Michael. Z

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Michael. Z

Michael. Z

@MichaelZero10

Long-term investor. BSc in Economics, MSc in Corporate Finance. Equity Analyst with a Fundamental Analysis approach. I'm not a financial advisor.

Katılım Mart 2022
760 Takip Edilen5.8K Takipçiler
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
Portfolio Update – 05/10/2026👇🏻👀 • $NBIS– 18.3% ($27.41)🧑‍💻// Up 472%🟢 • $AMD – 11.0% ($112.6) 💻// Up 252%🟢 • $RMS – 10.8% (€1,698.06)📺// Down 2%🔴 • $SHOP – 8.1% ($57.98)📦// Up 90%🟢 • $FICO – 7.8% ($1,021.58)📒// Up 8%🟢 • $CRWD – 7.3% ($221.27)🔏// Up 121%🟢 • $NFLX – 6.0% ($17.25)📺// Up 346%🟢 • $ENPH – 5.0% ($32.35) 🌞// Up 10%🟢 • $DUOL – 4.8% ($173.33) 🧑‍🎓// Down 37%🔴 • $CELH – 3.9% ($21.98)🧃// Up 29%🟢 • $PALO – 3.7% ($145.09)🔏// Up 31% 🟢 • $TMDX – 3.5% ($56.97)💟// Up 4%🟢 • $DLO – 3.3% ($10.03)💳// Up 20%🟢 • $RDDT – 3.2% ($130.10)💻// Up 20%🟢 • $TTD – 3.2% ($31.31)💻// Down 26%🔴 • YTD Performance: +1.5%🟢 • YTD Nasdaq Comp Performance: +12.9%🟢 • Market Updates: - So far in 2026, investors are rewarding Three Big structural narratives: AI Infrastructure & Compute (i), Power, Energy & Electrification (ii), and Strategic Sovereignty (iii). - Investors increasingly believe AI is not a cycle anymore but a utility like backbone for the economy. - Multiple research reports now frame energy as the second derivative winner of AI. - Investors are rotating toward utilities and energy infrastructure because they benefit regardless of which AI model wins. - Finally, Equity Markets are heavily rewarding companies tied to national security, industrial policy, and supply-chain sovereignty. • Our view: - In 1999–2000, investors correctly identified that internet would transform the economy. - But they incorrectly identified which companies would capture the durable value, where margins would settle, and which parts would become commoditized. - Today’s equity market believes AI compute is scarce, power is scarce, and Data Centers are scarce. - But if supply catches up, returns compress, pricing power weakens, and capex becomes excessive. - Investors may currently be extrapolating scarcity too far into the future. - However, the largest long term value creation often migrates from infrastructure to applications, ecosystems, and business model transformation. - The eventual Multi Trillion Dollar Winners may not even exist yet. - Consequently, we are really cautious on these themes and are reasonably exposed. - This cautious approach explains why we are underperforming so far in 2026. • Recent Moves: 1. $UNH > $RMS - We fully liquidated our stake in $UNH to initiate a position in $RMS (~10% of our portfolio). - $UNH has partially recovered from recent lows but we think $RMS would offer much more upside potential at current level. - Recently market sentiment has turned negative on Luxury businesses due to the conflict in the Middle East. - However, we think $RMS is an exceptional business with high desirability of its products and strong pricing power. - Consequently we believe current valuation multiples are attractive, considering $RMS is trading at 21.60x EV/2026E EBITDA vs 29.62x on average over the last 5 years (~38% discount). 2. Simplification: $CORT, $EFL, $RBLX > $FICO - We simplified the portfolio by selling some positions, in which we had less conviction such as $CORT, $ELF, $RBLX, and building a new position in $FICO (~8% of our portfolio). - We believe $FICO is well positioned in the credit scoring market (~90% market share), and the business will be able to defend its market share. - Besides, in the future revenue might be less driven by prices considering the ongoing regulatory scrutiny but the credit scoring market is dynamic, and $FICO could continue to grow with more Scoring Volume. • Other Opportunities: - 🇺🇾 $MELI: Over the last few years investors have seriously rerated the stock from 27.90x EV/EBITDA in 2023 to 19.73x EV/EBITDA in 2026. This is one of the reason why $MELI Stock has barely appreciated over the same period while operating and cash flow metrics have improved. Today, we believe valuation has reset enough, and the stock is attractive for long-term investors. - 🇺🇸 $RBRK: Investors are back into Cybersecurity stocks following $FTNT's strong Earning Report. Rubrik stock is currently trading at 7.67x EV/2027 Sales with 22.09% revenue growth compared to 9.38x EV/2027 Sales with 10.66% revenue growth for $FTNT. Rubrik grows two times faster that $FTNT and could benefit from a rerating over the next few months. - 🇺🇸 $META: Today, market participants are expressing concerns about $META's capital expenditures, particularly its spending on AI infrastructure. Similarly in 2022 investors were selling $META stock due to massive investments made in the Meta Universe (at some point the stock was traded at $90). Over the following years $META Stock went up 6-7 fold. It has been a costly mistake to doubt Mark Zuckerberg. We believe the same thing is happening Today. - 🇮🇹 $RACE: Investors are overthinking about the ongoing war in the Middle East. In the short-term sales might be affected by the conflict but the demand for these iconic cars will be restored over the long-term. $RACE Stock is trading almost at a 5Y-Low in term of EV/EBITDA (Today at 17.2x vs 5Y-Low at 16.56x). Consequently, we believe the stock is attractive for long-term investors. How your portfolio is performing? 🤔
