You’re Missen the Point

Israel just got caught red-handed firing missiles at Diego Garcia from a submarine And we're not doing anything about it.

🚨 JUST IN: In a jaw-dropping declaration, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi announced his long-prepared "Transition System" is now fully staffed with qualified Iranians inside and outside the country and ready to take control the moment the Islamic Republic collapses.

🚨BREAKING: ALL GULF EXPORTERS WILL NEED TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON OIL IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS⚠️ -Qatar Oil Minister “Everybody that has not called for force majeure, we expect will do so in the next few days if [the war] continues,” Saad bin al-Kaabi, Qatar’s oil minister, told reporters. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure." Buckle Up. Hope you have PHYSICAL assets...

Look, yesterday I said there was maybe a 25% chance that this war could end with the use of tactical nuclear weapons to obliterate Iran’s 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, the amount that could theoretically produce about 11 nuclear warheads. That was the doomsday scenario. But today, after watching how things are unfolding, I think there is another path emerging, it has a 50% likelihood! What I would call the mother of all deals. Here is my thinking. If you want the Islamic Republic to give up its 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, you need leverage. Real leverage. Something the regime cannot live without. And that leverage has a name: Kharg Island. For those who don’t follow oil logistics, Kharg Island is not just another island in the Gulf. It is Iran’s economic jugular. Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports leave the country through that island terminal. Millions of barrels per day. It is, quite literally, the golden goose that lays the golden eggs for the regime. Now imagine the following scenario. The US military already this morning neutralised the island’s defences, the naval units guarding it, the missiles, the air defenses, the IRGC garrison. Now that umbrella is gone, Kharg becomes what strategists call a sitting duck in the Gulf waters, literally. 🦆 And then comes the strategic move: seize the island with all the oil facilities intact. Because the facilities are the bargaining chip. And once you have that island, the negotiation becomes very simple: “You want your island back? Fine. Hand over the 460 kg. Every gram. Not one kilogram missing. Then you get your oil terminal back.” It’s brutal leverage, but in strategic terms it’s actually kind of genius. Trump basically taking the Ayatollahs’ golden goose, pointing a literal gun at its head, and saying: “Give us the highly enriched stuff… Or I will blow up the stuff out of the goose.” Now of course the Ayatollahs could respond with bravado. They could say: “Fine. Keep the island. We’ll survive. We’ll continue to harass the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll endure.” .. in fact, they might start bombing the island themselves to target US forces there, but then they risk damaging the very thing they could very soon depend on for survival cash!💰 So what you get is a standoff. An island. A nuclear stockpile. A lot of very tense bargaining. Trump on one side. The Ayatollahs on the other. And everyone playing a very uncomfortable mind game of who blinks first. Honestly, the whole thing sounds less like traditional strategic geopolitics and more like a script from “Lost” 😅 except the scriptwriters themselves are lost.😵‍💫 But if you ask me (and this is just my opinion, my own calculation looking at the board right now) this scenario is no longer a mere possibility. If I were a betting man, I would say this is now the most likely outcome. 50% probability. The war turning into a very strange standoff over a small island in the Gulf - an island that happens to control 90% of Iran’s oil exports and might end up deciding the fate of 460 kilograms of uranium. I personally prefer this option. It’s less bloody and more predictable.

Fuel rationing “is not being contemplated”, says Energy Minister Chris Bowen. He has announced measures to release an extra 800m litres of diesel and petrol from stockpiles.

Is it just me, or is the Strait of Hormuz situation giving off major early-2020 COVID vibes? 🚩 The "everything is fine" official narrative feels eerily familiar just before the wheels fall off. Case in point: The US Energy Secretary says the reserve release will take “about 120 days to fully deliver.” That’s 4 months. We don’t have 4 months if the tap stays off Living in Oz, I’m looking at our 30-day fuel supply and thjinking: ⛽ How long until we see rationing at petrol stations? 🛒 When does the run on supermarket shelves and toilet paper actually start? (dont ask me why by Australians love going for toilet paper first) If the Strait stays closed for even a few more weeks, the "just-in-time" supply chain is cooked. We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends for the folks at the bottom of the chain. Hopefully Im wrong. But the gap between the "official word" and the reality at the bowser is widening fast Im off to supermarket, pharmacist and petrol station, back later 😉