Milk Road

Raoul Pal: "In four years, we'll have superintelligence." AI is developing at the fastest rate of any technology we've ever seen. Politics can't deal with it. Institutions can't deal with it. "We're just not set up for this." FT @RaoulGMI @RealVision

The economic singularity is coming and Raoul Pal is putting a date on it. "The economic singularity - I said 2030 to 2032. I think 2030 is spot on." "I think we'll be straight into the economic singularity where nothing makes sense anymore in terms of how the economy works." FT @RaoulGMI @BittelJulien @RealVision.

Coinbase just handed AI agents the keys to your trading account. Yesterday they launched "Coinbase for Agents," which connects agents like Claude or ChatGPT directly to your @Coinbase account. Your agent can now read your portfolio AND place the trades (save this). Some of what's possible on day one: You give it a target allocation (say 60% $BTC, 20% $ETH, 20% $SOL) and tell it to set limit orders at 5%, 10%, and 15% dips so you build the position gradually. Or you ask it to find the best DCA window. It pulls 30 days of hourly price data, finds when $ETH historically trades cheapest, and sets a recurring $20 buy at that hour every day. It can also watch your idle cash around the clock and put it to work earning rewards. Worried about giving an AI full access to your portfolio? Your Coinbase agent can live in an isolated portfolio with zero visibility into your other holdings, where it only touches what you've explicitly permissioned. Soon you'll be able to set hard caps too: Max trade size, what it can interact with, how much it can spend. Coinbase compares it to giving your agent a gift card instead of your bank account. Every payment also runs through the same KYT and transaction monitoring as the rest of Coinbase. What's coming next: Stocks, index funds, prediction markets, and commodities. If it trades on Coinbase, they want your agent trading it. Plus x402 payments, so your agent can buy its own data and services to inform trades - and a remote MCP that connects with just a Coinbase sign-in, no API keys. They also dropped Coinbase Advisor, an AI advisor inside the Coinbase app that's registered with the SEC and CFTC. Coinbase has been building toward this since AgentKit in 2024, then x402 last year. The bet being that people swill stop using apps and start using agents. (With Coinbase becoming the account those agents plug into.)

Raoul Pal: "I still believe this is a mid-cycle correction" "We basically had what was a mid-cycle correction in 2020 that gave us a two standard deviations oversold." "I still believe because we didn't get anywhere near a peak and the liquidity cycle is still in play that this is a mid-cycle correction." Tech has been easy money. Crypto has been a different story. But he thinks crypto plays catch-up from here. FT @RaoulGMI @comodouglas @RealVision.

