Tiger (eth | ronin)
952 posts
This is my fifth conversation with @GavinSBaker. Gavin understands semiconductors and AI as well as anyone I know and has a gift for making sense of the industry's complexity and nuance. We discuss: - Nvidia vs Google (GPUs + TPUs) - Scaling laws and reasoning models - The economics of AI compute - Why Blackwell's delay mattered - The bear case on the AI capex buildout - Data centers in space - The mistake SaaS companies are making Few people love investing more than Gavin. His closing answer about why he loves it turned into a full reflection on his investing origin story, which I had never heard before. Enjoy! Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 5:03 The Blackwell Transition 23:15 The Prisoner's Dilemma 27:12 The Bear Case: Edge AI 37:19 Meta, Open Source, and Model Depreciation 43:08 Geopolitics and Rare Earths 50:42 Data Centers in Space 56:06 Power Constraints as a Governor 1:11:31 The SaaS Mistake 1:16:17 Nuclear and Quantum 1:22:25 Gavin’s Investing Origins
Baron Capital Supports Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award Baron Capital is in support of the proposed 2025 CEO Performance Award. We believe it reflects the same principles of accountability, performance and alignment with shareholder interests that drove Tesla’s past success. The plan ensures that shareholders win first, and that Elon Musk continues to lead Tesla for many years to come. We commend the Board for recognizing this and for working to retain Tesla’s most valuable asset. We believe the 2025 CEO Performance Award is right for the company, right for shareholders and right for the future. Baron Capital has been investing in @Tesla since 2014. Our shareholders and clients have benefited enormously from @elonmusk’s vision, determination and execution. Tesla’s success and its future are inseparable from Elon. Elon is the ultimate “key man” of key man risk. Without his relentless drive and uncompromising standards, there would be no Tesla. He has built one of the most important companies in the world. He’s redefining transportation, energy and humanoid robotics and creating lasting value for shareholders while doing it. His interests are completely aligned with investors. He owns 13% of the company. We will be voting FOR. Supplemental Information When my analyst team met with Elon Musk for two hours in our New York City office in 2010 during Tesla’s IPO roadshow, we thought his plans were more hopeful than plausible. Only one of our Funds made a small investment in Tesla at that time. But because Elon is a very impressive executive, we monitored Tesla closely for the next few years. Our research included several visits to Tesla's factories in Fremont, California and Reno, Nevada and frequent phone calls with Tesla executives including Elon. In 2014 when sales of Model S began to increase significantly, I concluded we had been wrong thinking that Elon would not succeed. From 2014 to 2016 Baron Capital purchased approximately $400 million Tesla shares at prices that were about 13X higher than Tesla's IPO price! Tesla's shares have since increased more than 30X our purchase price in 2014. Baron Capital has earned about $8 billion profits realized and unrealized from our Tesla shares for our clients and proprietary accounts. We began to purchase shares in another Musk business, @SpaceX, in 2017. We have invested about $1.3 billion to date in SpaceX. We have since earned about $4 billion profits realized and unrealized on those SpaceX purchases. Our recent $338 million investment in Elon's @xAI data center, social network and Grok AI, has produced about $340 million profits realized and unrealized to date. Profits earned from Musk-controlled businesses represent about 24% of the $52 billion profits we have earned for clients and proprietary accounts since 1992 when we managed $100 million in assets. Musk entities, due to their significant capital appreciation, now represent about 26% of our Firm's $44 billion AUM. We believe that Baron Capital could earn at least 5X the profits we have generated to date from the Musk ecosystem by 2035. If we are right, the beneficiaries of this success will be the estimated 1 million-plus working class and mass affluent, Baron mutual fund shareholders...their IRAs and 401(k) retirement accounts...as well as our institutional clients including endowments, foundations and sovereigns...and, looking through those entities, millions of additional individuals. Further, we think the impact of our investments in Tesla is far greater than the amounts we manage directly. This belief is based on the fact that virtually every day when I am walking on the streets of New York City or in restaurants or traveling...people approach me to say, "Thank you, Ron. You have changed my life!" That is since, for the past twelve years, I have appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box three or four times a year and have spoken about Tesla...and lately SpaceX, too...and investors have obviously been watching and