
Mith
9.8K posts

Mith
@Mith_
Lithium-focused researcher decoding critical mineral extraction, battery production, storage, and recycling, while occasionally exploring EV op-eds.



$ABAT reported Q3 FY26 earnings. $ABAT for who do not know is a domestic critical minerals play executing on two fronts: lithium-ion battery recycling and lithium production from one of the largest U.S. claystone deposits. Let's go through the numbers and this time (not like with $ALMU) they actually matter Q3 revenue came in at $7.8M, a 64% sequential increase from the prior quarter, while cash costs of goods sold (COGS) grew only 11%, signaling operational leverage. Non-cash items like depreciation and stock-based compensation bring GAAP gross costs to $7.8M for the quarter, but on an adjusted cash basis, COGS was approximately $5.8M. That means ABTC achieved a $2M adjusted gross profit, its first ever positive gross margin. Year-to-date (nine months into FY26), $ABAT has generated $13.5M in revenue against cash COGS of approximately $14M and management guided for a continued ramp into Q4. Balance sheet looks healthy: $38.5M in cash, zero debt. Zero equity was raised this quarter no ATM usage, no warrant exercises. A quick note on stock compensation, because the accounting can look confusing. On paper, this expense jumps wildly from quarter to quarter. Why? Because accounting rules force the company to record an expense whenever they guess a future milestone (like finishing a facility build or hitting a revenue target) might be hit. But ignoring accounting, and looking at reality, the company is steadily giving about 1 million shares every quarter to its employees. We actually like this. It means everyone from the engineers to the plant workers gets a piece of the pie, not just the executives at the top. CEO Ryan Melsert in the call explicitly stated: "Separate from our financials, at ABTC, we do think it's important that really all employees have company shares as part of their compensation agreements. This is throughout the entire structure of the company itself." LOVE IT!!!! Two Business Lines, Both Moving 🏗️ Battery Recycling — Nevada Facility🥇 Revenue growth was driven by increased capacity utilization at the Reno facility. Feed sources are also diversifying. A significant portion of their intake now comes from large energy storage systems supporting data centers and AI infrastructure. They also handle CERCLA-classified material (hazardous waste) and universal waste through partnerships with government agencies. This is very relevant since this is a highly defensible feed stream that standard recyclers aren't permitted to use. Given the operational success of the first facility, construction of a second recycling facility is now moving forward, expected to be located in the Southeast U.S. in the middle of the emerging American "Battery Belt" where OEMs are currently building gigafactories. Site selection was done in close consultation with supply chain partners. An announcement is expected shortly. Tonopah Flats — Primary Lithium The Tonopah Flats Lithium Project in Nevada is one of the largest identified lithium deposits in the U.S. Following the completion of its Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) last fall, $ABAT is now advancing its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) the final engineering and financial analysis required before financing deals can be locked in. Scale here is significant: the project is targeting 30,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. Based on the PFS economics, production costs are modeled at roughly $4,300 per tonne. At conservative long-term lithium pricing of $15,000–$20,000/tonne, a facility of this size could generate $450M to $600M in annual revenue at full scale. The project already carries a $2.57 billion After-Tax Net Present Value (mkt cap of $ABAT is now less than half a billion). The project has been designated a covered project under the FAST-41 federal permitting program (take it as a federal "fast pass", so less bureaucracy). The land sits entirely on BLM-managed territory, and all baseline environmental studies (started in fall 2022) have been completed and reviewed. With a $900M preliminary approval letter from the US Export-Import Bank already in hand, the completion of the DFS will be instrumental to finalize construction funding, and commercial operations to start by the end of the decade. SO MOST LIKELY TONOPAH WILL BE ON LINE AND FULLY OPERATIONAL AROUND 2030. The Risks 🚨 - The second facility and Tonopah DFS both require flawless execution without major delays or cost overruns. - Lithium and battery material spot prices remain volatile and directly affect revenue. - Stock-based compensation is meaningful and can swing GAAP results from quarter to quarter. Our Take The 64% sequential revenue jump it reflects operational scaling. The balance sheet is a very good and the second facility is coming. The lithium project has federal support and fast-tracked permitting behind it. We hold $ABAT and we think is a very long term play (4 years). We will add slowly to our position, but yes there is plenty of time to accumulate. We will keep providing coverage on the company. Stay tuned.

Today, all #lithium prices, domestic and seaborne, as well as chemical and ore, and spot and futures, plunged in the Chinese market. A new shift may be about to take place. As anticipated, we have reached backwardation with the m-t futures price, which also means the end of 7 consecutive days of rising $Li2CO3 prices. A completely new short-term bottom might be in the works.




@DB_6556 @MarcMil65466441 They reported a $9.3m LOSS. Their mining operation is still a pipedream - this is where the REAL money is. They had a federal grant WITHDRAWN, which they're still appealing, and no further government commitments so far. Are we talking about the same company?






Conservatives have long argued that environmental overregulation makes it too hard to build. Now, as some on the Left are making similar arguments, you’d think permitting reform would be an easy win. Instead, fractures on the Right are helping stall it. My latest @dcexaminer


@Veritatem2021 @graeme_cobb Here’s an overview of the relevant numbers …




$ADTX 1 for 27 reverse split will put this in the mid 1$ range at 510K float something we haven’t seen since $SMX which went to like 300$ this is an absolute pig but I’m in in case they pump it 13.7 million float , 1 for 27 puts it at 510K


MIN: Do you know how much new energy China put online last year? BURGUM: Intermittent or base load? MIN: All energy. 543 GW. How much was renewable? 434 GW. BURGUM: But only when the wind is blowing and sun is shining MIN: Meanwhile, the US put up 53 GW of new energy last year -- less than 10% of China. You're clear bias against renewables is harming our national security.


WOW… $MP $USAR $AREC $UURAF $ALOY $UAMY $ABAT $MTMCF The “Army Organic Industrial Base Mineral Partnerships Act of 2026” bill would allow private companies to partner directly with Army industrial facilities to recover, process, and handle critical minerals using Army-controlled land, infrastructure, waste streams, and byproducts. This is NOT just about mining. The language heavily focuses on: • Processing • Recovery • Recycling • Waste stream extraction The Army can receive: • Cash • Minerals • Processed materials • Equipment • Infrastructure upgrades …and KEEP the proceeds to modernize Army industrial facilities. The bill specifically mentions: • Rare Earths • Lithium • Nickel • Titanium This is another massive signal that the United States government now views critical mineral processing and supply chains as a national security issue. Processing is the bottleneck. Not the rocks in the ground.





Thats a ridiculous statement. You have no idea how many batteries that would take, how much space it takes to hold them securely (fire concerns and securing them from outsider threat), and the environmental impact that those batteries have when you need to dispose of them. Its a ridiculous, stupid statement for grandstanding, which is the only thing govt is about anymore. So freaking stupid.











