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Meps 🦇🔊
5.5K posts
Meps 🦇🔊
@Mepslol
Playing cards sometimes. 👨🌾 $ETH already won (years ago) DegenScore: 460 Exploring polymarket APY strats atm
Katılım Ekim 2015
1.3K Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
@Raw_Combat_ Was throwing her on the ground really necessary?
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The sound of her skull smashing the concrete💀
Atlanta woman hit man parked at red light when confronted she pulled out a pistol
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@tsybka @PolymarketTrade nobody caring about a virus is no argument for why the chanceis too high, no?
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Hantavirus pandemic - just another fairy tale for the gullible.
The market is sitting at 8c; at one point it hit a crazy 32c - LOL.
Who knows what those betting YES are thinking, but the fact is, in an era where wars are starting, no one really cares about viruses.
Right now, the chance of dying from a random missles or drone is higher than from some virus pushed on the masses.
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IRAN TRUMP ISRAEL INFORMATION ALERT!!!!!
Trump just announced that starting Monday he will escort ships hours after saying Iran offer is unacceptable.
The market(oil future) has taken this as really positive but I think the market is completely wrong.
Trump just gave an ultimatum to Iran, either let the ship
pass or its war.
Boxer is 3 days away.
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So Vitalik is probably cluing in to the fact that smart contracts haven't meaningfully achieved anything useful that btc hasn't.
Does he become a laser-eyed maxi? Or does he accept that eth should get away from stables and staking yield to embrace memetics as the rare jpg chain?
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The strait is still closed.
At the same time, tensions are rising regarding a possible resumption of the war, which could begin in the coming days.
As NO prices increase, I continue to close my position, selling another 10k shares at 80c.
Essentially, Monday–Tuesday is “judgment day” for YES holders.
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@tsybka @PolymarketTrade it only has to go to half the pre war traffic tho (60 ships a day) still probably a winning bet
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I bought 10k NO shares at 76c that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by the end of April.
Recently, Trump claimed that on some day 34 tankers passed through the strait, which is an outright lie. But degens are incapable of analyzing - they blindly believe everything they see.
At the moment, there is not a single reason why traffic could return to pre-war levels.
Negotiations will drag on, and we are most likely heading toward further escalation.
Trump wouldn’t just send additional troops to the Middle East for no reason - he’s trying to buy time.
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A community immune to aknowleding problems is certain to fail
BTC will get flipped
Andrew@AP_Abacus
One week later and the ‘quantum is a material threat to Bitcoin’ has turned out to be a .eth psyop. Comical.
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Bitcoin is done.
With their community they will NEVER get quantum resistant in time.
They ignore the problem, just as they ignore the security problem.
Until it is too late for both cases.
Justin Drake@drakefjustin
Today is a monumentous day for quantum computing and cryptography. Two breakthrough papers just landed (links in next tweet). Both papers improve Shor's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA and elliptic curve cryptography. The two results compound, optimising separate layers of the quantum stack. The results are shocking. I expect a narrative shift and a further R&D boost toward post-quantum cryptography. The first paper is by Google Quantum AI. They tackle the (logical) Shor algorithm, tailoring it to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum signatures. The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes. I'm grateful to have joined as a late paper co-author, in large part for the chance to interact with experts and the alpha gleaned from internal discussions. The second paper is by a stealthy startup called Oratomic, with ex-Google and prominent Caltech faculty. Their starting point is Google's improvements to the logical quantum circuit. They then apply improvements at the physical layer, with tricks specific to neutral atom quantum computers. The result estimates that 26,000 atomic qubits are sufficient to break 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. This would be roughly a 40x improvement in physical qubit count over previous state-of-the-art. On the flip side, a single Shor run would take ~10 days due to the relatively slow speed of neutral atoms. Below are my key takeaways. As a disclaimer, I am not a quantum expert. Time is needed for the results to be properly vetted. Based on my interactions with the team, I have faith the Google Quantum AI results are conservative. The Oratomic paper is much harder for me to assess, especially because of the use of more exotic qLDPC codes. I will take it with a grain of salt until the dust settles. → q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key. While a cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) before 2030 still feels unlikely, now is undoubtedly the time to start preparing. → censorship: The Google paper uses a zero-knowledge (ZK) proof to demonstrate the algorithm's existence without leaking actual optimisations. From now on, assume state-of-the-art algorithms will be censored. There may be self-censorship for moral or commercial reasons, or because of government pressure. A blackout in academic publications would be a tell-tale sign. → cracking time: A superconducting quantum computer, the type Google is building, could crack keys in minutes. This is because the optimised quantum circuit is just 100M Toffoli gates, which is surprisingly shallow. (Toffoli gates are hard because they require production of so-called "magic states".) Toffoli gates would consume ~10 microseconds on a superconducting platform, totalling ~1,000 sec of Shor runtime. → latency optimisations: Two latency optimisations bring key cracking time to single-digit minutes. The first parallelises computation across quantum devices. The second involves feeding the pubkey to the quantum computer mid-flight, after a generic setup phase. → fast- and slow-clock: At first approximation there are two families of quantum computers. The fast-clock flavour, which includes superconducting and photonic architectures, runs at roughly 100 kHz. The slow-clock flavour, which includes trapped