Wall Street just erased $2 TRILLION from software stocks and gave the wreck a name: The SaaSpocalypse. Our lead crypto analyst, @m0xt_, thinks the market just made a $2T sorting error, and he published a full report on where the money gets made (save this). Let's talk damage first... $CRM fell about 30%. $WDAY fell 33%. The main software index lost more than 20% in a single quarter. And for the first time on record, software trades at a lower earnings multiple than the average S&P 500 company. The market's golden child of two decades is priced like a dying industry. The accused killer is the AI agent: Software that does the work itself instead of helping a human do it - It resolves the ticket... It reconciles the invoice... So if an agent can do the job... Why pay for software that just helps a human do it? The bear case is serious, and @m0xt_ gives it real respect: 1. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said most business apps are basically databases with some rules on top. If an agent can talk to the database directly, the screens in between lose their reason to exist. 2. Per-seat pricing is built on a number that AI shrinks. Atlassian just logged its first ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Workday cut 8.5% of its own workforce. 3. Cursor went from zero to $2B in annual revenue in roughly 3 years, the fastest ramp in business software history. 4. The selloff's biggest leg down came when Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI desktop worker that runs multi-step workflows on its own. But @m0xt_ found four cracks in the funeral story: Deutsche Bank says it doesn't know of a single software company expecting AI to hurt revenue this year. In Q1 2026, 14 of the 16 software names covered by one Morningstar analyst beat on both the top and bottom line. In the real software busts (2001, 2008, 2022), earnings collapsed with the stocks. This time the stocks fell and the earnings kept climbing. That gap has to close one way or the other. → The agents aren't ready just yet. Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects get canceled by the end of 2027, and says only about 130 of the thousands of vendors selling "AI agents" are the real thing. The rest are slapping the agent label on old chatbots. → The poster child of AI adoption changed its mind. Klarna cut hundreds of software tools and 1,200 employees after building an AI support system it said did the work of 700 people. Then quality slipped, Klarna started rehiring humans, and the CEO publicly said he doesn't think this is the end of Salesforce. → Nobody is actually leaving. No churn wave in Q1, and not one major vendor has reported customers walking away for home-built AI. So the market is pricing a takeover by a workforce of agents that, today, mostly can't be left alone with the keys. The one-sentence thesis from @m0xt_ goes like this: AI kills software that helps humans use tools, and feeds software that gets work done. The market is pricing both for the same funeral. Companies poured an estimated $30-40B into generative AI, and one widely cited MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots produced no measurable return. A model produces words and suggestions, but a business needs the invoice reconciled and the ticket closed, with a record of who approved it and rules about who was allowed to do it. Raw intelligence is cheap → trusted, finished work is not. And the selloff just put the companies that sell finished work on sale. Software trades around 23x forward earnings, down from over 80x at the 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the selloff "too broad." When everything gets sold for the same reason, the companies the reason doesn't apply to go on sale by accident. @m0xt_ is testing the thesis on three names: $NOW (ServiceNow) runs the plumbing of big companies: IT requests, HR cases, security incidents. A 98% renewal rate means customers almost never leave. Contracted future revenue hit $28.2B, up 26%. $CRM (Salesforce) is the stress test. If SaaS were truly dead, this should be the most exposed name on the board - and the market treated it that way: the stock fell roughly 50%. Its agent product, Agentforce, sits near $800M in ARR, up 169%. $TOST (Toast) runs restaurants - orders, payments, payroll. Roughly half its recurring revenue comes from payment processing, so it earns when its restaurants earn. You can't seat-compress a payments stream. Each name comes with exact tripwires in the report: The numbers that prove the thesis right, and the numbers that would make @m0xt_ admit he's wrong and cut. And he didn't stop at writing. Off the back of this report, he opened a brand new position in his portfolio: One of the three stocks above, at a specific entry price, with preset triggers for buying more and for selling. PRO members can see which stock, the entry, and every trigger right now. It costs $1 to find out which one he bought. Link in the first comment 👇

Raoul Pal: The "economic singularity" is when the system can no longer keep up with the speed of technology. We're used to a max population of 9 billion humans. But "we can go to 18 billion, 100 billion, a trillion people. We can make infinite agents." Silicon is the second most common thing on Earth. We're putting electricity through it and producing intelligence at "six orders of magnitude faster" than a human neuron. A million times the speed. FT @RaoulGMI @KevinWSHPod @RealVision.

