Metternich Briefs

A 19th-century business model 2.0.

@TheIcahnist A 19th-century business model 2.0.

Golden Age of Industrial Private Equity Outperforming returns are more likely to come from industrial and hard-asset businesses. The TransDigm playbook is the blueprint.

Straight-up medieval homage—publicly kneeling to the emperor to keep the alliance intact. Netanyahu’s presser last night: ‘Trump is the leader, I’m his ally.’ Classic damage control after media spun Israel as running the show and Trump griped about the gas field strike. Power dynamics 101.

@MarioNawfal Netanyahu’s presser last night: ‘Trump is the leader, I’m his ally.’ Classic damage control after media spun Israel as running the show and Trump griped about the gas field strike. Straight-up medieval homage—publicly kneeling to the emperor to keep the alliance intact.

🚨🇮🇱🇺🇸 Netanyahu: "I don't think any two leaders have been as coordinated as Trump and I. He is the leader, and I am his ally." x.com/TabzLIVE/statu…

@vtchakarova People interested in forever wars just don’t care. The only thing they say after twenty years of human suffering is that it was a mistake.

Twice and half the size of Ukraine, three times the size of France, nearly four times the size of Iraq and twice the size of Afghanistan.

“But I tell you that everyone will have to give account on the day of judgment for every empty word they have spoken. For by your words you will be acquitted, and by your words you will be condemned.” —Matthew 12:36-37

Market tumbling, so he needs to add some positive momentum after opening.

Ready to find an off-ramp?

@DanTalks1 It has always been like this since 1945. European strategic autonomy is a myth.

@MetternichBrief Obviously they're not going to actually help, it's the surrender that matters.

Trump graciously accepts the letter of surrender from the most arrogant people on earth.

Things in Iran are going from bad to worse, and there’s no easy way out. We must focus on de-escalation through realpolitik and serious major diplomatic channels. We need to stop this as soon as possible.

China and Russia don’t even have to move — they can just sit on the sidelines and wait. The Emperor miscalculated badly, probably still flying high how “easy” Venezuela felt. Now he’s in real trouble with no clean exit. Biggest problem is a lot of people in the West still think the world looks the same as it does from a DC office.

This is the main reason most Americans consistently misunderstand China 👇 The Head of WSJ in China just dropped an article arguing China was waiting for Trump to come to Beijing for a summit, but since Trump delayed the summit, it shows that the US "still sets the global agenda" Are you kidding me? Trump postponed his visit to China because he is deeply involved in a new Middle East war that he grossly underestimated. Trump and his cabinet literally said "we used Venezuela as a model for Iran" and thought he could sweep in, assassinate Iran's leader and ride off into the sunset as the big winner. But that plan completely backfired on Trump. Iran has retaliated by attacking US assets in neighboring gulf countries (something Trump admitted he didn't think Iran would do). Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz (again something Trump didn't think they would do) Now the Pentagon is asking for an additional $200 billion dollars to fight the Iran war, which friendly reminder is $20 billion dollars more than Biden spent in the Ukraine war. Trump postponed his visit to Beijing because he HAD no other option. The US went all in on Iran with ZERO plan and now have no idea how to exit this dumpster fire of a new war. All NATO allies have rejected Trump's invitation to join the war and the US finds itself alone on the global stage with only Israel supporting the war, which makes complete sense given that Israel convinced Trump to go to war for THEIR interests. Meanwhile China is mastering the art of waiting patiently and stacking wins. China is now seen as the more stable, reliable global leader and news flash: China doesn't need a summit with Trump to "cement" it's superpower status. China is already a superpower and dominates the most important fields of technology. Why does our journalists lie and try to spin the facts? Because when you are losing you have to publish articles that convince people the US is still winning. Meanwhile anyone who actually understands geopolitics can clearly see the US has embarked on another disastrous war campaign in the Middle East that has only resulted in the region being more unstable. Terrible and lazy journalism from WSJ. No wonder most Americans consistently don't understand China and it's position in the world today.

@WeTheBrandon And it would be very wise of them.

The Saudis will do nothing.

This is it. Not that propaganda nonsense that the Gulf countries were about to join the strikes.

@stevehou Yes. If there is a 10% sell-off, the Emperor will bring the whole Iran thing to a close in a few hours.

The fastest way for this war to end is a 10% sell off of the US stock market in a week just like Liberation day. The stock market is the economy, political legitimacy, and the most consensus symbol whether things are going well.

Europe is a permanent loser. How did we get there? Ideology, oppression of people, endless regulation, and much more.

Deterrence.

In 375 BC, the philosopher Plato may have predicted the crucifixion of Jesus Christ. “The perfectly just man will be considered unjust, while the unjust will appear just. […] The just man will be scourged, tortured, chained, his eyes will be burned out, and, after suffering all evils, he will be crucified.” - Plato (The Republic Book II, 361e–362a)

@Glenn_Diesen By now, the Gulf Cooperation Council nations have learned the hard way that U.S. security guarantees ultimately amount to nothing. When push comes to shove, they prove unreliable, hollow, and even counterproductive, leaving allies exposed rather than protected.

The US goes for massive escalation with the attack on the world's largest gas field, and then suggests to end such attacks. This tactic will not work. If Iran permits the US to decide when to escalate and de-escalate, its deterrence collapses and it will also lose the war. The energy infrastructure of the Gulf States will now burn and US escalation control remains a delusion.

By now, the Gulf Cooperation Council nations have learned the hard way that U.S. security guarantees ultimately amount to nothing. When push comes to shove, they prove unreliable, hollow, and even counterproductive, leaving allies exposed rather than protected. What comes next for them?