Mike W

@FiliusGrok @Angry_Staffer Trump forced Iran to get nuclear weapons. Now Trump is upset.

@FiliusGrok @Angry_Staffer If you have a deal where you give up nuclear aspirations for the removal of economic sanctions, and then the other side reneges on it and applies economic sanctions, what do you think happens. A quid pro quo only happens if you receive a quid.

So far, Trump is just lying about Obama’s nuclear deal. Not a word he said about the JCPOA is true

@FiliusGrok @Angry_Staffer The deal that stopped them getting a nuke was scrapped by Trump. What do you expect them to do?

@Angry_Staffer Why did Iran have 60% uranium if they were never trying to get a nuke?

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops That's a fair point - they may get 30-40% of their money back. It's a far cry from it being net positive.

@Mike96W @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops even if i granted an upper bound of 10-15k its a break even or its a subsidy. of course that's an incentive. "hey, even if your application fails, you'll get most of what you paid refunded" compared to "take this risk and you'll have sunk all that money for nothing"

sorry, how much would unleaded fuel be without taxes?

@LitecoinTA @AidanSimardone Trumps announcement is in 13 hours, so what part didn’t age well?

@AidanSimardone This didn’t age well

Shot in the dark, but I would guess: - UK and Australia PMs will announce an emergency on oil, encourage people to limit car use etc. Deliberately vague - A couple hours before Trump’s announcement, a ground invasion - At 9Pm Trump talks about what a success it was

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops No, there wouldn't be an incentive to migrate as the payment is less than the cost of getting here.

@Mike96W @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops sure, it probably would be cheaper, the issue is that it'd be creating another incentive to migrate in turn generating yet more costly deportations or paid departures. asylum seekers vastly prefer the UK over a lot of europe already due to incentives we've failed to crack down on

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops Ahh, my bad, but even then, 10k sounds a lot cheaper than a 13k flight, tens of thousands in legal fees and detention costs. Far far cheaper.

@Mike96W @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops lmao, that's not me saying they should be given 13k, it's that the one-off cost of their flight (estimated to be up to 13k per head under tory mismanagement) is preferable to their continued life long cost to the state

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops This whole debate has gone on far too long. You’re currently here arguing that 10k is far too much per person, when before you said that they should be given 13k. It’s like you have no idea what your argument is at all. x.com/lambda24925642…

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops I think it’s exceptionally rare, hence why people make the arduous journey across the channel. Why do people cross the channel in your eyes? It’s more expensive, has a decent chance of death/injury and takes longer.

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops If there was a realistic chance of anyone doing so, people would not be crossing continents by truck and the sea in a dinghy to get here.

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops It’s not possible for an economic migrant from Eritrea to get a Visa to fly here. It’s barely possible to get a Visa here from Eritrea even if you had a good reason, such as work.

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops I’m not going to continue this if you can’t provide a cohesive argument.

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops And your logic is ridiculous. You claim that getting a VISA from Eritrea is so so easy, but then also claim that thousands of Eritreans are paying, in your mind, ~£5,000 to travel here. They cannot both be true.

@DeeRerwmzw @tomgreavo Cat 2 is 100 euro more than in 2021.

@tomgreavo What game is that for? Seems fairly reasonable to me

“As UEFA commits to affordable pricing”

@lambda249256422 @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops Eritrean has the 2nd highest absolute levels of people claiming asylum, and the 3rd highest asylum grant rate. An extreme case.

@Mike96W @scoopin_ @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops no, a very recent visa ban has been applied to 4 nations, of which eritrea is not one. a visa ban... because of the extreme levels of sudden asylum claims off the back of a visa. what "extreme case"? this is so common even labour have stepped in to try combat it

@lambda249256422 @scoopin_ @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops And statistics about overall overstaying rates is fundamentally useless when you are using it to talk about an extreme case. You’re literally taking the piss here.

@lambda249256422 @scoopin_ @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops I think that a smuggler bragging that he can offer people from the poorest countries (the most desperate people) a cheaper price, is advertising, yes. Such people means people from a country that has such a high asylum rate that you cannot get a visa, even if you have a reason.

@lambda249256422 @scoopin_ @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops By the way, thanks for replying to me at 2am UK time. Commitment to the cause.

@lambda249256422 @scoopin_ @mofarahjr @amdamsky @onetrainops The first source links to here: unodc.org/toc/en/crimes/… as its source, which in turn links to here: unodc.org/documents/huma… It's an 15 year old report. The second link sounds like advertising, to be honest. And no, such people are refused visas.