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Deep Value Investing
Deep Value Investing@DeepIceValue·
$FICO (+6.8%) global analytics software leader, today announced the results of a new analysis by independent actuarial firm Milliman, finding that FICO Score 10T is the most predictive credit score for evaluating first-time homebuyer mortgage risk, outperforming VantageScore 4.0. The findings are especially significant for the millions of Americans working to achieve the dream of homeownership, where the accuracy of the credit score a lender relies on directly shapes who gets approved and on what terms. The newly released analysis builds on Milliman's earlier research showing FICO Score 10T is the most predictive credit score for evaluating mortgage default risk. Milliman independently analyzed nearly 20 million mortgages from a major U.S. credit bureau, covering GSE, FHA, and overall mortgage loans from 2011 through 2023.
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
@JonErlichman What would be these results if we adjust this with the inflation rate % over the discussed period ? 🤔
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Jon Erlichman
Jon Erlichman@JonErlichman·
What $10,000 invested in these IPO’s is worth today: Walmart: $489 million Coca-Cola: $186 million McDonald's: $91 million Home Depot: $85 million Nvidia: $56 million Microsoft: $42 million Oracle: $41.7 million Amazon: $35 million Apple: $30 million Cisco: $19.7 million Disney: $17.3 million Adobe: $14.6 million AMD: $7.4 million Netflix: $7.3 million Costco: $6.3 million FedEx: $5 million Starbucks: $4 million Tesla: $3.7 million eBay: $3.6 million Target: $3.4 million Broadcom: $2.8 million Nike: $2.4 million Alphabet: $1.9 million Mastercard: $1.3 million
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
Quick Comparative Analysis🔎 We analysed 25 stocks across five different sectors: - (i) Luxury Goods ; - (ii) E-commerce ; - (iii) Cybersecurity ; - (iv) Subscription Platforms ; - (v) Transplantation ; Key findings using these data points🤓 1⃣ In the Luxury Goods Sector, Brunello Cucinelli seems to be an excellent pick, as the business grows faster than other competitors such as $LVMH for example, by generating similar operating margins, while it is trading at discount to $RACE or $RMS. - Finally, Brunello Cucinelli is a much smaller business than the other peers. - Therefore it could have more room to develop and expand over the long-term. 2⃣ In the e-commerce segment, $MELI Stock is the best pick, as the company is the fastest growing platform. - For example $MELI grows two times faster than $CPNG or $BABA, which is significant. - All these companies have similar Operating Margin, ranging between 10-13%. - Finally, the current multiple paid by investors to acquire $MELI Stock at 14.5x 2027 EV/EBITDA is reasonable considering its strong growth expectations. 3⃣ In the Cybersecurity sector, $ZS and $RBRK both look really attractive considering their low valuation multiples respectively at only 6.1x and 7.9x EV/2027 Sales. - Both businesses grow at similar pace than $CRWD ~19-22% but trade at significant discount. - $CRWD is trading at ~24.9x EV/Sales vs 7.9x for $RBRK and 6.1x for $ZS. 4⃣ $DUOL seems to be to the most interesting subscription platform at current level. - Even though revenue growth has slowed down over the last few quarters, the platform remains one of the fastest and most profitable in the market. - In this sample, only $NFLX is more profitable than $DUOL. - Besides, $DUOL has a strong Balance Sheet with $1.2 bn Net Cash Balance (~20% of the total market value). If an investor is Buying the Stock at $100, $20 would not be at risk to be lost. - Finally, the current multiple paid by investors to acquire $DUOL Stock at 11.2x 2027 EV/EBITDA is reasonable. 5⃣ In the Transplantation segment, $TMDX stock is appealing at current level. - Operating margin has contracted over the last few quarters but still aligned with other competitors such as $XVIVO. - Investors are expecting $XVIVO to grow 1.6x faster than $TMDX over the next few years but are ready to pay the stock 2.12x higher. - This does not make sense considering both businesses are generating similar operating margin. - Therefore, we believe $TMDX stock should perform better than $XVIVO at current level. Additional analysis: Linear Regression (see below): - X-axis (horizontal): Expected revenue growth (%). - Y-axis (vertical): EV/Sales multiple. - The line on the chart is the fair value trend based on growth expectations. - Given a company’s growth rate, what valuation multiple is typically applied by investors. - We have done this analysis for the Luxury Goods and Subscription platforms. - We can clearly see that Brunello Cucinelli ($BC) and $DUOL look well below the trend line and undervalued. - Would you like us to analyse another sector ?🤓