Wall Street just erased $2 TRILLION from software stocks and gave the wreck a name: The SaaSpocalypse. Our lead crypto analyst, @m0xt_, thinks the market just made a $2T sorting error, and he published a full report on where the money gets made (save this). Let's talk damage first... $CRM fell about 30%. $WDAY fell 33%. The main software index lost more than 20% in a single quarter. And for the first time on record, software trades at a lower earnings multiple than the average S&P 500 company. The market's golden child of two decades is priced like a dying industry. The accused killer is the AI agent: Software that does the work itself instead of helping a human do it - It resolves the ticket... It reconciles the invoice... So if an agent can do the job... Why pay for software that just helps a human do it? The bear case is serious, and @m0xt_ gives it real respect: 1. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said most business apps are basically databases with some rules on top. If an agent can talk to the database directly, the screens in between lose their reason to exist. 2. Per-seat pricing is built on a number that AI shrinks. Atlassian just logged its first ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Workday cut 8.5% of its own workforce. 3. Cursor went from zero to $2B in annual revenue in roughly 3 years, the fastest ramp in business software history. 4. The selloff's biggest leg down came when Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI desktop worker that runs multi-step workflows on its own. But @m0xt_ found four cracks in the funeral story: Deutsche Bank says it doesn't know of a single software company expecting AI to hurt revenue this year. In Q1 2026, 14 of the 16 software names covered by one Morningstar analyst beat on both the top and bottom line. In the real software busts (2001, 2008, 2022), earnings collapsed with the stocks. This time the stocks fell and the earnings kept climbing. That gap has to close one way or the other. → The agents aren't ready just yet. Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects get canceled by the end of 2027, and says only about 130 of the thousands of vendors selling "AI agents" are the real thing. The rest are slapping the agent label on old chatbots. → The poster child of AI adoption changed its mind. Klarna cut hundreds of software tools and 1,200 employees after building an AI support system it said did the work of 700 people. Then quality slipped, Klarna started rehiring humans, and the CEO publicly said he doesn't think this is the end of Salesforce. → Nobody is actually leaving. No churn wave in Q1, and not one major vendor has reported customers walking away for home-built AI. So the market is pricing a takeover by a workforce of agents that, today, mostly can't be left alone with the keys. The one-sentence thesis from @m0xt_ goes like this: AI kills software that helps humans use tools, and feeds software that gets work done. The market is pricing both for the same funeral. Companies poured an estimated $30-40B into generative AI, and one widely cited MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots produced no measurable return. A model produces words and suggestions, but a business needs the invoice reconciled and the ticket closed, with a record of who approved it and rules about who was allowed to do it. Raw intelligence is cheap → trusted, finished work is not. And the selloff just put the companies that sell finished work on sale. Software trades around 23x forward earnings, down from over 80x at the 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the selloff "too broad." When everything gets sold for the same reason, the companies the reason doesn't apply to go on sale by accident. @m0xt_ is testing the thesis on three names: $NOW (ServiceNow) runs the plumbing of big companies: IT requests, HR cases, security incidents. A 98% renewal rate means customers almost never leave. Contracted future revenue hit $28.2B, up 26%. $CRM (Salesforce) is the stress test. If SaaS were truly dead, this should be the most exposed name on the board - and the market treated it that way: the stock fell roughly 50%. Its agent product, Agentforce, sits near $800M in ARR, up 169%. $TOST (Toast) runs restaurants - orders, payments, payroll. Roughly half its recurring revenue comes from payment processing, so it earns when its restaurants earn. You can't seat-compress a payments stream. Each name comes with exact tripwires in the report: The numbers that prove the thesis right, and the numbers that would make @m0xt_ admit he's wrong and cut. And he didn't stop at writing. Off the back of this report, he opened a brand new position in his portfolio: One of the three stocks above, at a specific entry price, with preset triggers for buying more and for selling. PRO members can see which stock, the entry, and every trigger right now. It costs $1 to find out which one he bought. Link in the first comment 👇

Coinbase just handed AI agents the keys to your trading account. Yesterday they launched "Coinbase for Agents," which connects agents like Claude or ChatGPT directly to your @Coinbase account. Your agent can now read your portfolio AND place the trades (save this). Some of what's possible on day one: You give it a target allocation (say 60% $BTC, 20% $ETH, 20% $SOL) and tell it to set limit orders at 5%, 10%, and 15% dips so you build the position gradually. Or you ask it to find the best DCA window. It pulls 30 days of hourly price data, finds when $ETH historically trades cheapest, and sets a recurring $20 buy at that hour every day. It can also watch your idle cash around the clock and put it to work earning rewards. Worried about giving an AI full access to your portfolio? Your Coinbase agent can live in an isolated portfolio with zero visibility into your other holdings, where it only touches what you've explicitly permissioned. Soon you'll be able to set hard caps too: Max trade size, what it can interact with, how much it can spend. Coinbase compares it to giving your agent a gift card instead of your bank account. Every payment also runs through the same KYT and transaction monitoring as the rest of Coinbase. What's coming next: Stocks, index funds, prediction markets, and commodities. If it trades on Coinbase, they want your agent trading it. Plus x402 payments, so your agent can buy its own data and services to inform trades - and a remote MCP that connects with just a Coinbase sign-in, no API keys. They also dropped Coinbase Advisor, an AI advisor inside the Coinbase app that's registered with the SEC and CFTC. Coinbase has been building toward this since AgentKit in 2024, then x402 last year. The bet being that people swill stop using apps and start using agents. (With Coinbase becoming the account those agents plug into.)

