So, let's discuss the flooding in Texas. Here are the facts many Democratic mouthpieces and some legacy media outlets are choosing to ignore: 1⃣ The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Austin / San Antonio was staffed with five meteorologists throughout the storms on Thursday and Friday, according to NWS meteorologist Jason Runyen. Most offices usually have two on staff when the weather is benign. 🔗apnews.com/article/texas-… So, the claim that the 11% reduction in NWS employee headcount from the Trump administration's RIFs played no role in their ability to post forecasts and get information out to the public is WRONG. 2⃣ The NWS office issued a flood watch for the area at 1:18 p.m. CDT on Thursday, more than 15 HOURS in advance, urging residents to be weather-aware. At 1:14 a.m. CDT, they issued a flash flood warning for, more than three hours before the Guadalupe River rapidly crested at 29.45 feet in Hunt, which is located near Camp Mystic. 🔗mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?… 🔗mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?… There was plenty of warning from forecasters, even if initial forecasts did not predict some 12-20 inches of rain falling. The unfortunate aspect of all of this is that most people were probably asleep when the waters rose, and with no county flood warning systems that function like a tornado siren, the flash flood warnings posted by the NWS went unnoticed. 3⃣ The flooding was inevitable. The remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico, were absorbed into a broad, retrograding upper-level low. Further destabilization of the lower atmosphere resulted in a rotating mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), which stalled over Central Texas and dropped over 1.8 trillion gallons of rain on the Hill Country. 🌧️ The dynamics involved here are poorly understood, and as a result, mesoscale models have a very difficult time predicting exactly where these sorts of systems will form and exactly how much rain could fall. What's more, the terrain across the Texas Hill Country is characterized by a dry, thin layer of topsoil and exposed rocks on the surface, making it prone to flash flooding events. Heavy rainfall isn't readily absorbed, and trickles down into nearby rivers and creeks, where it causes them to spill over their banks. 🪨 4⃣ The rainfall and flooding were not unprecedented, and it had little to do with climate change. Camp Mystic and neighboring communities like Hunt and Kerrville are located on the floodplains of the Guadalupe River Valley. The sediment that they're built on has been deposited by hundreds of floods over the last several thousand years. Flooding there is expected. And, while we may be seeing heavier rainfall events in the region because the atmosphere is a little warmer now, there have been no detectable increases in either the frequency or magnitude of river floods in the Texas Hill Country since 1965. In fact, they have decreased over the last 60 years, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 🔗epa.gov/climate-indica… In early September 1921, downtown San Antonio was inundated beneath 2-12 feet of floodwaters caused by the decaying remnants of a category one hurricane that made landfall in Mexico. Over two feet of rain fell in the Guadalupe River Valley and Thrall recorded 38.2 inches of rain in 24 hours, including 23.4 inches in just six hours. On July 2, 1932, Mountain Home recorded 32.4 inches of rain in 18 hours, which was caused by a very similar stalled upper-level low and orographic enhancement. 🔗pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-… The highest 24-hour rainfall I could find from Friday's rainfall was a little over 21 inches, so that was far from record-shattering in the general area. The associated flooding also wasn’t unprecedented along the Guadalupe River. The crests at all stations were far from the record peak set at Spring Branch in August 1869. 𝐊𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐞: Peak crest of 23.40 feet. • 3rd highest on record at that gauge • Record: 39.00 ft. on July 2, 1932 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭: 21.41 ft. • 2nd highest on record • Record: 24.27 ft. on October 16, 1978 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐭: 34.76 ft. • 5th highest on record • Record: 42.3 ft. on July 1, 1869 • Three of the top five highest occurred prior to 1940 𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐦: 49.70 ft. • Highest in record at that gauge 𝐒𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐡: 29.33 ft. • 13th highest on record • Record: 53.00 ft. on August 3, 1869 🔗water.noaa.gov/gauges/SRGT2 The tragedy is appalling enough as it is, and I hope the dozens of people who are still missing are found. We don't need the added effect of idiots champing at the bit to finger-point and place blame on people, in this case, Republicans, they don't like. Stop exploiting natural disasters because you view the world through hyperpartisan political lenses.