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
$MELI Stock could be valued at $3,086 by 2028😳 1⃣ FCF/share growth % is the main driver of Equity Value over the long-term We define FCF as the following: + Earnings Before Interest and Taxes - Corporate Taxes - Change in Working Capital (Inventories, accounts receivables / payables etc.) - Capital Expenditures Besides, we are considering the fully diluted shares to get to the FCF/share growth. Over the long-term, stock prices roughly this momentum. 2⃣ Interesting Facts for $MELI Stock - From Dec 2022 to Dec 2025, $MELI Stock progressed by ~34% on average (CAGR), while FCF/share grew by ~46% on average over the same period. - $MELI Stock gained less that previously anticipated as valuation multiples have contracted over the same period. Investors were ready to Buy the Stock at 28.0x EV/EBITDA, while this multiple has reduced to 18.5x in December 2025 (an average contraction of ~13%). - Slight Operation Margin contraction from 15% in 2023 to 11% in 2025 could explain partially this. 3⃣ Key Assumptions for the next few years - We assumed that $MELI could grow its revenue by ~24% over the next few years, which is significantly conservative, considering the business has been growing by 39% on average over the last four years. - EBIT Margin will be reduced by ~3.0% in 2026 due to current investments and would gradually normalize toward ~10% in 2028. - We have assumed ~30% effective income tax over the period, which is in line with historical financial statements. - Stable Capex and Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) at 4.1% and 2.8% respectively of Sales from 2026E onwards, which is just the average % observed over the last four years. - Indeed, we are assuming the asset base is increasing over the discussed period, as the business is making significant investments. - Change in Net Working Capital stable at 3.9% of Sales from 2025E onwards, in line with historical data points. - Please note that in our calculations of Working Capital we partially took into account customer funds from the Mercado Pago business, as this cash t is not fully discretionary, and much belongs economically to customers/merchants. - Finally we assumed that the Fully Diluted Shares will remain constant at 50.7M over the discussed period. 4⃣ Conclusion - Based on these assumptions we found that FCF/share could grow by 33% on average over the next three years. - By applying this growth to $MELI Stock price, we estimate that $MELI could worth $3,086 by 2028, which would imply ~100% upside potential at current level ($1,546: latest closing price). - Please note that we could have presented the capital structure dynamics to make the analysis even more accurate. Do you think $MELI Stock is significantly undervalued at the moment ? 🤔
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
- $MELI: e-commerce penetration sill low in south America, therefore the business has plenty of room to grow over the next few years. - $RMS: Hermes is not a traditional consumer business and is targeting only super wealthy clients. Over the long-term it should be alright. - $TMDX: margin pressure is temporary as the business is in an investment phase. - $HROW: current valuation completely disconnected from growth and margin expectations.
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Wolf of Harcourt Street
Wolf of Harcourt Street@wolfofharcourt·
Spent the past 18 months or so consolidating the portfolio. Now down to 13 names. Looking to add some new fresh ideas. What’s your best idea and why?
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
$ENPH: The New IQ9S‑3P Commercial Microinverter is a complete game changer😳 Weekly performance: +45%🟢 - The real driver of $ENPH Stock was not the recent Q1 Earnings. Indeed, its new solutions have completely changed Market sentiment. $ENPH opened U.S. pre‑orders for its IQ9S‑3P Commercial Microinverter, and the stock exploded. - Its IQ9S‑3P unit is built for high‑wattage solar panels and plugs straight into three‑phase commercial grids. The pre‑order structure lets customers “safe harbor” equipment ahead of federal tax credit deadlines. $ENPH is giving developers a way to lock in incentives now, which can pull demand forward. - Finally, the Management Team detailed a 1.25 MW IQ Solid‑State Transformer (SST) platform aimed at high‑density AI Data Centers, converting medium‑voltage AC into native 800V DC in one stage. Demos are expected in 2026, pilots in 2027, and volume shipments in 2028. Research analysts estimated that, if $ENPH captures just ~5% of the SST Market, the new platform could be worth about $20/share. - Will $ENPH Stock benefit from this AI Boom ? 🤔
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10