Coinbase just handed AI agents the keys to your trading account. Yesterday they launched "Coinbase for Agents," which connects agents like Claude or ChatGPT directly to your @Coinbase account. Your agent can now read your portfolio AND place the trades (save this). Some of what's possible on day one: You give it a target allocation (say 60% $BTC, 20% $ETH, 20% $SOL) and tell it to set limit orders at 5%, 10%, and 15% dips so you build the position gradually. Or you ask it to find the best DCA window. It pulls 30 days of hourly price data, finds when $ETH historically trades cheapest, and sets a recurring $20 buy at that hour every day. It can also watch your idle cash around the clock and put it to work earning rewards. Worried about giving an AI full access to your portfolio? Your Coinbase agent can live in an isolated portfolio with zero visibility into your other holdings, where it only touches what you've explicitly permissioned. Soon you'll be able to set hard caps too: Max trade size, what it can interact with, how much it can spend. Coinbase compares it to giving your agent a gift card instead of your bank account. Every payment also runs through the same KYT and transaction monitoring as the rest of Coinbase. What's coming next: Stocks, index funds, prediction markets, and commodities. If it trades on Coinbase, they want your agent trading it. Plus x402 payments, so your agent can buy its own data and services to inform trades - and a remote MCP that connects with just a Coinbase sign-in, no API keys. They also dropped Coinbase Advisor, an AI advisor inside the Coinbase app that's registered with the SEC and CFTC. Coinbase has been building toward this since AgentKit in 2024, then x402 last year. The bet being that people swill stop using apps and start using agents. (With Coinbase becoming the account those agents plug into.)

Wall Street just erased $2 TRILLION from software stocks and gave the wreck a name: The SaaSpocalypse. Our lead crypto analyst, @m0xt_, thinks the market just made a $2T sorting error, and he published a full report on where the money gets made (save this). Let's talk damage first... $CRM fell about 30%. $WDAY fell 33%. The main software index lost more than 20% in a single quarter. And for the first time on record, software trades at a lower earnings multiple than the average S&P 500 company. The market's golden child of two decades is priced like a dying industry. The accused killer is the AI agent: Software that does the work itself instead of helping a human do it - It resolves the ticket... It reconciles the invoice... So if an agent can do the job... Why pay for software that just helps a human do it? The bear case is serious, and @m0xt_ gives it real respect: 1. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said most business apps are basically databases with some rules on top. If an agent can talk to the database directly, the screens in between lose their reason to exist. 2. Per-seat pricing is built on a number that AI shrinks. Atlassian just logged its first ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Workday cut 8.5% of its own workforce. 3. Cursor went from zero to $2B in annual revenue in roughly 3 years, the fastest ramp in business software history. 4. The selloff's biggest leg down came when Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI desktop worker that runs multi-step workflows on its own. But @m0xt_ found four cracks in the funeral story: Deutsche Bank says it doesn't know of a single software company expecting AI to hurt revenue this year. In Q1 2026, 14 of the 16 software names covered by one Morningstar analyst beat on both the top and bottom line. In the real software busts (2001, 2008, 2022), earnings collapsed with the stocks. This time the stocks fell and the earnings kept climbing. That gap has to close one way or the other. → The agents aren't ready just yet. Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects get canceled by the end of 2027, and says only about 130 of the thousands of vendors selling "AI agents" are the real thing. The rest are slapping the agent label on old chatbots. → The poster child of AI adoption changed its mind. Klarna cut hundreds of software tools and 1,200 employees after building an AI support system it said did the work of 700 people. Then quality slipped, Klarna started rehiring humans, and the CEO publicly said he doesn't think this is the end of Salesforce. → Nobody is actually leaving. No churn wave in Q1, and not one major vendor has reported customers walking away for home-built AI. So the market is pricing a takeover by a workforce of agents that, today, mostly can't be left alone with the keys. The one-sentence thesis from @m0xt_ goes like this: AI kills software that helps humans use tools, and feeds software that gets work done. The market is pricing both for the same funeral. Companies poured an estimated $30-40B into generative AI, and one widely cited MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots produced no measurable return. A model produces words and suggestions, but a business needs the invoice reconciled and the ticket closed, with a record of who approved it and rules about who was allowed to do it. Raw intelligence is cheap → trusted, finished work is not. And the selloff just put the companies that sell finished work on sale. Software trades around 23x forward earnings, down from over 80x at the 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the selloff "too broad." When everything gets sold for the same reason, the companies the reason doesn't apply to go on sale by accident. @m0xt_ is testing the thesis on three names: $NOW (ServiceNow) runs the plumbing of big companies: IT requests, HR cases, security incidents. A 98% renewal rate means customers almost never leave. Contracted future revenue hit $28.2B, up 26%. $CRM (Salesforce) is the stress test. If SaaS were truly dead, this should be the most exposed name on the board - and the market treated it that way: the stock fell roughly 50%. Its agent product, Agentforce, sits near $800M in ARR, up 169%. $TOST (Toast) runs restaurants - orders, payments, payroll. Roughly half its recurring revenue comes from payment processing, so it earns when its restaurants earn. You can't seat-compress a payments stream. Each name comes with exact tripwires in the report: The numbers that prove the thesis right, and the numbers that would make @m0xt_ admit he's wrong and cut. And he didn't stop at writing. Off the back of this report, he opened a brand new position in his portfolio: One of the three stocks above, at a specific entry price, with preset triggers for buying more and for selling. PRO members can see which stock, the entry, and every trigger right now. It costs $1 to find out which one he bought. Link in the first comment 👇

