Michał Kudzia

An Indonesian fisherman just pulled a 3.7-meter torpedo-shaped Chinese spy sensor out of the Lombok Strait, near Gili Trawangan. Defense analysts have identified it as a Deep-Sea Real-Time Transmission Mooring System made by China's 710 Research Institute, a body focused on underwater attack and defense. Here is why this is a big deal. The device sits anchored to the seafloor and uses acoustic sensors to detect submarines passing by, transmitting real-time data back to shore. Sound. Target information. Continuously. It bears the logo of CSIC, China's state shipbuilding corporation. The Lombok Strait is one of the most strategically important waterways on the planet. It is the deep-water corridor between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and the primary route for Australia's future AUKUS nuclear submarines to reach the South China Sea and any Taiwan flashpoint. Beijing's response? "There is no need for excessive interpretation or suspicion." Analysts say this device suggests China may already have a network of these sensors across Southeast Asian sea lanes, building a real-time picture of undersea conditions to give its submarines a wartime advantage. Indonesia will investigate. Then go quiet. It happened the same way in 2020 when a Chinese underwater glider was found near Sulawesi. Jakarta is simply not in a position, politically or economically, to push back loudly against Beijing. Full story here: abc.net.au/news/2026-04-1…

The Quad is dead. It is dead because great power competition isn’t centered in the Indo-Pacific anymore. It’s shifting to the Eurasian Heartland, where China and Russia are building a fortress of pipelines, railways, and overland trade routes—beyond the reach of the U.S. Navy. India may host a BRICS meeting to offset Pakistan’s renewed visibility. But geography is unforgiving: the Himalayas cut India off from China, leaving it peripheral to Beijing’s continental strategy. That’s the real tragedy—India matters, just not where the game is now being played. scmp.com/news/china/art…

Poland has found an unlikely celebrity in Edward Warchocki, a Chinese robot equipped with locally developed software that has debated politicians and chased wild boars off the streets of Warsaw. ft.trib.al/iIMGy1q

NETANYAHU: WE HAVE NOT YET FINISHED THE JOB AGAINST HEZBOLLAH NETANYAHU: DISMANTLING HEZBOLLAH WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED TOMORROW

Meanwhile, the rest of Europe is removing Huawei from its networks under the Commission’s tightened rules. Spain solved the issue ‘nationally’ by having its National Intelligence Centre certify a huge number of Huawei products as safe. This is what I mean by deep divisions in threat perceptions within the EU and the European NATO. Xi Jinping doesn't trust Sanchez for nothing and expects Spain, in return, to influence Brussels not to implement coercive or hampering regulations against China.

🪔سوريا ومبالغات أنابيب النفط والغاز.... 1- لايمكن ان تكون سوريا بديلا لمضيق هرمز لأن أغلب النفط والغاز من الخليج يذهب إلى شرق آسيا، وليس إلى أوروبا! نسبة اعتماد أوروبا على النفط والغاز الخليجيين بسيط جدا. 2- فكرة أن هناك طلب على النفط والغاز في أوروبا لأنها تريد استبدال الغاز والنفط والروسيين وهذا يفتح فرصة كبيرة لبناء أنابيب عبر سوريا غير صحيحة: السوق الأوروبية للأميركيين، والأميركيون خططوا للسيطرة على الأسواق الأوروبية من 2014 ونجحوا. الولايات المتحدة هي أكبر منتج للنفط والغاز والغاز المسال في العالم، وتستخدمهم كسلاح. 3- سياسيا، من يقول بتمديد أنابيب من الخليج عبر سوريا يؤكد ماقاله بشار وشبيحته وقنواته من أن الثورة كان سببها صراع على الأنابيب! 4- في المشروع القديم لنقل الغاز من الخليج إلى سوريا ومنه إلى أوروبا: هذا الغاز لم يعد موجودا الآن لأنه يتم تطويره لبيعه كغاز مسال. باختصار، ليس هناك غاز، حتى نتكلم عن انبوب لنقله. 5- تجربة الأنابيب العابرة للدول العربية سيئة وتاريخها مقيت. 6- حتى عالميا، أصبح الأمر غير مرغوب فيه بعد وقف أنبوب نورد ستريم 2 وتفجير خط نورد ستريم 1، ووقف العمل بأنبوب الغاز من روسيا لأوروبا عبر أوكرانيا، ومشاكل أنبوب النفط بين العراق وتركيا 7- تطورت التقنية في 15 سنة الأخيرة. ماكان آمنا من 50 سنة لم يعد آمنا الآن. المسيرات تصل لكل مكان وتكاليفها بسيطة. 7- الأنبوب الوحيد الذي يمكن تطويره بناء على جدواه الاقتصادية هو من كركوك إلى بانياس. ولكن مخاطره السياسية عالية.