$ENPH: Enphase Energy Stock (-7.59%)🔴 - Today, $ENPH shares were sliding as investors reacted to a rival bidirectional GaN switch from Renesas Electronics, which promises a more efficient and simpler microinverter design that could erode $ENPH's technological edge. The news has raised fresh doubts about the company’s long‑term competitive moat in its core market. - Besides, sentiment is further hit by recurring class‑action lawsuit reminders over alleged inventory misstatements and the looming impact of expiring clean‑energy tax credits, which together heighten perceived legal and policy risks. - Broader solar‑sector unease, tied to major competitors shifting supply chains toward international equipment providers, is adding to the selling pressure on the stock. - Have a look at these details below.

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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
@10009nyny I would not say that. Scorpion said that $TMDX was literally a fraud and was getting disrupted by other businesses, which is not true. $TMDX Stock has dropped over the last few days, as investors did not like recent margin deterioration.
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Jay
Jay@10009nyny·
@MichaelZero10 Was Scorpion Capital right all along
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
$TMDX - Scorpion has blocked me😅 I don't understand, I have done nothing wrong. I never commented directly any of their posts. I have only shared public information, and my investment thesis. I thought we were free to share ideas on X.
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
Portfolio and Performance I will provide an update this weekend. Currently, the portfolio is mainly driven by only four stocks: $NBIS, $AMD, $CRWD, and $PALO, due to the extreme concentration of this equity market. Three themes seem to drive equity markets at the moment: (i) the AI value chain, (ii) Heavy assets and low obsolescence (HALO) businesses, and (iii) Energy companies. Anything not associated to these three themes get severely punished: software infrastructures, medical devices, credit services etc. It will be interesting to see if these themes will continue to drive equity markets over the next few months.
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10