Wall Street just erased $2 TRILLION from software stocks and gave the wreck a name: The SaaSpocalypse. Our lead crypto analyst, @m0xt_, thinks the market just made a $2T sorting error, and he published a full report on where the money gets made (save this). Let's talk damage first... $CRM fell about 30%. $WDAY fell 33%. The main software index lost more than 20% in a single quarter. And for the first time on record, software trades at a lower earnings multiple than the average S&P 500 company. The market's golden child of two decades is priced like a dying industry. The accused killer is the AI agent: Software that does the work itself instead of helping a human do it - It resolves the ticket... It reconciles the invoice... So if an agent can do the job... Why pay for software that just helps a human do it? The bear case is serious, and @m0xt_ gives it real respect: 1. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said most business apps are basically databases with some rules on top. If an agent can talk to the database directly, the screens in between lose their reason to exist. 2. Per-seat pricing is built on a number that AI shrinks. Atlassian just logged its first ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Workday cut 8.5% of its own workforce. 3. Cursor went from zero to $2B in annual revenue in roughly 3 years, the fastest ramp in business software history. 4. The selloff's biggest leg down came when Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI desktop worker that runs multi-step workflows on its own. But @m0xt_ found four cracks in the funeral story: Deutsche Bank says it doesn't know of a single software company expecting AI to hurt revenue this year. In Q1 2026, 14 of the 16 software names covered by one Morningstar analyst beat on both the top and bottom line. In the real software busts (2001, 2008, 2022), earnings collapsed with the stocks. This time the stocks fell and the earnings kept climbing. That gap has to close one way or the other. → The agents aren't ready just yet. Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects get canceled by the end of 2027, and says only about 130 of the thousands of vendors selling "AI agents" are the real thing. The rest are slapping the agent label on old chatbots. → The poster child of AI adoption changed its mind. Klarna cut hundreds of software tools and 1,200 employees after building an AI support system it said did the work of 700 people. Then quality slipped, Klarna started rehiring humans, and the CEO publicly said he doesn't think this is the end of Salesforce. → Nobody is actually leaving. No churn wave in Q1, and not one major vendor has reported customers walking away for home-built AI. So the market is pricing a takeover by a workforce of agents that, today, mostly can't be left alone with the keys. The one-sentence thesis from @m0xt_ goes like this: AI kills software that helps humans use tools, and feeds software that gets work done. The market is pricing both for the same funeral. Companies poured an estimated $30-40B into generative AI, and one widely cited MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots produced no measurable return. A model produces words and suggestions, but a business needs the invoice reconciled and the ticket closed, with a record of who approved it and rules about who was allowed to do it. Raw intelligence is cheap → trusted, finished work is not. And the selloff just put the companies that sell finished work on sale. Software trades around 23x forward earnings, down from over 80x at the 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the selloff "too broad." When everything gets sold for the same reason, the companies the reason doesn't apply to go on sale by accident. @m0xt_ is testing the thesis on three names: $NOW (ServiceNow) runs the plumbing of big companies: IT requests, HR cases, security incidents. A 98% renewal rate means customers almost never leave. Contracted future revenue hit $28.2B, up 26%. $CRM (Salesforce) is the stress test. If SaaS were truly dead, this should be the most exposed name on the board - and the market treated it that way: the stock fell roughly 50%. Its agent product, Agentforce, sits near $800M in ARR, up 169%. $TOST (Toast) runs restaurants - orders, payments, payroll. Roughly half its recurring revenue comes from payment processing, so it earns when its restaurants earn. You can't seat-compress a payments stream. Each name comes with exact tripwires in the report: The numbers that prove the thesis right, and the numbers that would make @m0xt_ admit he's wrong and cut. And he didn't stop at writing. Off the back of this report, he opened a brand new position in his portfolio: One of the three stocks above, at a specific entry price, with preset triggers for buying more and for selling. PRO members can see which stock, the entry, and every trigger right now. It costs $1 to find out which one he bought. Link in the first comment 👇