NEW: In an unusual attempt to get Trump’s ear—and go around Marco Rubio—the grandson of Cuban leader Raúl Castro tapped a wealthy Havana entrepreneur to try to personally deliver a letter to Trump outside of regular diplomatic channels With @Jose_deCordoba wsj.com/politics/natio…

Sweden has a quiet habit of building aircraft that punch far above their weight. The Saab GlobalEye is another perfect example. Built by Saab, it turns a sleek business jet into one of the most capable airborne surveillance platforms in service today. While older AWACS rely on size and noise, GlobalEye delivers long-range detection across air, sea, and land with efficiency, endurance, and precision. It’s classic Swedish engineering: smart, elegant, and quietly lethal. 🇸🇪🫡

Mélenchon claims earlier engagement with China would have let France negotiate outcomes that prevented industrial losses - he recommended it from 2010 But Germany's been doing exactly that for decades and its industry doesn't appear to have been spared

Vance has now seized the top seat in the Death of Expertise Hall of Fame: He has lectured the pope—the pope, the leader of a billion and a half Catholics—about being too sloppy with theology. The queen of all vices: Pride. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/…

Russia’s central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina says the country is facing a labour shortage for the first time in its modern history, as a tight jobs market and elevated inflation point to an overheating economy. "This is a new reality for both the authorities and businesses," she said, pointing to unemployment at around 2% and inflation hitting roughly 10% earlier this year as clear signs of strain, adding: "This is precisely what indicates an overheating economy, not high growth rates, but these factors." Nabiullina also stressed that current conditions are structurally different from the past, saying the deterioration in external conditions is now "almost permanent."

Diplomacy as Deception: Trump, as his public ramblings and social-media posts indicate, appears increasingly frustrated over his Iran war having turned into a self-inflicted debacle, with the U.S. failing to bomb Tehran into submission. Notably, the legacy-minded Trump, while claiming the Iran war is “almost over,” has rushed more than 10,000 additional ground-combat-ready U.S. troops to the Gulf. Trump has previously used diplomatic engagement as strategic cover for military action, and he may now be playing the same double game, even as his “favorite field marshal” from Pakistan delivers Washington’s messages in Tehran. Under Trump, negotiations have increasingly become camouflage for employing force. In June 2025, U.S. nuclear talks with Iran in Oman provided cover for Israel’s devastating aerial assaults on Iran, catching Tehran completely off guard. And on February 28, 2026, just as renewed American negotiations with Tehran were progressing toward a deal, with Oman again serving as the key mediator, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint war on Iran. This pattern of bad-faith diplomacy has not gone unnoticed abroad, reinforcing the perception that, for Washington, negotiations are not pathways to resolving disputes but preludes to coercion — or worse, attack. “Talking Peace, Waging War” is no longer a contradiction; it is Trump’s method.