Portfolio Update – 03/08/2026👇🏻👀 • $SHOP – 10.7% ($57.98)📦// Up 125%🟢 • $AMD – 10.4% ($112.6) 💻// Up 51%🟢 • $NBIS – 10.3% ($27.41)🧑‍💻// Up 193%🟢 • $NFLX – 7.6% ($17.25)📺// Up 413%🟢 • $TMDX – 7.5% ($56.97)💟// Up 101%🟢 • $UNH – 6.8% ($286.32)💟// Down 4%🔴 • $CRWD – 6.6% ($221.27)🔏// Up 82%🟢 • $ENPH – 6.2% ($32.35) 🌞// Up 24%🟢 • $CELH – 5.8% ($21.98)🧃// Up 74%🟢 • $DUOL – 4.7% ($173.33) 🧑‍🎓// Down 41%🔴 • $TTD – 4.5% ($31.31)💻// Down 4%🔴 • $ELF – 4.4% ($72.68)💄// Up 2%🟢 • $PALO – 3.3% ($145.09)🔏// Up 5%🟢 • $RDDT – 3.2% ($130.10)💻// Up 9%🟢 • $DLO – 3.1% ($10.03)💳// Up 3%🟢 • $CORT – 2.6% ($37.19)💟// Down 8%🔴 • $RBLX – 2.0% ($63.84)🎲// Up 1%🟢 • YTD Performance: -8.5%*🔴 • YTD Nasdaq Comp Performance: -3.7%🔴 * Please note that our Portfolio is denominated in Euro, and the U.S. Dollar is currently Up ~1% YTD against Euro. This great performance of the U.S. Dollar is improving our overall performance by ~1%. • Market Updates: - The U.S. - Israel war against Iran that began on Saturday, Feb 28th has worried investors about broader economic fallout. - On Friday, oil prices hit a psychologically important $90 a barrel for the first time in two years as Kuwait cut output. - Besides, U.S. job growth in February was much weaker than economists anticipated. - Consequently, investors believe the U.S. economy could experience a stagflation over the next few quarters. - Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by high inflation (currently driven by energy prices), stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment (currently at ~4.4%). - On the week, the Dow fell 3.0%, the S&P 500 lost 2.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.2%. • Next Few Weeks: - The U.S. - Israel war against Iran is probably the Major Risk for Equity Markets. We could imagine three possible scenarios. - Scenario 1: the Current/New Iranian Government would give up the country's nuclear ambitions and restore access to the Strait of Hormuz, so that Brent prices would fall below $70/bbl. - Scenario 2: there is only a temporary disruption between four to five weeks of Oil and Gas from the Gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE). Brent prices would stabilize around $80/bbl, and the impact on U.S. growth would be minimal. - Scenario 3: the worst-case scenario relies on a war that lasts. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and more attacks are damaging Oil & Gas facilities in the Gulf countries. Brent prices could rise around $120/bbl. A two-quarter halt of most Gulf oil supplies would set back U.S. growth by ~1% and push inflation up by ~1-1.5%, which is significant. • Recent Moves: $RDDT - We fully liquidated our stake in $ASML to initiate a position in $RDDT (~3% of our portfolio). - Indeed, $ASML is already mature with probably less upside potential than $RDDT. - Recently market sentiment has turned really negative on software stocks. - Consequently we believe current valuation multiples are attractive, as $RDDT is trading at 18.22x EV/2026E EBITDA for 83.01% growth over the same period. - Therefore, we wanted to take advantage of this investment opportunity. $RBLX - We built a new position in $RBLX (~2% of our portfolio). - We believe $RBLX has a unique business model. - The core of $RBLX is its game-development software called Roblox Studio, a free tool that enables people to quickly make a game. - There are competing gaming platforms from $U and Unreal Engine, but they more complicated and don’t come with a built-in audience. - Roblox Studio is the company’s unique asset that drives developers to the platform. - Consequently we believe $RBLX is attractive considering the platform’s long-term potential. • Other Comments: 🤓 - The Portfolio has experienced some volatility over the last few weeks as investors are trying to assess which software businesses would still be relevant in the future with the launch of new AI capabilities. - Our Portfolio has a lot of these businesses such as $SHOP, $CRWD etc. However, we still believe these businesses will get better in the future as they invest massively to include AI capabilities in their solutions. - The U.S. Dollar (YTD: +1%) is slightly hedging our Portfolio. Indeed global oil is traded in USD, when oil prices rise, countries buying oil must purchase more USD to pay for it. This increases demand for USD. - Recently, our 2026 Best Performing Stock $ENPH (+25% YTD) has started to give back some gains (1M: -20%), as inflation could be higher than anticipated in the U.S. with this current conflict in the Middle East. - The Investment thesis on $ENPH is not broken yet but the duration of this conflict will be key. How your portfolio is performing? 🤔

