

Michael. Z
2.6K posts

@MichaelZero10
Long-term investor. BSc in Economics, MSc in Corporate Finance. Equity Analyst with a Fundamental Analysis approach. I'm not a financial advisor.














$ENPH: Enphase Energy Stock (-7.59%)🔴 - Today, $ENPH shares were sliding as investors reacted to a rival bidirectional GaN switch from Renesas Electronics, which promises a more efficient and simpler microinverter design that could erode $ENPH's technological edge. The news has raised fresh doubts about the company’s long‑term competitive moat in its core market. - Besides, sentiment is further hit by recurring class‑action lawsuit reminders over alleged inventory misstatements and the looming impact of expiring clean‑energy tax credits, which together heighten perceived legal and policy risks. - Broader solar‑sector unease, tied to major competitors shifting supply chains toward international equipment providers, is adding to the selling pressure on the stock. - Have a look at these details below.


Portfolio Update – 03/08/2026👇🏻👀 • $SHOP – 10.7% ($57.98)📦// Up 125%🟢 • $AMD – 10.4% ($112.6) 💻// Up 51%🟢 • $NBIS – 10.3% ($27.41)🧑💻// Up 193%🟢 • $NFLX – 7.6% ($17.25)📺// Up 413%🟢 • $TMDX – 7.5% ($56.97)💟// Up 101%🟢 • $UNH – 6.8% ($286.32)💟// Down 4%🔴 • $CRWD – 6.6% ($221.27)🔏// Up 82%🟢 • $ENPH – 6.2% ($32.35) 🌞// Up 24%🟢 • $CELH – 5.8% ($21.98)🧃// Up 74%🟢 • $DUOL – 4.7% ($173.33) 🧑🎓// Down 41%🔴 • $TTD – 4.5% ($31.31)💻// Down 4%🔴 • $ELF – 4.4% ($72.68)💄// Up 2%🟢 • $PALO – 3.3% ($145.09)🔏// Up 5%🟢 • $RDDT – 3.2% ($130.10)💻// Up 9%🟢 • $DLO – 3.1% ($10.03)💳// Up 3%🟢 • $CORT – 2.6% ($37.19)💟// Down 8%🔴 • $RBLX – 2.0% ($63.84)🎲// Up 1%🟢 • YTD Performance: -8.5%*🔴 • YTD Nasdaq Comp Performance: -3.7%🔴 * Please note that our Portfolio is denominated in Euro, and the U.S. Dollar is currently Up ~1% YTD against Euro. This great performance of the U.S. Dollar is improving our overall performance by ~1%. • Market Updates: - The U.S. - Israel war against Iran that began on Saturday, Feb 28th has worried investors about broader economic fallout. - On Friday, oil prices hit a psychologically important $90 a barrel for the first time in two years as Kuwait cut output. - Besides, U.S. job growth in February was much weaker than economists anticipated. - Consequently, investors believe the U.S. economy could experience a stagflation over the next few quarters. - Stagflation is an economic condition characterized by high inflation (currently driven by energy prices), stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment (currently at ~4.4%). - On the week, the Dow fell 3.0%, the S&P 500 lost 2.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.2%. • Next Few Weeks: - The U.S. - Israel war against Iran is probably the Major Risk for Equity Markets. We could imagine three possible scenarios. - Scenario 1: the Current/New Iranian Government would give up the country's nuclear ambitions and restore access to the Strait of Hormuz, so that Brent prices would fall below $70/bbl. - Scenario 2: there is only a temporary disruption between four to five weeks of Oil and Gas from the Gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE). Brent prices would stabilize around $80/bbl, and the impact on U.S. growth would be minimal. - Scenario 3: the worst-case scenario relies on a war that lasts. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and more attacks are damaging Oil & Gas facilities in the Gulf countries. Brent prices could rise around $120/bbl. A two-quarter halt of most Gulf oil supplies would set back U.S. growth by ~1% and push inflation up by ~1-1.5%, which is significant. • Recent Moves: $RDDT - We fully liquidated our stake in $ASML to initiate a position in $RDDT (~3% of our portfolio). - Indeed, $ASML is already mature with probably less upside potential than $RDDT. - Recently market sentiment has turned really negative on software stocks. - Consequently we believe current valuation multiples are attractive, as $RDDT is trading at 18.22x EV/2026E EBITDA for 83.01% growth over the same period. - Therefore, we wanted to take advantage of this investment opportunity. $RBLX - We built a new position in $RBLX (~2% of our portfolio). - We believe $RBLX has a unique business model. - The core of $RBLX is its game-development software called Roblox Studio, a free tool that enables people to quickly make a game. - There are competing gaming platforms from $U and Unreal Engine, but they more complicated and don’t come with a built-in audience. - Roblox Studio is the company’s unique asset that drives developers to the platform. - Consequently we believe $RBLX is attractive considering the platform’s long-term potential. • Other Comments: 🤓 - The Portfolio has experienced some volatility over the last few weeks as investors are trying to assess which software businesses would still be relevant in the future with the launch of new AI capabilities. - Our Portfolio has a lot of these businesses such as $SHOP, $CRWD etc. However, we still believe these businesses will get better in the future as they invest massively to include AI capabilities in their solutions. - The U.S. Dollar (YTD: +1%) is slightly hedging our Portfolio. Indeed global oil is traded in USD, when oil prices rise, countries buying oil must purchase more USD to pay for it. This increases demand for USD. - Recently, our 2026 Best Performing Stock $ENPH (+25% YTD) has started to give back some gains (1M: -20%), as inflation could be higher than anticipated in the U.S. with this current conflict in the Middle East. - The Investment thesis on $ENPH is not broken yet but the duration of this conflict will be key. How your portfolio is performing? 🤔