Why should people stay in crypto when AI is where its all happening? Raoul Pal: "People don't have to stay in crypto." "Your job is to be a mercenary for your own capital. You want to make the most money over time." "For me, I still think it [crypto] compounds higher returns than most of these stocks." FT @RaoulGMI @KevinWSHPod @RealVision.

Wall Street just erased $2 TRILLION from software stocks and gave the wreck a name: The SaaSpocalypse. Our lead crypto analyst, @m0xt_, thinks the market just made a $2T sorting error, and he published a full report on where the money gets made (save this). Let's talk damage first... $CRM fell about 30%. $WDAY fell 33%. The main software index lost more than 20% in a single quarter. And for the first time on record, software trades at a lower earnings multiple than the average S&P 500 company. The market's golden child of two decades is priced like a dying industry. The accused killer is the AI agent: Software that does the work itself instead of helping a human do it - It resolves the ticket... It reconciles the invoice... So if an agent can do the job... Why pay for software that just helps a human do it? The bear case is serious, and @m0xt_ gives it real respect: 1. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said most business apps are basically databases with some rules on top. If an agent can talk to the database directly, the screens in between lose their reason to exist. 2. Per-seat pricing is built on a number that AI shrinks. Atlassian just logged its first ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Workday cut 8.5% of its own workforce. 3. Cursor went from zero to $2B in annual revenue in roughly 3 years, the fastest ramp in business software history. 4. The selloff's biggest leg down came when Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI desktop worker that runs multi-step workflows on its own. But @m0xt_ found four cracks in the funeral story: Deutsche Bank says it doesn't know of a single software company expecting AI to hurt revenue this year. In Q1 2026, 14 of the 16 software names covered by one Morningstar analyst beat on both the top and bottom line. In the real software busts (2001, 2008, 2022), earnings collapsed with the stocks. This time the stocks fell and the earnings kept climbing. That gap has to close one way or the other. → The agents aren't ready just yet. Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects get canceled by the end of 2027, and says only about 130 of the thousands of vendors selling "AI agents" are the real thing. The rest are slapping the agent label on old chatbots. → The poster child of AI adoption changed its mind. Klarna cut hundreds of software tools and 1,200 employees after building an AI support system it said did the work of 700 people. Then quality slipped, Klarna started rehiring humans, and the CEO publicly said he doesn't think this is the end of Salesforce. → Nobody is actually leaving. No churn wave in Q1, and not one major vendor has reported customers walking away for home-built AI. So the market is pricing a takeover by a workforce of agents that, today, mostly can't be left alone with the keys. The one-sentence thesis from @m0xt_ goes like this: AI kills software that helps humans use tools, and feeds software that gets work done. The market is pricing both for the same funeral. Companies poured an estimated $30-40B into generative AI, and one widely cited MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots produced no measurable return. A model produces words and suggestions, but a business needs the invoice reconciled and the ticket closed, with a record of who approved it and rules about who was allowed to do it. Raw intelligence is cheap → trusted, finished work is not. And the selloff just put the companies that sell finished work on sale. Software trades around 23x forward earnings, down from over 80x at the 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the selloff "too broad." When everything gets sold for the same reason, the companies the reason doesn't apply to go on sale by accident. @m0xt_ is testing the thesis on three names: $NOW (ServiceNow) runs the plumbing of big companies: IT requests, HR cases, security incidents. A 98% renewal rate means customers almost never leave. Contracted future revenue hit $28.2B, up 26%. $CRM (Salesforce) is the stress test. If SaaS were truly dead, this should be the most exposed name on the board - and the market treated it that way: the stock fell roughly 50%. Its agent product, Agentforce, sits near $800M in ARR, up 169%. $TOST (Toast) runs restaurants - orders, payments, payroll. Roughly half its recurring revenue comes from payment processing, so it earns when its restaurants earn. You can't seat-compress a payments stream. Each name comes with exact tripwires in the report: The numbers that prove the thesis right, and the numbers that would make @m0xt_ admit he's wrong and cut. And he didn't stop at writing. Off the back of this report, he opened a brand new position in his portfolio: One of the three stocks above, at a specific entry price, with preset triggers for buying more and for selling. PRO members can see which stock, the entry, and every trigger right now. It costs $1 to find out which one he bought. Link in the first comment 👇