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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
$FTNT It was a great idea to add Fortinet last August.👇 $FTNT is recovering nicely, following the publication of strong earning results. It seems like investors are getting excited again about Cybersecurity stocks. $PANW, $CRWD, and $RBRK are getting some attention as well👀. $RBRK looks less advanced in its recovery and should offer some upside potential compared to the other stocks mentionned.🤓
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10

3. $FTNT : Fortinet • $FTNT is Down 17% YTD, including the 20% losses from last week after their Q2 Earnings Report. Q2 Results 🔴 • Sales reached $1.63bn in Q2 up 14% from last year. • Earnings Per Share landed at $0.64, ahead of the $0.59 that analysts were expecting • However $FTNT's guidance for Q3 came in well below estimates. Revenue is expected to land somewhere between $1.67-$1.73bn, which came in a touch under what Analysts were hoping for. • $FTNT's management pointed out a $400-$450m refresh opportunity in firewall products in November, but said that the business was 40%-50% through the 2026 upgrade cycle, suggesting future Sales of upgrade components and services could be smaller than expected. Is the Stock attractive at current level ?🔎 • $FTNT has delivered descent revenue growth over the last few years with growth fluctuating between 12-32% and this momentum is expected to continue. • Investors are too focused on near-term headwinds in the Cybersecurity space. Besides they are overstating the potential competition pressures that could face $FTNT in the future. • Current valuation is reasonable, as $FTNT is trading at 20.15x 2026 EV/EBITDA, which represents ~40% discount to $PANW (32.36x 2026 EV/EBITDA, while both businesses have similar growth expectations (~12-14%) and EBITDA Margins (~32-35%). • This does not make sense and inventors should rerate $FTNT Stock over the next few quarters. • Based on this analysis, we believe $FTNT is really attractive at current level.

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Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
@SergeyCYW Fair point Sergey! But if we push your approach further to its limits we would then present EV/Sales and revenue growth expectations ? Considering P/E include earnings momentum not relevant for early stage businesses. 🤓
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Sergey
Sergey@SergeyCYW·
@MichaelZero10 Agree, but profit growth forecasts for many early-stage SaaS companies can be triple-digit. Comparing profit growth is more meaningful for more mature companies.
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Sergey
Sergey@SergeyCYW·
Not all SaaS valuations are expensive. Looking at forward P/E vs NTM revenue growth gives a cleaner view of how the market is pricing expected growth across SaaS. $PLTR stands out as one of the fastest growers at roughly 62% expected growth, with forward P/E near 110x. $NET the biggest premium outlier: 29% growth paired with a forward P/E near 185x. $CRWD and $DOCN also screen rich relative to growth, both near the low-20s growth range but with forward P/E ratios close to 90x-100x. $SNOW and $SHOP still command strong premiums, showing the market is willing to pay up for platform quality and durability even in a tougher SaaS tape. On the other side, $APP and $ZETA look notable: both are among the faster growers on the chart, but their forward P/E ratios sit far below many higher-profile SaaS names. Market is pricing perceived durability, margin structure, narrative strength, and positioning into AI.
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
@wealthmatica VantageScore is probably the biggest challenger to $FICO, platform developed jointly by the credit bureaus and increasingly adopted in lending. And Equifax, Experian, TransUnion, they compete via analytics products.🤓
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Wealthmatica
Wealthmatica@wealthmatica·
@MichaelZero10 Greta question - out of curiosity- who are their core competitors through your lens?
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Wealthmatica
Wealthmatica@wealthmatica·
This must be one of the WIDEST MOAT stocks on the market… It’s been slaughtered. - FWD Multiple: 20x - Op Margin: 47% - FCF Yield: 3.2% This is a company going to do… - Revenue: ~18% YoY - FCF Margin: ~38% - EPS: 26% YoY Wow. $FICO
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Qualtrim@qualtrim

FICO has dropped off a cliff. P/FCF multiple is lower than 2018, and hovering around 2022 stagflation levels. Meanwhile, FCF/share compounds: +29% YoY Is this a wide-MOAT opportunity in plain sight? $FICO