ion and neutral atom architectures, runs roughly 1,000x slower (~100 Hz, or ~1 week to crack a single key). → qubit count: The size-optimised variant of the algorithm runs on 1,200 logical qubits. On a superconducting computer with surface code error correction that's roughly 500K physical qubits, a 400:1 physical-to-logical ratio. The surface code is conservative, assuming only four-way nearest-neighbour grid connectivity. It was demonstrated last year by Google on a real quantum computer. → future gains: Low-hanging fruit is still being picked, with at least one of the Google optimisations resulting from a surprisingly simple observation. Interestingly, AI was not (yet!) tasked to find optimisations. This was also the first time authors such as Craig Gidney attacked elliptic curves (as opposed to RSA). Shor logical qubit count could plausibly go under 1K soonish. → error correction: The physical-to-logical ratio for superconducting computers could go under 100:1. For superconducting computers that would be mean ~100K physical qubits for a CRQC, two orders of magnitude away from state of the art. Neutral atoms quantum computers are amenable to error correcting codes other than the surface code. While much slower to run, they can bring down the physical to logical qubit ratio closer to 10:1. → Bitcoin PoW: Commercially-viable Bitcoin PoW via Grover's algorithm is not happening any time soon. We're talking decades, possibly centuries away. This observation should help focus the discussion on ECDSA and Schnorr. (Side note: as unofficial Bitcoin security researcher, I still believe Bitcoin PoW is cooked due to the dwindling security budget.) → team quality: The folks at Google Quantum AI are the real deal. Craig Gidney (@CraigGidney) is arguably the world's top quantum circuit optimisooor. Just last year he squeezed 10x out of Shor for RSA, bringing the physical qubit count down from 10M to 1M. Special thanks to the Google team for patiently answering all my newb questions with detailed, fact-based answers. I was expecting some hype, but found none.
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By far the best piece I have read on U.S. strategic options in Iran.
John Spencer@SpencerGuard
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Iranian regime NO fall by April 30 is another giga bond.
Over 100% APY for the position, in which I don’t see even 0.01% risk (that would be in the realm of Armageddon).
But as I said earlier, a reasonable entry into this position would be if a ground invasion of Iran begins. Degens will gladly provide a better price for this event.
📌Market: polymarket.com/event/will-the…
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also predicted isreal wants usa and iran to destroy ech others military... because isreal profits of a weaker USA (somehow lol)
predicted iran war will ge about water, and iran will win it. both are insane
predicted USA will randomly airdrop 100k troops to iran and get htem stuck there. making them go all in because of sunk cost falacy (he loves throwing arround key words)
talks about gametheroy wihtout ever doing any actual gametheory
predicted iran will kill said 100k soldiers using suicide bombers (if he means planes, LOL the are all gone day2, and humans makes even less sense against a army)
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@Mepslol @DCinvestor he predicted both venezuela and iran and was right about much of the darker shit revealed in the files before they were released
definitely a touch of sino propoganda and some faulty views but dude is eerily accurate at predicting the future
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so let me get this straight
the international pedo satanist ch*ld r*pist cabal
is drawing us into a religious fundamentalist war to usher in the end of days
have i got this right??
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@CulperResearch @RemindMe_OfThis in 6 months. those guys should not have jobs
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NEW: We are short Ether $ETH, and ETH-linked securities, incl. $BMNR.
We think ETH tokenomics are impaired following the December 2025 Fusaka upgrade. Vitalik knows it and is selling, while $ETH's most ardent bull, Tom Lee, is throwing good money after bad.
$ETH is going lower.
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@scupytrooples @DCinvestor this guy has some horrible takes. justhappened to be right once there
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There will be a temporary ceasefire within next 45 days. The GCC cannot withstand this pressure for much longer. The US military will mostly exit the region. The popularity rate is too low to mobilise ground troops.
The next wave of conflict will be ignited by skirmishes in the nearby areas, eg Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, and Bahrain. This time it triggers a proper Iran-Israel war that lasts at least five years.
Nuclear weapon use on inhabited sites won’t happen, but Iran will achieve nuclear capabilities. Eventually peace is reached because of mutually assured destruction guarantees. Both Israel and Iran will have substantially larger territories at the end and both sides will claim victory. The war will not be later remembered as WW3 but will have a different name in each country.
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@DBonde2285 @GloOouD well god wont do shit, if anything humans have to stop it
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Well, at least he died with a smile on his face, perhaps remembering that now his family would receive Lada, or at least a sack of potatoes.
Work of the 🇺🇦414th USF Brigade «Birds of Magyar»
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@steveodwyer @Liv_Boeree Ever asked yourself why the iranian people are cheering in the streets right now?
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@Liv_Boeree I’ve held off on replying the last few years as you’ve descended into being a monstrously disgusting warmonger but this is a new low. Thank god those 80+ schoolgirls in Minab were preemptively “liberated” this morning. Millions might die! We’ve reached an emotional rock top!
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From the shortsighted strategies re: Anthropic, to the longsighted liberation of Iran, the last 48 hours was a helluva emotional swing 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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The most tilting stage of the market will be when people form narratives for why DeFi prices dropped.
CEOs, devs, and lawyers will all be blamed. But really the community was too euphoric and let market caps grow far too large. Cool ideas but they may not all be 11 figure ideas
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