Matt.not_ai
4.8K posts

Matt.not_ai
@MetaverseMatt
“Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions.” -Albert Einstein on #BTC
Sunny, FL Katılım Ekim 2021
708 Takip Edilen440 Takipçiler

@GoingParabolic Wow, price is responding well to this “news”!
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@ElitzaVasileva April 1 can’t get here soon enough. Can’t wait to never see these types of posts again.
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If you want to go viral on X, it’s actually pretty simple:
→ Quit your 9-5 and announce you’re all-in on indie hacking
→ Buy a MacBook and ask what you should install first
→ Book a one-way ticket to Southeast Asia to follow your dreams
→ Get your first paying customer and post your revenue dashboard
→ Launch your first iOS app and talk about how nervous you are about approval
→ Get rejected by the App Store (extra reach if it happens multiple times)
→ Ask pointless things like which AI tool people would delete forever
→ Work on a Friday/Saturday night and post a laptop pic about “the grind”
→ Share your monthly expenses in whatever country you’re in
That’s it. That’s the formula.
Follow me for more groundbreaking growth strategies.

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@crypto_banter Buy @Starlink and you won’t have this problem.
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@LawrenceLepard Oof. Now I see why they say not to try and time the market.
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@BTC_broo One look at this guy, and you know he’s making stuff up.
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@cryptomanran Nah, you can’t time these things. Expect a Green Day and some bullish news about China.
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$MSFT the last time this lost weekly MA 200 following a sustained uptrend, it went sideways for 11+years


Cheds Trading@BigCheds
$MSFT Microsoft - IF it closes the week here, will be first weekly close below SMA 200 since 2012
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5 years in and somehow I’m losing money still… had to lower rent to cheaper than the mortgage/taxes/insurance… squatters, insects, clogged sinks and toilets… property management fees increased… it’s about to all come tumbling down. 5 years of hard work gone. Have 2 full time jobs and still underwater. Yeah, I just woke up from that nightmare. Thank God.
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@StuffWorthSee Cleaning a 2 week old vacuum. Now show one that’s had 5 years of use.
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@MattWallace888 The nice thing about silk pajamas is that everyone can clearly see your micro-penis, and the your reason for overcompensating.
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Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year.
And fewer last year than the year before.
That should tell you everything you need to know.
2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history.
And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets.
France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%.
BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month.
The brand is in FREEFALL.
Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%.
And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings.
Let me say that differently:
Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns.
The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service."
So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday.
Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE.
The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight.
And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure.
So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale.
On 365 times earnings.
Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards.
I think this stock goes down 90% from here.
Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects.
A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.
I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something:
When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING.
I can see the seams.
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