The craziest thing the West is doing right now is funding its military expansion through debt. This is done in the name of security, but it creates massive security risks in itself, for example if a government under attack would face sudden fiscal constraints because it has no fiscal space available. Putin, by contrast, funds his military adventures mostly from revenues. Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is under 20%. If it ever came to a war, Putin’s biggest ally would be the bond market vigilantes. eurointelligence.com

The war will be a big drain on Gulf sovereign-wealth funds, which will have to foot at least some of the bill: - $25bn in damage to oil-and-gas infrastructure from Iranian strikes - closure of Hormuz has spurred interest in new pipelines to bypass it; could run $30-50bn - higher defense spending, not least to restock interceptors - support for sluggish economies at home, with diminished airline traffic and empty hotels economist.com/finance-and-ec…

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America’s new civic religion is Israelism, Christianity without the New Testament, and it’s the most unforgiving faith of all.

NEW: Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters today that Pope Leo XIV doesn't understand “something called the just war doctrine.” Pope Leo is an Augustinian friar who spent twelve years leading Augustine’s religious order. Augustine invented the doctrine. thelettersfromleo.com/p/something-ca…

Indeed. Just war theory is an important element of Polish strategic culture. As early as the fifteenth century, the Kingdom of Poland sought to restrain the imperialism of the Teutonic Order not only on the battlefield, but also by waging a legal war against it. A key role was played by Paweł Włodkowic - Paul Vladimiri as they called him at the time - rector of the Jagiellonian University, who, following the most prominent theological and legal thinkers of his age, defended the right of pagans to possess states of their own, secure from attack by Christians, provided that they themselves refrained from attacking their Christian neighbours. Just war theory, properly understood, is anti-imperial: it exists not to sanctify conquest, but to place moral and legal limits on power. 👇 teologiapolityczna.pl/600-lecie-spor…

‼️‼️🇯🇵 BREAKING - The Japanese government has approved a major relaxation of arms export rules, effectively ending the post-war pacifism era and opening the country's military-industrial complex to the global market. Japan, with a $60 billion military budget, already produces high-tech systems — ranging from submarines and warships to its own missiles, tanks, and combat aircraft. Corporations like Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric are beginning massive hiring and factory expansions, expecting defense sales to grow by more than 50% by 2031. As a first practical step, Tokyo plans to supply second-hand missile frigates to the Philippines to strengthen the balance against China in the South China Sea, as well as joint projects with Poland in the fields of electronic warfare and anti-drone systems. Additionally, Ukraine is expected to join this initiative: an industrial group is already being formed in Tokyo to combine the efforts of Japanese and Ukrainian drone manufacturers. Although the ban on supplying weapons to active war zones remains, the formation of supply chains independent from the U.S. in Asia makes Japan a serious competitor, including for South Korea and Israel. At the same time, the country's relatively unique and self-sufficient technological base allows it to quickly take a position in the niche of air defense components and systems, offering allies an alternative to the overburdened U.S. defense industry. See the latest updates with us: @visionergeo

Le mouvement est discret, mais profondément structurant. Selon Reuters, plusieurs alliés des États-Unis, ébranlés par l’imprévisibilité de Trump, se tournent désormais vers le Japon, qui s’apprête à ouvrir largement ses exportations d’armement — un changement majeur, le plus important depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Ce basculement répond à des contraintes très concrètes. Les stocks américains sont sous pression, notamment avec l’Ukraine et les tensions au Moyen-Orient, tandis que les capacités industrielles peinent à suivre. Les délais s’allongent, les volumes manquent, et la fiabilité perçue de Washington est questionnée. Dans ce contexte, le Japon apparaît comme une alternative crédible. Tokyo envisage d’exporter des frégates, des systèmes antimissiles et des technologies avancées, tout en développant des coopérations industrielles dans des domaines clés comme les drones ou la guerre électronique. Des pays comme la Pologne ou les Philippines sont déjà en première ligne. Côté japonais, l’objectif est clair : reconstruire une base industrielle de défense robuste, avec un budget en hausse et des groupes comme Mitsubishi Electric ou Toshiba en expansion. Il s’agit à la fois de répondre à la demande internationale et de renforcer sa propre posture stratégique. En creux, le message est limpide. Les alliés ne cherchent plus seulement à compléter l’offre américaine. Ils anticipent un monde où la garantie sécuritaire des États-Unis est moins automatique — et où la diversification devient une nécessité stratégique. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…