J.T. Alexander@JTAlexander_
Major notes from the weekend on Iran:
1) Combined Force strikes started hitting IRGC Ground Forces units in the Kurdish regions.
2) We have confirmed that IRGC members are at least two cycles behind on pay.
3) *Coincidentally,* I'm sure, the IRGC Ground Forces Commander went on a tour visiting these forces.
In combination, these three notes indicate a high risk of desertion throughout the IRGC.
4) Separately, we have the attack on Diego Garcia that, frankly, justifies the war in and of itself. The base itself isn't terribly significant, its not that "Iran can get Diego Garcia! We have to go to war!"
The issue is that Iran constantly lies about everything to do with its nuclear program. Taqiyya. They've issued fatwas against nuclear weapons, then simultaneously enrich uranium to levels only usable in weapons while developing long-range ballistic missiles.
"Its for medical purposes!"
No, it wasn't, and it couldn't be. Uranium enriched to this degree has no medical uses.
"Its for self-defense!"
Then why were you hiding a long range ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to London?
The fact they were developing these weapons while consistently lying about it, in the face of all the world being united against their acquisition of the weapons, combined with all of their past acts of terrorism and piracy, absolutely justifies this war.
5) On Negotiations: These are being played very close to the chest, but here's what I've been able to gather...
Witkoff and Kushner are keeping lines of communication open with non-IRGC elements of the Iranian State—if I had to guess, I'd expect officials within the Republican Government. If not Pezeshkian himself, then probably people with access to him.
It seems abundantly clear that the situation in Iran is at this point A Tale of Two Cities.
One is an IRGC-Cleric alliance propping up the corpse of the Velayat-e Faqih.
The other is the Republican-Reform alliance propping up the still in-tact organs of state outside of the IRGC's control.
We are almost certainly negotiating with one of these 'cities,' and not the other. This is what I expected would be the prelude to final resolution. The existing power structures in Iran will continue to pull support away from, and rallying support against, the IRGC.
At this point, it appears the plan is to reach a pre-negotiated settlement with the Republican-Reform Government while hammering the IRGC on all available fronts and enabling a fairly smooth transition of power.
Mass uprising is probably now the backup plan, with total dismantling of Iran's infrastructure the backup to the backup plan.
