Martin the evil tuna

is sports betting luck or skill? i hypothesize it's ~70% skill / 30% luck to test it, im doing a public experiment on myself, starting with $20,000 and making it as big as possible until the end of the 2026 nba playoffs fully documented from beginning to end i’ve gone through the rollercoaster of being up a lot, giving so much of it back, taking breaks, then doing it all over again but after years of this, i’m pretty confident in my ability to understand the game of basketball and be right more than wrong. especially during playoffs, where more variables are known. i know ball 🏀 currently: 18-9 this year (all public) recently you saw the $10k to $100k challenge where we ran it up to $73k in 7 days before losing the final game (still walked away with $43k) this time, i’m extending the challenge to the end of the NBA playoffs, so i can move calmer, and simply try to play the game as best as i can: > only bet games i genuinely think i have an edge on > size units correctly > breathe between games > don’t let emotions take over this entire run will be done on @yeet massive shoutout to them for sponsoring the final video and this study, showing everything that goes on in the mind i’ve known the founding team for years and respect how transparent and unapologetically degen they are. as you know, me too. very grateful they’re letting me get creative with this because the real goal of the experiment is authenticity showing the highs, the lows, the confidence, the tilt, the psychology, the discipline, the mistakes no sugarcoating anything hopefully we end this with discipline to our rules and a sh*t ton more money than we started with we are in a very risk-on environment right now and it’s easy to get pushed past the edge into dangerous waters. one of my biggest priorities throughout all of this is to have fun while still approaching it responsibly truthfully, after this, i’ll probably retire from serious sports betting for a while which is exactly why i want to document every part of this one properly for you to see and analyze very excited for the documentary/video that comes out of this at the end as always, thank you for following along this wild internet journey with me the rules are in the 1st reply:

is sports betting luck or skill? i hypothesize it's ~70% skill / 30% luck to test it, im doing a public experiment on myself, starting with $20,000 and making it as big as possible until the end of the 2026 nba playoffs fully documented from beginning to end i’ve gone through the rollercoaster of being up a lot, giving so much of it back, taking breaks, then doing it all over again but after years of this, i’m pretty confident in my ability to understand the game of basketball and be right more than wrong. especially during playoffs, where more variables are known. i know ball 🏀 currently: 18-9 this year (all public) recently you saw the $10k to $100k challenge where we ran it up to $73k in 7 days before losing the final game (still walked away with $43k) this time, i’m extending the challenge to the end of the NBA playoffs, so i can move calmer, and simply try to play the game as best as i can: > only bet games i genuinely think i have an edge on > size units correctly > breathe between games > don’t let emotions take over this entire run will be done on @yeet massive shoutout to them for sponsoring the final video and this study, showing everything that goes on in the mind i’ve known the founding team for years and respect how transparent and unapologetically degen they are. as you know, me too. very grateful they’re letting me get creative with this because the real goal of the experiment is authenticity showing the highs, the lows, the confidence, the tilt, the psychology, the discipline, the mistakes no sugarcoating anything hopefully we end this with discipline to our rules and a sh*t ton more money than we started with we are in a very risk-on environment right now and it’s easy to get pushed past the edge into dangerous waters. one of my biggest priorities throughout all of this is to have fun while still approaching it responsibly truthfully, after this, i’ll probably retire from serious sports betting for a while which is exactly why i want to document every part of this one properly for you to see and analyze very excited for the documentary/video that comes out of this at the end as always, thank you for following along this wild internet journey with me the rules are in the 1st reply: