’t be escaped. Tokenizing assets doesn’t change any of this. It just increases the availability of individuals and institutions to buy them. If those markets are priced in dollars and the markets are priced in dollars, then that increases dollar demand within the system at the expense of foreign currencies. It’s just using the US dollar position as top dog to maintain that position at the expense of other countries ability to borrow in their own currency and maintain the value of their own currency. Which is just an extension of the existing system where emerging economies are forced to transact in dollars anyway. #crypto #macroeconomics

@CryptoTalksPod 😨 he’s forcing a move in the markets for tomorrow

Thought this was fake, but it isn't. #potus

🚨Google just dropped a significant warning: ⚠️ Quantum computing could crack Bitcoin's cryptography sooner than the timeline most people had in mind, with the resources required falling 20x faster than expected. This isn't FUD to dismiss, it's a legitimate long-term protocol risk and the kind of thing @LynAldenContact has already been flagging in her work. That said, the 2029 transition window Google is preparing for gives the #Bitcoin developer community real runway to implement post-quantum cryptographic upgrades, and this network has a track record of adapting under pressure. The bigger question is whether the upgrade coordination happens fast enough across custodians, exchanges, and cold wallets. Keep an eye on this one, because the technical threat is real even if the timeline is still measured in years, not months. #Google whitepaper: quantumai.google/static/site-as… Source article: theblock.co/post/395814/go… Do you consider this a major threat, or are you confident that dev's will sort out this issue?

If you're the mother who was reading Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone aloud to your child on the LNER train from London to Edinburgh yesterday, one of my grown up children was listening and says you did the voices brilliantly❤️🥹

Inzaghi, Buffon, Nesta, Abbiati and Toldo 🇮🇹

Born and raised Nerazzurri 🖤💙

Nati e cresciuti Nerazzurri 🖤💙

🇧🇷🇮🇹🖤💙

Funny how something as simple as "Productive Discussions" in politics can have massive effects on #Bitcoin isn't it? 1 phrase & Bitcoin explodes.

"Metalheads are all violent and dark." Metalheads: we want SpongeBob!