Minh Phan

The Clawdfather, @steipete, single clawedly driving @Apple Mac Mini sales in Q1 2026. @openclaw is pretty freakin amazing, and oh, BTW, you don't need to run out and buy a brand new Mac Mini. It will run on just about anything. That being said, GarrAI loves being all nestled up inside of his shiny Mac!

I read somewhere that if we were to service all of the consumer inference demand and exclude energy required for AI-training, we're still at an enormous gigawatt shortfall which implies this supply / demand crunch persists longer than everyone thinks. This is a pretty interesting bottom up analysis: (drive.google.com/file/d/1n8WcKs…). With stuff like this I'm beginning to view $IREN now not as a multiyear hold but a 5-10 year old. I think it's becoming increasingly dubious that enormous gigawatt shortfall we have to service AI demand will be able to serviced. $ORCL / $CRWV, for instance are probably going to lose a lot of customers in their backlog. If everyone including your mother (Hut8 + Bit Digital / White Fibre) can obtain colocation deals for their gigawatts, it means: - hyperscalers are so desperate for power that they would sign with companies with absolutely no track record of operational excellence - market is not discerning at all between good operators and bad operators (just like it didn't do so for bitcoin mining) What this means over time is that: - the bad operators are going to become very apparent over time - backlog from these operators will be back onto the market and will find their way to the best operators ($IREN, $CIFR, etc.) - market will panic in the short term such that $IREN's stock price will crater - market will understand that $IREN is amongst the best operators that has scale - $IREN achieves scale such that it can afford to finance with little debt and no dilution Capex heavy projects related to its IaaS platform while incumbents with no scale will struggle to compete due to massive, upfront CapEx - market understands that $IREN has probably one of the best site procurement teams (extremely underrated fact) in the world such that they are perceived not as an outsider that will jack up electricity prices, but a friendly counterparty that is beneficial to the community - intense re-rate of $IREN stock price bringing it up to a multi-hundred billion dollar valuation There's a world out there where this crunch extends beyond what everyone, even within this group believes which means: - US is unable to solve the gigawatt shortfall with much disdain from $NBIS bulls who assign too high of a probability that their software will outcompete tech giants like Databricks, AWS, GCP, Azure overnight and who massively underrate the difficulty of developing infrastructure, securing power + sites, building next generation AI Factories that have never been done before in the history of mankind such that the only ways these datacenters will work is that if you have liquid cooling to service rack densities at 80 kw+, 130 kw+ , 200 kw+, 300 kw+ over time. I'm pretty sure very few companies, if any, in the world have a datacenter that will be able to service rack densities of 200+ kw by end of Q1 2026, $IREN will have that. - energized power at multi-hundred megawatt scales is valuable such that you can continue to build greenfield datacenters without tearing down old ones which will turn out to be economically viable for inference - because of $IREN's vertical integration and its superiority at fostering relationships with communities, securing power, securing land, having energized power and land, developing infrastructure with impressive speed / efficiency (including securing long-lead items), developing AI Factories, it will outrun both incumbents + existing hyperscalers over a long-time horizon. There is a chance 2026 / 2027 $IREN obtains escape velocity such that it's status as a datacenter company of the AI Era will be unrivaled. This is obviously making a lot of assumptions and ignores things like investor willingness to fund AI companies with no clear path to profitability + the overall demand side picture continue to play out + many other assumptions, but what if this does play out? What is the likelihood of this happenning? No one can be 100% sure, but my view is that the probability of this awesome but ridiculous scenario playing out over time has increased.