Wall Street just erased $2 TRILLION from software stocks and gave the wreck a name: The SaaSpocalypse. Our lead crypto analyst, @m0xt_, thinks the market just made a $2T sorting error, and he published a full report on where the money gets made (save this). Let's talk damage first... $CRM fell about 30%. $WDAY fell 33%. The main software index lost more than 20% in a single quarter. And for the first time on record, software trades at a lower earnings multiple than the average S&P 500 company. The market's golden child of two decades is priced like a dying industry. The accused killer is the AI agent: Software that does the work itself instead of helping a human do it - It resolves the ticket... It reconciles the invoice... So if an agent can do the job... Why pay for software that just helps a human do it? The bear case is serious, and @m0xt_ gives it real respect: 1. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said most business apps are basically databases with some rules on top. If an agent can talk to the database directly, the screens in between lose their reason to exist. 2. Per-seat pricing is built on a number that AI shrinks. Atlassian just logged its first ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Workday cut 8.5% of its own workforce. 3. Cursor went from zero to $2B in annual revenue in roughly 3 years, the fastest ramp in business software history. 4. The selloff's biggest leg down came when Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI desktop worker that runs multi-step workflows on its own. But @m0xt_ found four cracks in the funeral story: Deutsche Bank says it doesn't know of a single software company expecting AI to hurt revenue this year. In Q1 2026, 14 of the 16 software names covered by one Morningstar analyst beat on both the top and bottom line. In the real software busts (2001, 2008, 2022), earnings collapsed with the stocks. This time the stocks fell and the earnings kept climbing. That gap has to close one way or the other. → The agents aren't ready just yet. Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects get canceled by the end of 2027, and says only about 130 of the thousands of vendors selling "AI agents" are the real thing. The rest are slapping the agent label on old chatbots. → The poster child of AI adoption changed its mind. Klarna cut hundreds of software tools and 1,200 employees after building an AI support system it said did the work of 700 people. Then quality slipped, Klarna started rehiring humans, and the CEO publicly said he doesn't think this is the end of Salesforce. → Nobody is actually leaving. No churn wave in Q1, and not one major vendor has reported customers walking away for home-built AI. So the market is pricing a takeover by a workforce of agents that, today, mostly can't be left alone with the keys. The one-sentence thesis from @m0xt_ goes like this: AI kills software that helps humans use tools, and feeds software that gets work done. The market is pricing both for the same funeral. Companies poured an estimated $30-40B into generative AI, and one widely cited MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots produced no measurable return. A model produces words and suggestions, but a business needs the invoice reconciled and the ticket closed, with a record of who approved it and rules about who was allowed to do it. Raw intelligence is cheap → trusted, finished work is not. And the selloff just put the companies that sell finished work on sale. Software trades around 23x forward earnings, down from over 80x at the 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the selloff "too broad." When everything gets sold for the same reason, the companies the reason doesn't apply to go on sale by accident. @m0xt_ is testing the thesis on three names: $NOW (ServiceNow) runs the plumbing of big companies: IT requests, HR cases, security incidents. A 98% renewal rate means customers almost never leave. Contracted future revenue hit $28.2B, up 26%. $CRM (Salesforce) is the stress test. If SaaS were truly dead, this should be the most exposed name on the board - and the market treated it that way: the stock fell roughly 50%. Its agent product, Agentforce, sits near $800M in ARR, up 169%. $TOST (Toast) runs restaurants - orders, payments, payroll. Roughly half its recurring revenue comes from payment processing, so it earns when its restaurants earn. You can't seat-compress a payments stream. Each name comes with exact tripwires in the report: The numbers that prove the thesis right, and the numbers that would make @m0xt_ admit he's wrong and cut. And he didn't stop at writing. Off the back of this report, he opened a brand new position in his portfolio: One of the three stocks above, at a specific entry price, with preset triggers for buying more and for selling. PRO members can see which stock, the entry, and every trigger right now. It costs $1 to find out which one he bought. Link in the first comment 👇