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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
$FICO Stock (-7%) dropped after U.S. Agencies announced that alternative credit scores can be used in mortgage decisions Market Update: - U.S. mortgage agencies Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA will accept alternative credit scores, challenging $FICO's market dominance (~90% market share). - $FICO has announced a new pricing model for its Scores, which will significantly reduce costs for mortgage lenders. - The recent initiative aims to modernize the mortgage industry and expand access for borrowers with limited traditional credit history. Our view: - This initiative is changing the market structure by allowing more businesses to compete against $FICO. - The moat is attacked because the barriers to entry in this market are removed. - Over the long-term revenue growth could be driven by market growth (volume) and not price increases (like historically). - According to various research reports, the U.S. credit scoring market reached ~$18–19bn in 2025. - The market is poised to expand at a CAGR of ~5.9% over the next 5 years, driven by the increasing adoption of digital lending platforms, and regulatory pressures for risk mitigation. - Consequently, it is a GDP+, but not high-growth market reflecting its maturity and heavy penetration in U.S. lending. - $FICO is currently trading at 16x EV/EBITDA, and would look expensive for investors who believe that the business should grow at only GDP+ rate over the long-term. - However, investors who believe that pricing power will remain strong would find $FICO stock attractive at current level. - On average $FICO has increased its prices by ~8–12% over the past decade. What is your view on $FICO Stock ?🤔
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Michael. Z@MichaelZero10

$FICO, Fair Isaac Corporation Stock is Down 37% YTD 😳 Is $FICO Stock a Buying opportunity or this decline is justified ?🤔 1. Introduction - $FICO core business is consumer credit scores. Indeed, when consumers apply for a mortgage, an auto loan, a credit card, Banks will run a credit background check and they will receive a $FICO score and that determines the interest rate % that will be paid. The entire ecosystem of consumer debt in the U.S is centered around these credit scores. - $FICO has highly benefitted from its monopolistic position, by consistently increasing prices. The business had a strong pricing power. - Over the last 10years revenue, operating profit, and free cash flow/share have expanded respectively by ~9%, ~15-20%, and ~16-20% driven by volume & pricing, operating leverage, and share buybacks.

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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
$ENPH $SEDG Summary of an article from the Financial Times. Renewable Energy sources generated more electricity than coal-fired power stations in 2025 for the first time 😳 According to various analysts, global clear power output grew faster than electricity demand last year. This represents a structural shift away from fossil fuels that is expected to persist beyond the Middle East war. Indeed, wind and solar farms were installed at pace globally last year: roughly ~647 Gigawatts of solar power were added, alongside a record ~165 Gigawatts of wind according to the Global Wind Energy Council. This would be sufficient to power the equivalent of ~200M average western homes. We still believe $ENPH and $SEDG should continue to benefit from this strong momentum.
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
$RBRK Stock looks so cheap compared to other Cyber Security players😳 Quick analysis and key findings: - $RBRK, $CRWD, $NET and $PANW have similar growth expectations over the next few years ~22-27% (see below the table). - All companies have similar Gross Margin expectations, ranging between 75-81%. - However, $RBRK is the cheapest among the basket, as the business is only trading at 5.8x FY27 EV/Sales vs ~12.6x on average for the other four businesses. - This represents more than ~50% discount applied on $RBRK Stock. - All the businesses have strong balance sheets and benefit from large Net Cash balances. Linear Regression (see below): - X-axis (horizontal): Expected revenue growth (%). - Y-axis (vertical): EV/Sales multiple. - The line on the chart is the fair value trend based on growth expectations. - Given a company’s growth rate, what valuation multiple is typically applied by investors. - $RBRK looks well below the trend line and undervalued. - $RBRK seems to provide the best upside potential but due to its size, $9,9bn Market Cap. - However, the business has not yet proven its resilience at scale. - What do you think about $RBRK Stock ? 🤓
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
@clementchellar Thanks! Fair point, $CRWD is more a security platform, while $RBRK is more like a data security player. But both businesses are in the same value chain, they address different stages of the same problem.🤓
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Michael. Z
Michael. Z@MichaelZero10·
@bjmtweets @RichardWedekin1 Thanks for sharing Brian! I agree. But in this case, SBCs are quite dilutive for $RBRK shareholders, so not ideal. See below a screenshot of the fully diluted shares over the last few years.
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