3. $FTNT : Fortinet • $FTNT is Down 17% YTD, including the 20% losses from last week after their Q2 Earnings Report. Q2 Results 🔴 • Sales reached $1.63bn in Q2 up 14% from last year. • Earnings Per Share landed at $0.64, ahead of the $0.59 that analysts were expecting • However $FTNT's guidance for Q3 came in well below estimates. Revenue is expected to land somewhere between $1.67-$1.73bn, which came in a touch under what Analysts were hoping for. • $FTNT's management pointed out a $400-$450m refresh opportunity in firewall products in November, but said that the business was 40%-50% through the 2026 upgrade cycle, suggesting future Sales of upgrade components and services could be smaller than expected. Is the Stock attractive at current level ?🔎 • $FTNT has delivered descent revenue growth over the last few years with growth fluctuating between 12-32% and this momentum is expected to continue. • Investors are too focused on near-term headwinds in the Cybersecurity space. Besides they are overstating the potential competition pressures that could face $FTNT in the future. • Current valuation is reasonable, as $FTNT is trading at 20.15x 2026 EV/EBITDA, which represents ~40% discount to $PANW (32.36x 2026 EV/EBITDA, while both businesses have similar growth expectations (~12-14%) and EBITDA Margins (~32-35%). • This does not make sense and inventors should rerate $FTNT Stock over the next few quarters. • Based on this analysis, we believe $FTNT is really attractive at current level.










FICO has dropped off a cliff. P/FCF multiple is lower than 2018, and hovering around 2022 stagflation levels. Meanwhile, FCF/share compounds: +29% YoY Is this a wide-MOAT opportunity in plain sight? $FICO


$FICO, Fair Isaac Corporation Stock is Down 37% YTD 😳 Is $FICO Stock a Buying opportunity or this decline is justified ?🤔 1. Introduction - $FICO core business is consumer credit scores. Indeed, when consumers apply for a mortgage, an auto loan, a credit card, Banks will run a credit background check and they will receive a $FICO score and that determines the interest rate % that will be paid. The entire ecosystem of consumer debt in the U.S is centered around these credit scores. - $FICO has highly benefitted from its monopolistic position, by consistently increasing prices. The business had a strong pricing power. - Over the last 10years revenue, operating profit, and free cash flow/share have expanded respectively by ~9%, ~15-20%, and ~16-20% driven by volume & pricing, operating leverage, and share buybacks.










