AuAgDonken
155 posts

AuAgDonken
@Megadonken
Silver, Gold & Uranium stocks. Hunting 25x minimum upside in 5y (miners). High-conviction tech & hidden rockets. Global macro. Riding the commodity super-cycle.
Sweden Katılım Şubat 2025
57 Takip Edilen69 Takipçiler

“No games!!! Watch what’s next on your favorite subject!” - President Donald J. Trump
The White House@WhiteHouse
“Tonight, at my direction, brave American forces and the Armed Forces of Nigeria flawlessly executed a meticulously planned and very complex mission to eliminate the most active terrorist in the world from the battlefield. Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, second in command of ISIS…” - President Trump
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GOLD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) – The Generational Bull Run
Buy Zone: $4,350 – $4,500 (Current Price: $4,540)
2026 Target: $6,000 (Before a major corrective drop)
Long-Term Target: $10,000+ (5-Year Macro Horizon)
Risk Rating: 4/10 (For spot Gold) | 8/10 (For the hyper-leveraged miners)
The Technical Roadmap (The Chart)
The weekly spot gold chart is putting on a absolute masterclass. After a parabolic surge peaking near $5,600 earlier this year, Gold has pulled back into a textbook weekly $4,300 – $4,600 Buy Zone.
This consolidation is incredibly healthy, building a massive structural launchpad. The immediate pathway points directly toward $6,000 before the end of 2026. However, keep your emotions in check: hitting $6,000 will likely trigger a massive, volatile drop to shake out late retail buyers before the macro train leaves the station toward the $10,000+ ultimate long-term target.
Why Gold Miners Are the Ultimate Alpha Vehicle
While owning physical gold protects your purchasing power, the real generational wealth-building mechanism right now is Gold Mining Stocks.
Miners provide massive, asymmetric operational leverage to the underlying commodity. When the spot price of gold rises, a miner's fixed operational costs (AISC) stay relatively flat, causing their net cash flows and earnings per share (EPS) to expand exponentially.
The Leverage Math: If a miner has an AISC of $1,800, their net margin at $4,500 gold is $2,700. When gold hits the $6,000 target, that margin skyrockets to $4,200. That is pure, unadulterated profit flowing directly to the bottom line.
The 25x Opportunity: Because the broader stock market still hasn't fully woken up to this sector, high-quality junior and micro-cap miners are trading at absurdly compressed valuations. If you pick the right, de-risked junior producers, the math supports a clear 25x+ upside potential within the next 5 years as capital rotates away from overvalued tech into hard assets.
The Asymmetric Verdict
Do not chase the green candles. Accumulate heavily inside this current $4,300 – $4,500 structural buy zone. Use spot gold as your directional compass, but deploy your capital into unloved, high-margin gold miners to capture the true exponential upside of this supercycle. The trend is your friend until $10k.

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$SAAB-B (Saab AB Class B) – The Ultimate Defense Pivot.. (Requested analysis)
Buy Zone: 450 SEK – 480 SEK (Current Price: 482.75 SEK)
Target Price (Tp): 770 SEK – 810 SEK (~1.6x upside)
Risk Rating: 5/10 (Low structural risk, highly visible growth)
The Technical Execution (The New Chart)
The updated weekly chart is clean. The asset has shed its short-term speculative foam, completing a textbook correction right into the 440 – 480 SEK Buy Zone.
This zone is backed by major multi-month structural support. The current consolidation represents a standard retest of previous breakout levels before launching the next major leg up. The price pathway lays out a clear, macro-backed projection toward the 770 – 810 SEK Target.
The Fundamental Powerhouse (Fresh Q1 2026 Data)
The recent technical dip is a pure market gift. Saab's underlying operational reality has never been stronger:
Monster Earnings Power: Saab's Q1 2026 report delivered a blowout 23.6% organic sales growth (hitting 19.2 billion SEK) with EBIT surging 32% to 1.9 billion SEK. Scaled production is rapidly driving up operating margins to a clean 10%.
Massive Backlog Security: The company is sitting on an astronomical 274 Billion SEK order backlog. This multi-year pipeline ensures immense revenue predictability through 2027 and beyond.
Unstoppable Global Demand: New product rollouts—like the upgraded Bolide 2 missile for the RBS 70 NG and the new Carl-Gustaf anti-tank rounds—combined with the newly formed naval domain alliance with PGZ Group, establish Saab as a leading prime contractor for European re-armament.
The Asymmetric Verdict
While short-term sentiment dragged the stock down 23% from its highs, Inderes and major institutions are aggressively upgrading Saab to an Overweight stance. You are looking at a market leader with double-digit growth across all business units and a near-infinite order funnel. Loading up in this structural buy zone is the premier asymmetric play in the defense sector for the next 12–24 months.

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@Investeraren @BomanAlexander Ska man kanske byta.. börjar tröttna på avanza
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Vår vd @BomanAlexander kittlar våra finansiella tastebuds på LinkedIn genom att säga att nästa stora produktnyhet kommer på onsdag… 😈🙌🏼 Undra vad det kan vara! #PrataPengar #Finanstwitter