Wall Street just erased $2 TRILLION from software stocks and gave the wreck a name: The SaaSpocalypse. Our lead crypto analyst, @m0xt_, thinks the market just made a $2T sorting error, and he published a full report on where the money gets made (save this). Let's talk damage first... $CRM fell about 30%. $WDAY fell 33%. The main software index lost more than 20% in a single quarter. And for the first time on record, software trades at a lower earnings multiple than the average S&P 500 company. The market's golden child of two decades is priced like a dying industry. The accused killer is the AI agent: Software that does the work itself instead of helping a human do it - It resolves the ticket... It reconciles the invoice... So if an agent can do the job... Why pay for software that just helps a human do it? The bear case is serious, and @m0xt_ gives it real respect: 1. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said most business apps are basically databases with some rules on top. If an agent can talk to the database directly, the screens in between lose their reason to exist. 2. Per-seat pricing is built on a number that AI shrinks. Atlassian just logged its first ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Workday cut 8.5% of its own workforce. 3. Cursor went from zero to $2B in annual revenue in roughly 3 years, the fastest ramp in business software history. 4. The selloff's biggest leg down came when Anthropic launched Claude Cowork, an AI desktop worker that runs multi-step workflows on its own. But @m0xt_ found four cracks in the funeral story: Deutsche Bank says it doesn't know of a single software company expecting AI to hurt revenue this year. In Q1 2026, 14 of the 16 software names covered by one Morningstar analyst beat on both the top and bottom line. In the real software busts (2001, 2008, 2022), earnings collapsed with the stocks. This time the stocks fell and the earnings kept climbing. That gap has to close one way or the other. → The agents aren't ready just yet. Gartner predicts over 40% of agentic AI projects get canceled by the end of 2027, and says only about 130 of the thousands of vendors selling "AI agents" are the real thing. The rest are slapping the agent label on old chatbots. → The poster child of AI adoption changed its mind. Klarna cut hundreds of software tools and 1,200 employees after building an AI support system it said did the work of 700 people. Then quality slipped, Klarna started rehiring humans, and the CEO publicly said he doesn't think this is the end of Salesforce. → Nobody is actually leaving. No churn wave in Q1, and not one major vendor has reported customers walking away for home-built AI. So the market is pricing a takeover by a workforce of agents that, today, mostly can't be left alone with the keys. The one-sentence thesis from @m0xt_ goes like this: AI kills software that helps humans use tools, and feeds software that gets work done. The market is pricing both for the same funeral. Companies poured an estimated $30-40B into generative AI, and one widely cited MIT study found 95% of corporate AI pilots produced no measurable return. A model produces words and suggestions, but a business needs the invoice reconciled and the ticket closed, with a record of who approved it and rules about who was allowed to do it. Raw intelligence is cheap → trusted, finished work is not. And the selloff just put the companies that sell finished work on sale. Software trades around 23x forward earnings, down from over 80x at the 2021 peak. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon called the selloff "too broad." When everything gets sold for the same reason, the companies the reason doesn't apply to go on sale by accident. @m0xt_ is testing the thesis on three names: $NOW (ServiceNow) runs the plumbing of big companies: IT requests, HR cases, security incidents. A 98% renewal rate means customers almost never leave. Contracted future revenue hit $28.2B, up 26%. $CRM (Salesforce) is the stress test. If SaaS were truly dead, this should be the most exposed name on the board - and the market treated it that way: the stock fell roughly 50%. Its agent product, Agentforce, sits near $800M in ARR, up 169%. $TOST (Toast) runs restaurants - orders, payments, payroll. Roughly half its recurring revenue comes from payment processing, so it earns when its restaurants earn. You can't seat-compress a payments stream. Each name comes with exact tripwires in the report: The numbers that prove the thesis right, and the numbers that would make @m0xt_ admit he's wrong and cut. And he didn't stop at writing. Off the back of this report, he opened a brand new position in his portfolio: One of the three stocks above, at a specific entry price, with preset triggers for buying more and for selling. PRO members can see which stock, the entry, and every trigger right now. It costs $1 to find out which one he bought. Link in the first comment 👇