Metrorail Ridership Forecaster
134 posts
@MetrorailModel
This account uses a custom model to forecast daily ridership on the Washington Metrorail and then compares to actual figures when published. Created by @dcadamb
Not sure how many people would be interested in this, but figured I'd share: I made a regression model to forecast ridership on the DC Metrorail. And I am pretty pleased how it turned out! If you want to see how the model is designed and learn some fun discoveries, 🧵 below:
On Tuesday, July 14, 2026 there are no special events in the Washington region but the Summer 🔴Red Line construction continues 🏗️. The Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 587,349 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 🔴Union Station (25,353)
On Monday, July 13, 2026 there is a concert at FedEx Field and the Summer 🔴Red Line construction continues 🏗️. The Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 530,806 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 🔴Union Station (22,916)
On Sunday, July 12, 2026 there are home Nationals and Mystics games and the Summer 🔴Red Line construction continues 🏗️. The Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 267,037 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 🟢Navy Yard-Ballpark (12,755)
On Saturday, July 11, 2026 there is a home Nationals game, a concert at FedEx Field and the Summer 🔴Red Line construction continues 🏗️. The Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 373,996 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 🟢Navy Yard (17,837)
The most accurate station prediction was 🔴Van Ness-UDC (0.32% error) & the least accurate station prediction was 🔵⚪️Morgan Blvd (-157.58% error). The station with the highest ridership was 🟢Navy Yard-Ballpark (20,974), as predicted
On Friday, July 10, 2026 there is a home Nationals game, a concert at FedEx Field and the Summer 🔴Red Line construction continues 🏗️. The Metrorail Ridership Model forecasts that there will be 586,703 passengers systemwide and the most used station will be 🟢Navy Yard (23,955)