listening. Tesla's bonus contract with Elon has been written to achieve an objective to get Robotaxi and Optimus robots to scale. If successful, Tesla could earn $400 billion per year in adjusted EBITDA for an extended period by 2035. That could produce a market capitalization for Tesla of over $8 trillion. We believe by 2045 Tesla value could quadruple its 2035 levels. Tesla’s current market cap is $1.5 trillion. Elon will only achieve his full bonus payout if those objectives are met. Tesla shareholders benefit before he does by reaching aggressive market cap objectives that few believe can be attained. We think it is unlikely at this time anyone, but Elon could accomplish those objectives. We believe Elon is not only perhaps the most extraordinary engineer on our planet but an unusually competent businessperson. If he did not live in this country, we think it improbable there would be electric cars...reusable space rockets...Starlink broadband satellites...self-driving cars...giant storage batteries that can be added to America's electric utility grid quickly to provide required energy for AI data centers’ growth in our country...a satellite system protecting our homeland...super-fast manufacturing lines...AI digitizing physical processes...and who knows what else... We also deem it important that another element in Elon's bonus contract is succession. Tesla has 124,000 employees. The company hires only a small fraction of the millions of applicants from top engineering schools for Tesla engineering jobs. I found the comment of one Tesla Board member to me recently especially memorable: "Other AI businesses hire mercenary engineers. Tesla hires brilliant young engineers and trains them. Why would they ever want to leave?" Elon meets regularly with 30 to 40 engineers at a time in a room to discuss their work in various disciplines. And help solve problems they may be facing. Another Board member noted that when those employees leave the room, most are shaking their heads. The common refrain is that solutions to tasks they had thought unsolvable were outlined by Elon. On the fly. "I can't believe what we are learning," was heard most often from the best and brightest. It is rare that a senior executive challenges his prior assumptions recursively. Elon does. In my opinion, culture and people at Musk companies are unmatched at any publicly owned business I have visited in my 55-year career. That's because of him. From the large pool of awesome, talented engineers Elon is assembling, it should be possible to create an executive team to succeed Elon at some distant future point...if he ever decides he's done... If Elon ever leaves Tesla, we believe it's certainly not to sit on a beach somewhere drinking Mai Tai cocktails! On Mars, maybe. But a beach in the Caribbean? No way. Ron Baron (@RonBaronAnalyst) Founder CEO Baron Capital November 3, 2025 ______________________ You should consider the investment objectives, risk, charges, and expense of any of the Baron Funds carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about Baron Funds. You may obtain one from its distributor, Baron Capital, Inc., by calling 1-800-99-BARON or visiting BaronCapitalGroup.com. Please read it carefully before investing. The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance can be no guarantee of future results. Risks: All investments are subject to risk and may lose value. The discussion of market trends is not intended as advice to any person regarding the advisability of investing in any particular security. The views expressed in this document reflect those of the respective writer. Some of our comments are based on management expectations and are considered “forward-looking statements.” Actual future results, however, may prove to be different from our expectations. Our views reflect our best judgment at the time and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions and Baron Capital has no obligation to update them. Portfolio Holdings as a Percentage of Net Assets as of September 30, 2025: Tesla, Inc. - Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (4.3%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (9.7%), Baron Global Opportunity Fund (1.9%), Baron Opportunity Fund (6.0%), Baron Partners Fund (33.2%*), Baron Technology Fund (5.2%); Space Exploration Technologies Corporation - Baron Asset Fund (6.3%), Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (1.5%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (11.6%), Baron Global Opportunity Fund (10.4%), Baron Opportunity Fund (4.5%), Baron Partners Fund (18.1%*); X.AI Holdings Corp. - Baron Asset Fund (3.2%), Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund (0.8%), Baron Focused Growth Fund (2.2%), Baron Opportunity Fund (1.2%), Baron Partners Fund (0.7%*). *% of Long Positions. Portfolio holdings are subject to change. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. BAMCO, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Baron Capital, Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (FINRA).