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@Investoratpeace @aleabitoreddit nah i just need to get to 5m impressions..
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@Megadonken @aleabitoreddit You missed loading the shares, didn’t you?
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$SIVE is now aiming to become the next $LITE, a US photonics giant.
They're re-centering their board around US executives + US photonics.
So the core board are now: US $GFS Executives and $CITI Executives, with the company run by UC Berkeley grads and $LITE executives.
The 3 members leaving were local Swedish/EU.
This is just a shift in strategy from focusing on developing local Swedish Semi environments:
To dominating the US/global photonics market. I'm not trying to discredit their service/background.
But in my view to focus around US/global photonics markets, it's likely optimal to have more US executives.
But they should all be proud for helping make $SIVE what it is today.
Selo@Selooo79
@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on the board members leaving $SIVE ?
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$ASTOR (Scandinavian Astor Group AB) – The Next Defense Tech Multi-Bagger. (requested analysis)
Buy Zone: 14SEK – 18 SEK (Current Price: 21.82 SEK)
Target 2028: 70 SEK – 80 SEK (~3.5x upside)
Risk Rating: 7/10 (M&A execution & integration)
The Technical Setup (The Chart):
The weekly chart shows a beautiful cyclical accumulation pattern. After peaking aggressively during its initial hype phase, the stock has undergone a long, healthy correction to bleed out weak hands.
It is now sitting right at the top of the 14 – 18 SEK Buy Zone. This consolidation base serves as a launching pad. The blue impulse pathway outlines a structural multi-year breakout, aiming for a 70 – 80 SEK Target by 2028.
Okay now The Fundamental Tailwind:
The chart's technical targets are completely backed by explosive fundamental growth in the Defense Tech (Electronic Warfare & Radar Jamming) sector:
The Official 2028 Target: Management has committed to reaching 2,500 MSEK in Revenue with a ≥15% EBITDA margin, driven by an aggressive M&A roll-up strategy and massive backlog demand from NATO nations. (The management are confident about reaching the target)
The Step-by-Step Math Blueprint
Here is exactly how the company's official guidance mathematically proves the chart's 70 – 80 SEK target is fundamentally justified.
The Inputs:
2028 Target Revenue: 2,500 MSEK
EBITDA Margin: 15%
Estimated Future Shares: 80,000,000 (conservatively adjusted for future M&A share dilution)
Sweden Corporate Tax Rate: 20.6%
The Calculations:
Official EBITDA: 2,500 MSEK × 15% = 375 MSEK EBITDA
Operating Profit (EBIT): 375 MSEK - 100 MSEK (estimated D&A) = 275 MSEK EBIT
Net Profit After Tax: 275 MSEK × 0.794 (20.6% tax deducted) = 218.35 MSEK Net Profit
Earnings Per Share (EPS): 218.35 MSEK / 80,000,000 shares = 2.73 SEK EPS
Deriving the 70 – 80 SEK Chart Target:
In a global re-armament supercycle, high-growth defense tech companies commanding proprietary electronic warfare tech easily trade at premium multiples.
A 26x P/E multiple on 2.73 SEK EPS = 71 SEK
A 29x P/E multiple on 2.73 SEK EPS = 80 SEK

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Nobody is talking about the $SoFi SEN network
$1 trillion in volume

The Insider@insiderinvests
$SoFi is building the SoFi Exchange Network
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$SOMA.V (Soma Gold Corp) – The Undervalued Gold Rocket
Buy Zone: 0.80 – 0.90$ (cad)
(Current Price: C$0.93)
2026 Base Target: C$5.00 (~5.4x upside)
2026 Exit Run-Rate Target: C$7.10 (~7.6x upside)
Long-Term Target: C$15.00+
Risk Rating: 7/10 (Colombia jurisdiction risk)
What is Soma Gold? Soma Gold is a Canadian junior gold producer operating high-grade underground mines and two fully-permitted milling facilities (El Bagre and El Limon) in Antioquia, Colombia. Unlike standard exploration juniors that constantly dilute shareholders to burn cash, Soma is an active, cash-flowing producer with millions of dollars in heavy infrastructure already fully paid for and operating.
The Targets: 23,489 oz gold guided for 2026, scaling to a 33,756 oz annualized exit run-rate by December.
On-Site Catalysts: New XRT ore-sorting tech is already on-site for a Q3 launch to instantly boost mill efficiency and crash costs.
Production Ramping NOW: The high-grade Aurora mine is fully permitted and starting production this May/June. Escondida (9 g/t grade) and Diamantina mines restart this summer to completely fill the processing plants.
The Step-by-Step Math
The Baseline Inputs: 117M shares | USD/CAD FX: 1.36 | Colombia Tax/Royalty: 35% (Soma keeps 65%) | Gold: $4,600/oz | AISC: $1,800/oz
Step 1: Net Margin$4,600 Gold - $1,800 AISC = $2,800 USD/oz profit before tax.
Step 2: Path A - 2026 Base Target (23,489 ounces)
Gross Profit: 23,489 oz × $2,800 = $65.7M USD
Net Profit (65% after-tax × 1.36 FX): 58.1M CAD
EPS: 58.1M CAD / 117M shares = C$0.50 per share
Fair Value (10x P/E): C$5.00
Step 3: Path B - 2026 Exit Run-Rate (33,756 ounces)
Gross Profit: 33,756 oz × $2,800 = $94.5M USD
Net Profit (65% after-tax × 1.36 FX): 83.5M CAD
EPS: 83.5M CAD / 117M shares = C$0.71 per share
Fair Value (10x P/E): C$7.10
The Asymmetric Verdict
At $0.93 (Cad), the market prices Soma as if it will only generate a tiny C$0.09 EPS. The mathematical reality shows that hitting baseline targets generates C$0.50 EPS. You are buying a cash-flowing producer right as its production profile doubles into a historic gold bull market.

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I only came to Japan to do first person DD on Harmonic Drive (6324) and Towa (6315).
Not sure what everyone else is doing in the evenings there…

Flood@ThinkingUSD
Who wants to go out in Japan tonight on me
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@Megadonken @SiversSemicond And for a social media team that doesn’t use AI generated pics😅
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At Sivers Semiconductors, we develop both #photonics and #wireless technologies for connectivity and sensing across #AI data centers, #5G, and #SATCOM applications, with a focus on performance, and efficiency.
Explore the Sivers portfolio 👉 sivers-semiconductors.com

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