M.A. Rothman@MichaelARothman
𝗩𝗗𝗛: 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗦 𝗔𝗥𝗘 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗔𝗠𝗘 𝗗𝗜𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡.
Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it's worth listening to why.
His argument isn't based on what the Pentagon is saying. It's based on how everyone else is behaving.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀. VDH's rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn't help in the early days. Now they're starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It's a calculation. They've looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝘂𝗹𝗳 𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗼-𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris — these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachés, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war — they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States.
𝗔𝗹 𝗝𝗮𝘇𝗲𝗲𝗿𝗮. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera — the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel — is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘸𝘪𝘯.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH's point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming — Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining.
Iran's strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left.
VDH's conclusion: if Trump sees it through — and he believes he will — the regime falls. Not in years. 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗼𝗻.
𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗱𝗼, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝘀𝗮𝘆. 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮.
